Languish.org

QuoteNATO says Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine

BRUSSELS Wed Aug 6, 2014 7:55am EDT

 (Reuters) - Russia has amassed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's eastern border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian or peace-keeping mission to invade, NATO said on Wednesday.
......

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

Quote from: Viking on August 06, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
When was the last time we had a war where both sides had armor divisions?

Quote from: Viking on August 06, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
When was the last time we had a war where both sides had armor divisions?

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 04:25:22 PM
I don't think anything will happen.  They will need more than 20,000 troops to do anything.  They had more than that massed at the border before and then backed down.  Uncle Vlad may be trying to scare, intimidate, or provoke the Ukes but I don't see him invading.

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 04:27:45 PM

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

The UK sent the 1st Armoured Division.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Iraq_(2003)_order_of_battle

Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 05:04:37 PM
Actually guys I believe the Brits sent their 1st Armored Division to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 05:10:52 PM
Actually, a more interesting question is when did armoured divisions clash in a war that wan't a one-sided drubbing.  ;)

My guess would be the Iran-Iraq War.

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 06:55:57 PM
East Ukrainian op has been a clusterfuck for the Russians.

QuoteAnd the Ukes have been blooded and turned into implacable enemies and will crush the Russian proxy forces on present trends. The eastern regions have not really rallied to the Russian cause. This will cost the Russians, dearly.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.

The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.

The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2014, 11:40:23 PM
A rich, mellifluous metaphor.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

It's not about gaining, it's about avoiding a loss.  The Russian media has zombified the Russian populace into believing that the "separatists" are brave freedom fighters defending themselves against fascist junta.  Letting them get slaughtered wouldn't go down well.  I guess you can zombify them again to convince them that it's no big deal, but nationalist propaganda is dangerous because it tends to work like a ratchet.  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 07, 2014, 12:24:45 AM

Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

I can't help but see a flaw in this as a long term strategy.  Russia isn't the USSR, it sorta needs that trade with the evil West.  Russia is no liberal democracy but they aren't a police state either.  If food prices increase to much and lots of people lose their jobs,  Putin could face an uprising or a coup.  I would like to state that this isn't a desirable for us either.  Instability in Russia could lead to honest to God civil war or someone much worse then Putin.

Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

QuoteRussia is working on measures to close its airspace to Asia, Pacific-bound flights

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia

MOSCOW, August 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia is working on measures to close its airspace to Western companies' flights to and from the Asia-Pacific region and also to change the points of entry and exit for charter flights, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting of the Cabinet on Thursday.

"The current situation as it is, the Russian government is considering a number of retaliatory steps. I will mention some of them, but that does not mean that they will be introduced at once. The measures include a ban on transit flights by European and US air carriers to Southeast Asia, to the Asia-Pacific Region," Medvedev said.

"We are considering measures that would be an answer to the European Union's sanctions against the Russian air company Dobrolyot, which flied to Simferopol," he said.

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday.

He said the decision had already been taken.

Russia is working out measures to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said.

"Our country is ready to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, that is, denounce the agreed principles of upgrading the existing system of Trans-Siberian routes," he said at a government session.

The Russian Association of Air Transport Operators on Monday asked the government to take urgent measures to support the Dobrolet low-cost air carrier that has had to stop operation due to Western sanctions.

Russia's Dobrolyot, a low-cost airline, is 100-percent subsidiary of Russia's biggest air carrier Aeroflot. Its fleet includes two Boeings 737-800 NG and one Sukhoi Superjet-100. By the end of 2014, the company planned to add six more Boeings to its fleet. Both of its Boeings are leased from BBAM Aircraft Leasing and Management.

The Russian government is ready to introduce protective measures in the aircraft building, shipbuilding and automobile manufacturing industries, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

"We are potentially ready to introduce protective measures in aircraft building, shipbuilding, automobile manufacturing industries and in other sectors, but we will do this sensibly," he said.
The prime minister also said the government realised the importance of co-operation in this sphere and looked realistically on the country's capabilities.

Quote from: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 04:16:38 AM

Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

yeah its maddening but IIRC there were voices like that about the Soviet Union as well for quite a while.

Quote from: mongers on August 06, 2014, 04:13:07 PM

Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

To a large extent I agree.

There was a time within the first week after the Crimea takeover, when Ukrainian morale was so low, Russian forces could have occupied all of East Ukraine in a couple of days.

Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 06:35:57 AM
Yeah, but there's a vocal minority at least who thinks that while Russia is an increasingly oppressive regime the West is governed by economic interest only, without compassion, or regard for the will of the people, and that it doesn't matter which political party is in charge.

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2014, 09:08:42 AM

Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Siegy would say you can lead a sheep goat to water, but you can't make him swim.

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2014, 07:12:14 PM
How many divisions are headquartered at Benning? I saw a shitload of tanks there and it's an infantry base. It was many hundreds of them at least.

Quote from: mongers on August 09, 2014, 04:09:31 PM
I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 09, 2014, 07:19:14 PM

Quote from: mongers on August 09, 2014, 04:09:31 PM
I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

I don't think he'll accept being defeated by Ukraine, which is how it'll seem.

There are also reports that he's fired all the people who warned him/were negative about this whole thing.

Add in the stories about Lavrov saying there's an impending humanitarian disaster in Donetsk and it seems more likely than not.

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 07:05:26 PM
If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

QuoteIf they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Quote from: Syt on August 09, 2014, 11:37:37 PM

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 07:05:26 PM
If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

Is there a possibility of a presidential decree extending the service period for the draftees because of "national crisis?"

QuoteIf they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Agreed, unless Putin is stupid enough to start a campaign across soggy/muddy terrain in Autumn.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 10, 2014, 06:16:30 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.

My guess now (since the Malaysian Air flight) is that he's improvising. I also don't think he'll tolerate being 'beaten' by Ukraine. If that's true, and I've no idea, then it seems a dangerous combo.

Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

As sweet as it would be to punish Putin and his supporters for destabilising the world, it would mean a volatile and unpredictable political situation in an already pretty radicalised power with thousands of nuclear warheads.

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central, eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.

Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:43:14 AM

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.

Russia is one of Spain's fastest growing export markets. And there's all the industry built around rich Russians coming on vacation, in a lot of high-endish stores stuff is labelled in euros, dollars and rubles.

Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:49:43 AM
No, I was saying that despite not depending on them for gas, we have strong economic ties with Russia.

Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:45:28 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

So Putin and Lieberman will control all gas to Europe?  :hmm:
Not sure if the Leviathan gas field claims are settled with the border in Lebanon still in dispute and the possible extent of a Gaza strip exclusive economic zone.
Last time I heard of it, Israel more or less shared it with Cyprus and Greece to export it to Europe. Could this possibly help fuel the animosity with Erdogan?

QuoteIn August 2010, Lebanon submitted to the United Nations its official view regarding the maritime border, indicating that it considered the Tamar and Leviathan gas fields to be outside Lebanese territory (though it indicated other prospective fields in the region may be within Lebanese territory). The US expressed support for the Lebanon proposal.

Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 11:33:00 AM

Dunno if any possible Gaza zone would impact them. In any event, the current lunatics in charge of that particular asylum are unlikely to be able to assert any claims.

Quote
Much more serious is tensions between Israel and Greek Cyprus on the one hand, and Turkey on the other. Naturally, the Turks would like a slice of the action, based on their invasion claims to Turkish Cyprus ... and they aren't on the best of terms with Israel at the moment puting it mildly.

Quote from: KRonn on August 11, 2014, 10:09:35 AMMy feeling is that Putin is nastily stuck between two vises of his own making. He's pretty badly stuck now. He can't afford to lose in Ukraine as it would be a huge loss of face, unless a face saving measure could be created but he's passed that up before. There's also his quest for territory for rebuilding Russia, which is his main motivation. So if the Ukrainian military continues to defeat the Russian operatives locals then he'll want to move in under the original guise of safeguarding the local Russian population and that line of propaganda.

However, the other side of the vise he's caught between is the idea that Ukraine isn't going to go quietly as Crimea did. Russian forces will be heavily engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces which will be a mess for him, even if he wins, which is most likely.  But he may push the West into creating real sanctions, such as the US finally deciding to more strongly develop natural gas with the idea of becoming the supplier for Europe in place of Russia. Russia can't afford that. Or there may be other energy measures which the West or US may put in place for the shorter term, since developing natural gas supplies to supply Europe would take at least a couple or few years to get going. But the long term energy strategy could be a problem for Putin if he overplays his hand.

Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM
In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!

Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM

Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!

Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

Quote from: derspiess on August 11, 2014, 01:09:15 PM
Russia has announced it will start sending "humanitarian" convoys into Ukraine.

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Quote from: crazy canuck on August 11, 2014, 03:33:41 PM

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through
strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory....


or alternatively Putin could have been reading the line

War is Peace



But I suspect he hasn't read his Orwell.

Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
I watched some Russian TV news this weekend.  Orwell was an amateur.  That wasn't a slanted coverage, that was Protocols of the Elders of Zion class of propaganda.  And it works very, very well.  :(

Quote from: The Brain on August 11, 2014, 03:59:35 PM

Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
I watched some Russian TV news this weekend.  Orwell was an amateur.  That wasn't a slanted coverage, that was Protocols of the Elders of Zion class of propaganda.  And it works very, very well.  :(

You support Putin officially now?

QuoteRussia sending aid convoy to Ukraine despite Western warnings of 'invasion pretext'

By Adrian Croft and Sergei Karpukhin

BRUSSELS/DONETSK Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:48pm EDT

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Monday Russia is sending an aid convoy to eastern Ukraine despite urgent Western warnings against using humanitarian help as a pretext for an invasion.

With Ukraine reporting Russia has massed 45,000 troops on its border, NATO said there was a "high probability" that Moscow could intervene militarily in the country's east, where Kiev's forces are closing in on pro-Russian separatists.

Western countries believe that Putin - who has whipped up the passions of Russians with a nationalist campaign in state-controlled media since annexing Crimea from Ukraine in March - could now send his forces into the east to head off a humiliating rebel defeat.
......

Quote from: Barrister on August 11, 2014, 05:15:24 PM
BBC reporting Ukraine has in fact agreed, though things seem very much "up in the air":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28743478

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 08:45:59 AM
Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 09:08:27 AM
I don't think Hungarian beets are going to be an acceptable alternative to French beef.  Maybe for you.

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:06:27 AM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 08:45:59 AM
Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.

It's not like other countries can't pick up the slack.  There are plenty of countries that look at sanctions as an opportunity, not a moral imperative.

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 12, 2014, 09:26:31 AM
Also, it's possible the aid convoy really is an aid convoy. Part of Russia's problem has been support for the anti-Kiev pro-Moscow movement in Eastern Ukraine hasn't been as expected, send some free stuff their way and it boosts Russia's standing among the people, I would think. It's similar to how Hamas built up so much loyalty in Gaza, they were the only political group that was doing humanitarian stuff (so was the UN and other groups, but they obviously don't run for Palestinian public offices.)

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.

Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 11:13:31 AM
Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 05:02:23 PM
Those snooty bohemians need to czech their privilege.

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

Quote from: PRC on August 12, 2014, 05:19:48 PM

Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

Sounds like Dan Carlin.

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 03:36:19 PM

Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM

Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Bohemia was as much a Czech state as the Hetmanate was a Ukrainian one.  Which is to say, a little bit, but not really.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 07:17:07 PM

Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.

From my understanding either the situation was really awful prior to EU accession, or it was barely improved.

There's still lots of statelessness and restrictions on education.

I think the Baltics (and Cyprus and Romania and Bulgaria and, maybe, Hungary) were let in too soon which meant a little weakening of standards.

Quote from: derspiess on August 12, 2014, 09:26:23 PM
Maybe the European community could use an organizer.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 07:17:07 PM

Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.

From my understanding either the situation was really awful prior to EU accession, or it was barely improved.

There's still lots of statelessness and restrictions on education.

I think the Baltics (and Cyprus and Romania and Bulgaria and, maybe, Hungary) were let in too soon which meant a little weakening of standards.

Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2014, 05:22:28 AM
Probably the matter of the aid trucks is settled: stuff from them shall be packed into Red Cross trucks at the border.

However, speaking of the border, it is now non-existent in a 100 kilometres wide sector: apparently while the Ukrainians were busy establishing the siege of Donetsk, the border guard forces at the south-east were surrounded by separatists. They held out for 3 weeks then now broke out and joined their main army at Donetsk, but as a result, there is absolutely no control over the Ukrainian-Russian border on a vast territory.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg3.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20130413124057%2Fcso%2Fimages%2F3%2F32%2FFacepalm.jpg&hash=1887ccff0d00485c63ccd1dc811456f60cc78a9e)

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AM

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Well they were put there to undermine the Baltic States' independence and enforce Russian power and control.  It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved.  You must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

Quote from: Berkut on August 13, 2014, 09:53:56 AMPeople can in fact be influence counters on a game board, when they are treated as such.

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AMThey were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:12:35 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AMThey were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

you seemed to be excusing the discrimination based off an event that occurred many decades ago.

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:17:15 AM

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

Think some of them have right?  Or at least it seems like something like that happened in Zimbabwe.

QuoteA soldier whose Instagram photos that appeared to show that Russian troops were operating covertly in eastern Ukraine says he is facing dishonorable discharge from the army after his Instagram account went viral.

Alexander Sotkin, a communications specialist who posted two Instagram photos that were geotagged inside Ukraine in July, said on Wednesday that he was facing discharge after he became an internet celebrity following a BuzzFeed story about his account.

"It hasn't really finished yet, command says that I'm a faggot who disgraced the unit, they're going to discharge me, plus all this score-settling after all the hype, baaasically there's not much good about it," Sotkin wrote in private message via VKontakte, the Russian social network similar to Facebook.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 03:19:21 PM
Betcha he loses a lot more than his livelihood.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:16:43 AMFirst this is the old world.  Things happen based off events that happened many centuries ago with regularity.

Second I was not excusing it so much as explaining why the EU was unlikely to be able to stop it.

Quote from: ValmyThink some of them have right?  Or at least it seems like something like that happened in Zimbabwe.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AM
Well they were put there to undermine the Baltic States' independence and enforce Russian power and control.  It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved.  You must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

QuoteThis point to a fundamental weakness in the EU, a ideologically motivated activist foreign policy without an organised military to provide substance/a back-bone.

QuoteSecond I was not excusing it so much as explaining why the EU was unlikely to be able to stop it.

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AM

Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

They were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They are victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

Edit: By the way really glad you are posting a lot more here.  You add a lot to the discussions.

Quote from: The Brain on August 13, 2014, 05:09:39 PM
Russians can go home to Russia.

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

QuoteWere they forced to move or was that were jobs were?  Seems like you can justify a lot of shit by not "ignoring the realities".

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:59:08 PM

Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Make democracy more appealing to those citizens than the alternative. Letting them experience democracy would be a good start.

Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 09:05:16 PM

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:59:08 PM

Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Make democracy more appealing to those citizens than the alternative. Letting them experience democracy would be a good start.

Democracy doesn't protect against peacekeeping tanks, planes, and artillery.

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 09:12:05 PMThat's irrelevant, since in this case NATO does.

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to the repression of minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 08:30:49 PM

QuoteWere they forced to move or was that were jobs were?  Seems like you can justify a lot of shit by not "ignoring the realities".

They were colonized there to solidify Soviet control.  I was not justifying anything.  I am not sure how saying 'It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved' means I think this is awesome or it is justified.  But these are ethnically based states, people of other ethnicities are fundamentally threatening to their existence, particularly ones from hostile neighboring countries.  That is why we fought those two world wars in Europe and all those millions of people died.  If you are going to have a state called 'Estonia' then it is going to be about the protection and sovereignty of Estonians and is going to be hostile to anything that threatens that.  Duh, water is wet.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 11:57:39 PM
Still I'm asking were all these people forced to live there?  I don't think either the Russian empire or the Soviet Union imagined it was going to collapse and thus wouldn't haven't of thought of themselves as "hostile neighbors" of their own state.  You are saying this is a not justification but a reality.  I don't know exactly what the difference is.  The line of thought seems similar to many radicals in Latin America.  American expats or business operating in foreign countries are part of American colonialism and are a existential threat to those countries.  I'd wager Fidel Castro thought something similar when he nationalized American companies in Cuba.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:26:48 PMEasy to say that when Sweden is under no serious attack.  If the safety and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes was in danger would there be no fearful actions?  If there was a country who you thought might roll in and take over at any minute?  It is called Sweden for a reason and not 'the piece of dirt in the area of the northern and western Baltic'.

Here in the United States we have people terrified of completely harmless minorities all the time.  It makes no logical sense, but in Estonia that minority actually DOES represent a existential threat.  One that could roll in and end Estonia's existence in hours.  However it is fundamentally evil to suppress minorities who individually have nothing to do with anything.  I feel bad for the Russians who are completely fucked by this sorry situation.  However I do have a hard time judging the Latvians and company too hard, because God knows what we would do in that situation.  I am glad I will never find out, the attitudes some people have around here to the Mexican and Latin American immigrants are hysterical enough and those people are about as threatening as a stiff breeze.

Anyway I was just saying that to get Latvia and the like to act differently you would need very coercive carrots and sticks.  Their national instincts are to hate and fear the Russians.

Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.

Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM

Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.

I tend to disagree. What is happening in Ukraine clearly shows that it was a very wise geopolitical move. Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM
Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

Quote from: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:49:50 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

No.  First of all, such tests are valuable for small countries like the Baltic states in reclaiming/preserving their national identities.  Secondly, those Russians are all eligible for Russian citizenship.  It would help Russia's demographic problem a bit if these folks were repatriated back to Mother Russia.  Win-win.

Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 10:40:36 AM
Where would you prefer to live, in Estonia or Latvia, even as a minority there, or in Russia? Russians there don't want to return to Russia for very good reasons.

Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
They were colonized there to solidify Soviet control.  I was not justifying anything.  I am not sure how saying 'It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved' means I think this is awesome or it is justified.

QuoteBut these are ethnically based states, people of other ethnicities are fundamentally threatening to their existence, particularly ones from hostile neighboring countries.  That is why we fought those two world wars in Europe and all those millions of people died.  If you are going to have a state called 'Estonia' then it is going to be about the protection and sovereignty of Estonians and is going to be hostile to anything that threatens that.  Duh, water is wet.

QuoteI wouldn't want to, either.  But I'm not Russian.  If their language, culture, etc. is so important to them then they should move to Russia.  Otherwise, make the effort to learn the majority language in that country to get citizenship there.  Unless I missed something, there doesn't seem to be much of a burden placed on ethnic Russians in the Baltic states.

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 14, 2014, 11:07:35 PM
Or maybe Russian speakers in Latvia can be treated equally/democratically, and then they might support the free Latvian government over Putin's czaropoly?

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Quote from: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:58:03 PM
They can claim Russian citizenship. And learn Latvian or gtfo.  Latvians deserve their on country after all they've been through.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM

Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 07:15:26 AM

Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM

Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.

I tend to disagree. What is happening in Ukraine clearly shows that it was a very wise geopolitical move. Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Yeah seems like they have just made it way easier to make claim that Russia needs to step in to save Russian people.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Quote from: celedhring on August 15, 2014, 04:31:05 AM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Yeah, that worked a charm last time.

Can't believe that an Hungarian of all things could be in bed with Russia while Moscow is pulling a 1956 with their neighbor.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM

Quote
By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland.

But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else.

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 08:27:58 AM

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM

Quote
By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland.

But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else.

:hmm:  :shutup:

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

He is not my "idol" since as you point out, often trolling the general consensus seems more important for him than just being a politician for his side. But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else. Need more of that in Eastern Europe.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:43:21 AM
He does not stand out as a "proponent of classical liberalism", since the region's economy (at least in Poland) is already highly deregulated and laissez-faire. What he is a proponent of is a complete dismantling of any safety nets or things like socialised education or healthcare (I believe he believes that even primary education should be privatised and should be paid out of pockets of the parents). In a country like Poland, where the public sector is already very weak, things like this do not make him an economic genius, but a sociopath with serious empathy issues.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:43:21 AM

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

He is not my "idol" since as you point out, often trolling the general consensus seems more important for him than just being a politician for his side. But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else. Need more of that in Eastern Europe.

He does not stand out as a "proponent of classical liberalism", since the region's economy (at least in Poland) is already highly deregulated and laissez-faire. What he is a proponent of is a complete dismantling of any safety nets or things like socialised education or healthcare (I believe he believes that even primary education should be privatised and should be paid out of pockets of the parents). In a country like Poland, where the public sector is already very weak, things like this do not make him an economic genius, but a sociopath with serious empathy issues.

The fact that he used the word "nigger" in his first European Parliament's speech he gave, and believes that women in marriage cannot be raped and that disabled children should not be showed on tv not to create bad role models for "normal children" (or that fact that both Wilders and LePen did not form a group with him in the European Parliament, saying he is too "extreme" and "controversial") really shows that this guy is human garbage.

I can't fathom why on earth some Hungarian IT guy would suddenly became his supporter. Do you know some idiot Pole there in London who is a fan of his or something?

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:51:12 AM
:yeahright:

Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 08:49:39 AM
Ah, there's our old Marty.  Welcome back, sir.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:54:21 AM

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:51:12 AM
:yeahright:

Do you dispute anything I said in the first two paragraphs (deleted the third as it was an ad hom).

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 09:49:40 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Thing is these aren't immigrants.  These are people who were born there.  And simply because the US has violated the civil rights of it's citizens in the past doesn't mean can criticize  these actions as they happen now.  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.  There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 09:59:28 AM
That is not how it works in the old world dude.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 09:49:40 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Thing is these aren't immigrants.  These are people who were born there.  And simply because the US has violated the civil rights of it's citizens in the past doesn't mean can criticize  these actions as they happen now.

Quote
  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.

Quote
There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:23:09 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

:lol:

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.

There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:33:15 AM

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

The thing is they do not consider themselves Latvians.

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.

Quote from: Queequeg on August 15, 2014, 10:26:06 AM
Guys my twitter is blowing up, looks like Russian units already in Luhansk.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.

QuoteRussia Will Do 'Everything Within Our Power' To Fix Ukraine
14:40 (GMT)

Vladimir Putin may have just spelled out his motivation in a conversation with the Finnish President today. RFE/RL reports:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he has agreed with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto they will "do everything within our power" to end the conflict in Ukraine.

The crisis in Ukraine where government troops are fighting pro-Russian separatists was high on the agenda of talks Putin and Niinisto held on August 15 in Sochi.

Niinisto, speaking through a translator, said he hoped a Russian aid delivery to eastern Ukraine would pave the way for a cease-fire.

Putin also said EU sanctions against Moscow put under threat an entire range of ties between Russia and Finland.

QuoteReuters reports:

A Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday that Ukraine forces have engaged a Russian armored column on Ukrainian soil and "part of it no longer exists."

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.

How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 10:48:05 AM

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

Pretty much every country in Europe and the Americas have significant minority populations.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:51:43 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Translation: they just don't like Poles.




:P

Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:51:43 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Translation: they just don't like Poles.




:P

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Am I the only one who keeps derspiess and DGuller confused?  :blush:

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:48:58 AM
Well, looks like now is the watershed moment.  Was this a feint to see if Ukraine will ever have the balls to fire on Russians, or is the shit going down down now?

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Am I the only one who keeps derspiess and DGuller confused?  :blush:

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:00 AM
But they have these vehemently anti-immigration parties winning elections and whatnot.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:55:42 AM
Hopefully Ukraine does a better job defending itself than the Kurds and Iraqis did.  How motivated will the Russians really be?  They just need to make it hard for the Russians.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:15 AM
I wonder how Obama will react.

Whatever he does, I hope he does it *quickly*.

Surely they have a contingency plan in place for this, right? I mean, it's not like the possibility that this would occur is some great surprise.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:15 AM
I wonder how Obama will react.

Whatever he does, I hope he does it *quickly*.

Surely they have a contingency plan in place for this, right? I mean, it's not like the possibility that this would occur is some great surprise.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:59:38 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:59:38 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

Quote from: PJL on August 15, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:14:00 AM

Quote from: PJL on August 15, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Standard Foreign Office procedure? You mean, William Hague making some angry noises in public, while leaking a "secret" memo advocating total inaction, to make sure the oligarchs in Notting Hill do not get anxious or anything? :P

Quote
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 11:18:43 AM

Quote
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Stage one: We say nothing is going to happen
Stage two: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it
Stage three: We say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:29:06 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:31:57 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:29:06 AM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Wow, that is right up there with Islamotards blaming the US for all their problems.

Now the EU being a failure as a political entity is the United State's fault. Right. The US has "made sure it stays divided". Uh-huh.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Quote from: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 11:48:01 AM

Who told you that about the EU? Because while there are some people within the EU who'd like it to be that, there are plenty of others who do not.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Hell, I was not even aware I had a position on the "Arab Stpring in general". Much less "the EU".

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.

There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:04:45 PM

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.

There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

give it a few centuries and americans will understand it too.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 01:06:19 PM
Hey I was explaining to Shielbh why it was the way it was.  I get it.

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 01:05:47 PM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:04:45 PM

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM

Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM

Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.

There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

give it a few centuries and americans will understand it too.

I don't know why you cheer on barbaric attitudes.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Speaking of the Russian embargo on EU food - the Kaliningrad district is apparently pretty fucked - they border only EU countries and do not really grow their own food.

Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 02:00:26 PM

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Speaking of the Russian embargo on EU food - the Kaliningrad district is apparently pretty fucked - they border only EU countries and do not really grow their own food.

I thought Russia was going to make an exception for them?

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Um can you make exceptions like that? If I was Euroland I would refuse to sell food to Kaliningrad until Russia lifted the entire embargo.

Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:33:50 PM

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Um can you make exceptions like that? If I was Euroland I would refuse to sell food to Kaliningrad until Russia lifted the entire embargo.

Well, food trade with Russia is an important part of exports for the Baltics and Poland.

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:02:07 AM

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

You know nothing Jon Snow. There were roughly 3 million Hungarians left on the other side of the border following the Versailles peace treaty. 96 years later there are still 1.5 millions of them, those who dared openly declaring themselves as such.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 02:58:33 PM
Are they also part of an occupation force?

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 02:58:33 PM

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:02:07 AM

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

You know nothing Jon Snow. There were roughly 3 million Hungarians left on the other side of the border following the Versailles peace treaty. 96 years later there are still 1.5 millions of them, those who dared openly declaring themselves as such.

Are they also part of an occupation force?

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:05:36 AM

It does mean that we should understand the power and fear involved, and that it isn't as simple as we might think it is, or wish it to be.

Quote
  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.

Are you kidding me? Russia invaded and occupied Latvia for decades. That threat most certainly DID materialize.

Quote
There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

It is that, and more than that. Pretending it isn't won't help.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
Understanding the fear involved doesn't excuse such actions.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
And no Russia didn't invade, the Soviet Union did.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Quote from: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 01:01:55 PM

You do realize he's trolling you, right?

Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 09:53:48 AMThose people, although I agree they probably haven't made that choice personally, are from the nation who forcefully occupied the Baltic States. In fact the only reason they could move there was that they were under the umbrella of their own occupying army and were considered the "same country". They are remnants of an occupation force.

QuoteFor that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

QuoteThere is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

Quote1. More and tougher sanctions, of course. One thing about sanctions - they idea is to hurt the people you are sanctioning. But it is going to hurt you as well, by definition. Like all actions in conflict, the idea is to hurt the other guy more than yourself, and THEIR idea is to convince you that you will hurt yourself more than them. *If you enter into the sanctions discussion with the idea that anything that will hurt you at all is not acceptable, don't bother even talking about it!*.

Quote3. Apply more overt pressure or even threats. Start talking about the possibility of sending in direct support, perhaps air support or advisers.

QuoteOh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Quote from: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:49:02 PM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

That the Arab Spring was a positive development for the Arab world, and that we should have been in there supporting it.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 03:07:18 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
Understanding the fear involved doesn't excuse such actions.

Yep.  So?

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 07:11:10 PM
It's not a factor then.  I don't care what the people there are scared of:  Russians, Jews, shaved armpits, Ventriloquist dolls whatever.  Passing laws to harass and disenfranchise a major portion of native population out of fear, spite or hatred should not be tolerated.  I am unimpressed by the needs to have a "pure" state and hostile to efforts to create one.

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 08:48:35 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 07:11:10 PM
It's not a factor then.  I don't care what the people there are scared of:  Russians, Jews, shaved armpits, Ventriloquist dolls whatever.  Passing laws to harass and disenfranchise a major portion of native population out of fear, spite or hatred should not be tolerated.  I am unimpressed by the needs to have a "pure" state and hostile to efforts to create one.

Ok but what lengths are we willing to go to get everybody to act in a pure and moral fashion?  We would have to use extremely coercive methods to get Latvia to act differently under the circumstances.  We are hardly paragons of virtue ourselves.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:12:43 PM

Quote from: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:49:02 PM

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

That the Arab Spring was a positive development for the Arab world, and that we should have been in there supporting it.

Right on both counts.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:10:45 PM
So why do/should we sympathise with white Zimbabweans?

Quote(which is right, I was worried Cameron was going to shout for sanctions but then not be willing to take a hit).

Quote from: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 02:04:03 AM
I don't see why these groups have to be "hostile"

Quote from: The Brain on August 16, 2014, 04:11:34 AM
needs moar edits

Quote from: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 04:02:06 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 02:04:03 AM
I don't see why these groups have to be "hostile"

I am not sure what point you are arguing. My point is that in the Baltics and Ukraine Russian minority is hostile to the very existence of the state. These are not people who migrated there to seek better life for themselves - they came as a part of the occupation force, resent their new homeland's newfound independence and more or less loudly voice their opinions that all of this should go back to Mother Russia.

Raz, in the other thread you admitted that I was right and you were wrong about Erdogan. Why don't you acknowledge that when it comes to CEE issues, I have generally better insights than you, especially if Tamas (the only other resident Eastern European) agrees 100% with me?

Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 08:48:35 PMOk but what lengths are we willing to go to get everybody to act in a pure and moral fashion?  We would have to use extremely coercive methods to get Latvia to act differently under the circumstances.  We are hardly paragons of virtue ourselves.

QuoteIsn't that exactly what he has been doing?

QuoteThe problem Latvians (and for example, Ukrainians) have is that they are late to the party - the party being European nation states, which (at least the more stable ones, like France, Poland or Germany) were built to a degree on ethnic cleansing and forced deportations. We don't accept stuff like this in Europe any more but the fact is, it made these countries relatively peaceful and stable.

QuoteWe should either put pressure on these countries but then help them cope with the inherent instability of having a sizeable (and hostile) ethnic minority within their borders by offering some extra aid - or we should turn a blind eye to "soft" ethnic cleansing they are practising. Just telling them to shape up and offering nothing in return will not do.

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 16, 2014, 08:21:55 AM
According to the leaked Commission document on the latest round of sanctions the big country who'll be hurt most is the UK. The overwhelming focus of the sanctions was on access to finance and biggest centre for that is London. Russia's a small part of the market in London, but it's still expected to have more of a negative impact here than in Germany or France.

Quote from: celedhring on August 16, 2014, 11:38:41 AM
Czechs change foreign female surnames to -ová, too.

http://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clintonov%C3%A1

Quote from: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
Something like that, yes. For the record, normal countries (which, for this purpose include Poland) do not require you to change your name from Martin to Marcin if you move here.

Quote
Ukraine foreign minister calls on NATO, EU to give military support
Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:14pm BST

BERLIN (Reuters) - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin called on NATO and the European Union to provide military support for Ukrainian troops fighting pro-Russian separatists and said the Western military alliance needed to come up with a new strategy towards Kiev.

The four-month conflict in eastern Ukraine has reached a critical phase and a separatist leader said on Saturday that Ukrainian rebels were receiving new military equipment and troops trained in Russia, and would launch a major counter-offensive against government forces.

Klimkin told German radio station Deutschlandfunk the EU and NATO needed to consider what they could and would do if rules get broken, adding that this was the case when Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March and was also true of Russia's actions in Donetsk and Luhansk now.

"It's a really tough question for the European Union and NATO: What can they do if a war is practically ... being mongered in Europe by a European country?" he said according to a transcript of the interview due to be broadcast on Sunday.

"And that's why, if they say 'We can't do much there,' it gives rise to the question: How can you then continue to be seen as a responsible partner?"

Asked if he was appealing to the EU and NATO for military aid, Klimkin said: "Yes of course. We need military aid because if we got such aid, it would be easier for our troops on the ground to act."

He said Ukraine faced a tough situation economically and financially so needed help now but would later repay this aid. Alongside direct aid, the country also needed the EU to help it implement reforms, Klimkin said.

He said NATO needed to adopt a new strategy towards Ukraine. Asked what he hoped would come out a NATO summit planned for September, he said he would like Ukraine to get political support, more aid for its troops, help with reforms and help in areas like "fighting terrorism" and cyber security.

But he said there was no question of Ukraine becoming a NATO member at the moment as it lacked consensus at home.

He said the danger of a Russian invasion was omnipresent, adding that Ukrainian troops were coming under fire from Russian territory almost daily and Russia was bringing mercenary soldiers and weapons into the country.

On Friday Ukraine said its artillery destroyed part of an armoured column that entered its territory from Russia overnight. It said its forces came under shellfire from Russia in what seemed to be a major military escalation between the ex-Soviet states.

Klimkin said Ukraine would "fight until the last moment" for Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Asked why Kiev had not declared a state of war, he said that would worsen conditions for people as so-called war commanders would then take responsibility on the ground and some laws would no longer apply.

Klimkin is due to meet his Russian, German and French counterparts in Berlin on Sunday to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The French government has said it hopes the meeting will be the first step towards a Ukraine-Russia peace summit.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:24:05 AM
That's all a bit different from someone who (as a Polish minority in the Soviet Union) went through his entire life being legally called "Witold" and then suddenly he is being told that he has to change his name to "Vytautas" in his legal documents, no?

Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 11:24:10 AM
i hope not. diplomatic and economic support, not military :yes:

Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PM

Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 11:24:10 AM
i hope not. diplomatic and economic support, not military :yes:

Why not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.

Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PMWhy not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.

Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 12:20:30 PM

Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PMWhy not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.

if we're talking about providing military arms, then sure. i don't think we should directly kill russian soldiers, though.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 17, 2014, 11:51:52 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:24:05 AM
That's all a bit different from someone who (as a Polish minority in the Soviet Union) went through his entire life being legally called "Witold" and then suddenly he is being told that he has to change his name to "Vytautas" in his legal documents, no?

LOL, "Witold"

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

Quote from: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:10:18 AM

Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

What I meant it's only a matter of time before nazis take over in Ukraine.

Quote from: Malthus on August 18, 2014, 09:16:47 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:10:18 AM

Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM

Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

What I meant it's only a matter of time before nazis take over in Ukraine.

The head of the Right Sector ran for President in the recent elections.

He got: 0.7% of the vote.

I would not hold my breath ...

Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Quote from: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Going to enlist?  :hmm:

Quote from: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Going to enlist?  :hmm:

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 18, 2014, 05:35:10 PM
What did they do to piss Pakistan off?

Quote from: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 05:32:19 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Apparently a history of psychosis is a problem.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 08:38:08 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 05:32:19 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Apparently a history of psychosis is a problem.

You just have to focus yours in a constructive way.  Like Siegy does.

QuotePutin and Poroshenko to meet at Minsk summit

The EU, Russia and Ukraine have confirmed a multilateral summit, to be held in Belarus one week from now. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko will be among the participants.

Officials in Kyiv, Moscow and Brussels on Tuesday confirmed a top-level summit in Minsk on August 26, where Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko will again meet following their brief talks during the D-Day anniversary celebrations in June. Members of the Eurasian Customs Union - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan - will be joined by a Ukrainian delegation and senior EU officials.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the leaders "will discuss the relations between Ukraine and the Customs Union and there will be a number of bilateral meetings."

Ukraine's Poroshenko, elected earlier this year, said "stabilizing the situation" in eastern Ukraine would be a key topic of discussion. Ukraine's military and pro-Russian separatists have fought for control of the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk since April.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian military said that separatists had attacked a convoy of buses and cars carrying refugees displaced by the fighting - a charge the separatists rejected. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso called for the alleged incident to be investigated, after a phone call with Poroshenko.

Barroso also announced that the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, trade commissioner Karel De Gucht, and energy commissioner Günther Oettinger would attend the August 26 summit in Minsk.

The Eurasian Customs Union is a three-country trade bloc scheduled to be turned into a free-trade zone called the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015. Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's decision last November to break off integration talks with the EU and instead seek membership of this trade zone helped prompt the mass-protests in Kyiv that ultimately led to a change in Ukrainian government and the current tensions with Russia.

Quote from: garbon on August 18, 2014, 02:41:38 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FU9ugDlZtdfaiBZO5Pj1nX0nNOVQ%3D%2F775x0%2Ffilters%3Ano_upscale%28%29%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F658368%2Frussia_favorability_rating_2014.0.png&hash=5203513af45ccff030980823dedead1aa31703ed)

Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM

Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM

Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 20, 2014, 05:36:33 PM

Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM

Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Yeah I know, isn't.  Putin has some fans in the US, but most can't get past his KGB past.  If he worked in the same capacity for Franco or Pinochet it would be fine.

QuoteRussia accused of invading Ukraine as aid trucks cross

Lorries from a Russian aid convoy are streaming into Ukraine without permission, after Russia accused Ukraine of unreasonable obstruction.

Russia's foreign ministry said Ukraine had held up the convoy in order to pursue war against rebels in Luhansk, where the aid is destined.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it was "not part of that convoy in any way".

A Ukraine official said responsibility for the convoy rested on the Russians.

Reports suggest the lorries are being escorted by rebel fighters.

"Our humanitarian aid convoy is starting to move towards Luhansk," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement (in Russian).

It warned Ukraine not to take any action against the convoy without specifying the consequences.

Ukraine fears that the aid convoy of at least 260 lorries, which arrived at the border more than a week ago, is part of a broader Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.

Russia denies accusations that it arms and trains the rebels in the rebellion in Luhansk and the neighbouring region of Donetsk, where four months of fighting have left more than 2,000 people dead and has caused more than 330,000 people to flee their homes.

The rebel-held city of Luhansk has been without running water, power and phone communications for 20 days as government forces hold it under siege.
'Rebel escort'

As many as 70 lorries have entered Ukrainian territory, moving out of the no-man's land between the Russian and Ukrainian border posts.

Reporters at the scene saw rebel fighters in front of the convoy as it passed over the border in a rebel-held sector near the Russian town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

It is normally a drive of about two hours from the lorries' camp to the city of Luhansk.

However, it is unclear if the convoy will be able to use the motorway there because of continuing combat between rebels and government forces.

An ICRC spokesperson in Moscow said it had concluded that it had not "received the necessary security guarantees from the fighting parties to allow us to escort the convoy at this time".

It cited "heavy shelling overnight" in Luhansk.

"We understand that the convoy is now moving, however the ICRC is not part of that convoy in any way," the spokesperson added.

The Russian branch of the ICRC said earlier it was ready to take part in the relief operation and was contacting its international colleagues.
Warning

"We are warning against any attempts to sabotage this purely humanitarian mission, which was prepared a long time ago, in an atmosphere of full transparency and in co-operation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC," the Russian foreign ministry said.

Delays in Ukrainian clearance for the convoy had "become unbearable", it said.

"All excuses for blocking the delivery of aid to people in the area where this humanitarian catastrophe is happening have been exhausted," it added.

"The Russian side has decided to act. Our convoy carrying humanitarian aid is beginning to move towards Luhansk."

A Ukrainian government official told BBC News in Kiev: "The Red Cross did not take part in all the procedures on the border. Ukrainian border guards cannot take part if the Red Cross is not participating.

"All responsibility lies with the Russian side - not with the terrorists, but specifically the Russian side, because this is their decision."

In a statement on its website (in Russian), Luhansk's official council reported on Friday that the dire situation in the city remained unchanged with no halt in the bombardment.



Analysis: Daniel Sandford, BBC News

The risk of the Russian aid convoy causing a further deterioration in relations with Ukraine is now very high. Because the International Committee of the Red Cross is not part of the convoy, the government in Kiev may choose not to recognise it as a humanitarian mission.

The lorries are currently being accompanied by pro-Russian gunmen. So the convoy is likely to be stopped at the front line near the besieged city of Luhansk. Or if it tries to work its way around the Ukrainian government forces, there is a risk of it being attacked - accidentally or intentionally.

The Russian foreign ministry has already a clear sent warning that if the convoy is attacked, Moscow may take action.

Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 22, 2014, 08:06:01 AM

Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Russia isn't going to blow up our embassies or fly airplanes into our buildings.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
Maybe if you're a sub-Saharan poacher.

Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 12:44:03 AM
I like how Poland seems to be the only country that dropped by two levels. :D

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:12:22 AM
Don't bother calling your local cable provider when the Chinese splash all our satellites into the Pacific in 2025.  Assholes.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:12:22 AM
Meanwhile, the other side of the globe is the epicenter of the world's biggest conventional arms race for the last 20 years, and are diving headfirst into classic 19th century nation-state power politics on a grand scale predicated on the most basic origins of conflict: national prestige and natural resources.

But no, we've got Europeans sweating us over Russia being Russia, and our military-industrial complex obsessing over the latest edition of monkey bar-swinging Mooselimbs.

Don't bother calling your local cable provider when the Chinese splash all our satellites into the Pacific in 2025.  Assholes.

QuoteNATO: Russians Using Artillery Inside Ukraine

NATO Secretary-General Says Escalation Coincides With Entry of Humanitarian Convoy

BRUSSELS—Russia has been using artillery against Ukraine forces both from its own territory and from inside Ukraine itself, officials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said.

"Russian artillery support –both cross-border and from within Ukraine –is being employed against the Ukrainian armed forces," said NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu.

The reports of Russian artillery inside Ukraine, operated both by separatists and by Russian forces themselves, is a new and potentially volatile development.

"Since mid-August we have multiple reports of the direct involvement of including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in eastern Ukraine," Ms. Lungescu said.

She added, "We have also seen transfers of large quantities of advanced weapons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery, to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. And for weeks we have seen an alarming buildup of Russian ground and air forces in the vicinity of Ukraine."

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said what is "even more worrying" is that the Russian military escalation is coinciding with the entry of the purportedly humanitarian convoy into Ukraine.

"This is a blatant breach of Russia's international commitments, including those made recently in Berlin and Geneva, and a further violation of Ukraine's sovereignty by Russia," Mr. Rasmussen said. "It can only deepen the crisis in the region, which Russia itself has created and has continued to fuel. The disregard of international humanitarian principles raises further questions about whether the true purpose of the aid convoy is to support civilians or to resupply armed separatists."

Quote"Given the obvious protractions by Kiev on the issue of the delivery of Russian aid to southeast regions of Ukraine, which are suffering a humanitarian catastrophe, a decision was made on sending the convoy. Further delaying it would have been unacceptable," Putin told Merkel on Friday, the Kremlin's press service reported.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Quote
Pro-Russian rebels talk in a field near the village of Khryaschevatoye, eastern Ukraine (23 August 2014)

Quote from: grumbler on August 22, 2014, 06:42:20 PM

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Yeah, that's the Chinese government response to anything they see as infringing on their imperial ambitions.  The fact that the US wussed out when confronted in the Hainan Island incident just bolsters the Chinese aggression.  The US needs to escort those missions for a few months to make a point, and if the Chinese continue to ignore international law, they need to "splash the Zeros" after appropriate warnings. The Chinese government respects strength.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:45:43 PM

Quote from: grumbler on August 22, 2014, 06:42:20 PM

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Yeah, that's the Chinese government response to anything they see as infringing on their imperial ambitions.  The fact that the US wussed out when confronted in the Hainan Island incident just bolsters the Chinese aggression.  The US needs to escort those missions for a few months to make a point, and if the Chinese continue to ignore international law, they need to "splash the Zeros" after appropriate warnings. The Chinese government respects strength.

At least somebody other than me gets it.

Quote from: mongers on August 23, 2014, 05:50:03 AM
Three front war?

Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.

Quote from: Solmyr on August 23, 2014, 09:56:24 AM

Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.

Why the fuck did they have a consul in Lugansk?

Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.

QuoteBREAKING from our Minsk bureau:

Alyaksandr Lukashenka has just emerged alone from a common dinner at the Minsk summit to make the following statement:

"Unfortunately, the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated to such an extent that no agreements on a political level can bring about a solution."

QuoteU.S.: Reports Indicate 'Russian-Directed' Battle In Ukraine

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki says reports from eastern and southeastern Ukraine "indicate that a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely under way" against government forces in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Psaki said on August 27 that the reports include descriptions of "columns of Russian tanks, multiple rocket launchers, and armored vehicles pushing toward communities in southeastern Ukraine."

She said they also include reports of "heavy fighting and shelling near the city and airport in Donetsk."

Psaki said Washington was "concerned by the Russian government's unwillingness to tell the truth, even as its soldiers are found 30 miles [50 kilometers] inside Ukraine" -- adding that "Russia is sending its young men into Ukraine but are not telling them where they are going or telling their parents what they are doing."

She also noted "reports of wounded Russian soldiers in a St. Petersburg hospital, and that other Russian soldiers are returning home to Russia for burial."

"These are not steps that certainly you take when you are operating in a transparent manner," she concluded.

Fighting On Southern Front

Ukrainian security spokesman Andriy Lysenko announced on August 27 that reinforcements were being sent to the town of Novoazovsk, on the Sea of Azov about 10 kilometers from the Russian border, after the local mayor said pro-Russian fighters entered the town with support from dozens of armored vehicles.

Reports from correspondents in the area on August 27, as well as messages on social media by pro-government Ukrainian fighters, said government forces had abandoned all of their checkpoints on the main road linking the separatist-held city of Donetsk to Novoazovsk.

The developments come two days after  Lysenko claimed Russian tanks invaded southeastern Ukraine disguised as pro-Russian separatist fighters.

Lysenko said Russian artillery was continuing to support the battle on August 27 by firing across the border from Russian territory.

He also said a Russian "tactical battalion" -- a battlefield command-and-control unit -- was positioned on August 27 near Novoazovsk at the Ukrainian village of Pobeda.

Moscow denies sending troops into Ukraine, claiming Russian paratroopers captured by Ukrainian forces in recent days had "inadvertently" crossed the border.

Poroshenko: Minsk Talks 'Very Effective'

The latest allegations of Russian troop activity within Ukraine come a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk that Moscow will "do everything to support" a peace process in Ukraine "if it starts."

Poroshenko promised to draft a new cease-fire plan after his face-to-face talks with Putin, which came after a summit in Minsk that included EU foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazabaev, and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Poroshenko said in Kyiv on August 27 that the talks in Minsk were "very effective."

He told a meeting of his Solidarity Party, which has been renamed the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, that he "clearly stressed there will be no bargaining over sovereignty, territorial integrity, the independence of our country, [or] the sovereign choice of the Ukrainian people and their European choice."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 27 that Russia was not interested in breaking up Ukraine despite respecting declarations of independence by separatists in eastern Ukraine.

But in Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that "no one can take seriously" Russia's claims that it is not supporting the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 27, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the reports of the presence of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine "must be explained," her spokesperson said.

Merkel also emphasized Russia's "major responsibility for de-escalation and watching over its own frontiers."

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on August 27 that claims about an upsurge in Russian military activity on the border with Ukraine have "nothing to do with the reality."

Peskov added that Russia was ready to send a second humanitarian aid convoy to eastern Ukraine "even tomorrow."

An earlier convoy entered Ukrainian territory last week without Kyiv's permission, raising tensions between the West and Moscow.

Peskov also said Russia is and will be a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe, following warnings from Kyiv that Moscow could cut off fuel to the continent this winter.

"We hope that Ukraine in turn will guarantee unhindered transit," he added.

Russian Troops In Ukraine

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) held a press conference where it presented a group of Russian soldiers captured earlier this week after they crossed the border from Russia into Ukraine.

One soldier, identified as Corporal Ivan Romantsev, said the soldiers had not realized they had crossed the border into Ukraine.

He told journalists that what is being shown on Russian television "is completely different from what is really happening."

Ukraine's military first released a video showing the captured soldiers on August 26.

Russian Defense Ministry officials admitted on August 26 that Russian soldiers had crossed into Ukrainian territory but said they had accidentally crossed an unmarked section of the border.

The Associated Press news agency quoted the Finnish Foreign Ministry as saying the United States and Russia held secret talks on the Ukraine crisis in Finland in June.

Ministry spokesman Vesa Hakkinen said the ministry helped organize the meeting but declined to give more information.

The Russian Foreign Ministry on August 27 denied reports of secret talks, saying the meeting involved only representatives from nongovernmental organizations and academic communities and did not involve official state diplomatic contacts.

According to the United Nations, more than 2,000 people have died since April in fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

QuoteRussian reporters 'attacked at secret soldier burials'

Russian journalists say they have been attacked while investigating reports that soldiers were secretly buried after being killed in Ukraine.

The paratroopers were buried in a village near the western city of Pskov, where they were based.

What appears to be fresh graves of the killed paratroopers were first spotted in the village by Pskovskaya Guberniya, a local newspaper.

Its journalists say they were attacked at the cemetery.

Ukrainian government officials accuse the Kremlin of helping separatists in eastern Ukraine by sending in military hardware and troops, many of them via the southern region of Rostov.

Russia denies the claims. Asked about allegations of Russian soldiers being involved in fighting in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference on Tuesday that they amounted to "disinformation".

"Reporting this is really dangerous," one of the Pskov journalists told the BBC.

Later, two Moscow-based reporters visited the village to investigate the reports.

Vladimir Romensky and Ilya Vasyunin say they were approached by two men who told them that they would "never be found" unless they boarded the next train back to Moscow.

Ignoring the threats, the two visited the local cemetery where the soldiers' graves had reportedly been found.

There, their car was attacked by two men, who pelted it with stones and slashed its tyres. Independent Dozhd TV, for which Mr Romensky works, later posted footage of the attack.

Also in the car were two other journalists who claim that while attempting to visit the cemetery earlier in the day they had been forced into a van and taken to a forest.

Their abductors erased memory cards from their cameras and threatened to kill them should they make the incident public, says one of the reporters, Nina Petlyanova.

Sergei Kovalchenko from Telegraf news agency is another journalist who says he was threatened. He said his memory card was erased by plain-clothed men while visiting the cemetery.

Dozhd TV later said name plates and wreaths had been removed from the graves.

'Classified'

There has been no official confirmation of the deaths of paratroopers allegedly buried outside Pskov.

However, a military official in Voronezh, a city close to the border with eastern Ukraine, says that an elite airborne platoon commander from Pskov, Anton Korolenko, has been buried there.

He died on 19 August "while carrying out his duties", the official told local news agency RIA Voronezh, declining to give details. The platoon commander's relatives also refuse to reveal how he died, saying that this information was "classified".

A little later, Ukrainian journalist Roman Bochkala posted photographs of what he said was an armoured personnel carrier seized from the Pskov paratroopers, as well as paperwork and IDs found inside.

Last week, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pskov amid speculation that his trip was related to the local troops' deaths in Ukraine.

Earlier, President Vladimir Putin awarded an Order of Suvorov to the Pskov-based 76th airborne division, where Anton Korolenko served, for "bravery and heroism" while performing unspecified tasks.

Reports from Russia also indicate that there has been a sudden and unexplained upsurge in the number of killed or wounded military servicemen.

On Tuesday, Russia's presidential human rights council said about 100 wounded servicemen had been airlifted to a military hospital in St Petersburg for treatment. Nine soldiers were killed at a training range in Rostov region, it said.

Military hospitals in Rostov region and southern Russia were "overflowing", a council spokeswoman said.

Quote from: Solmyr on August 26, 2014, 02:01:02 PM
(https://scontent-b-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1979741_821410397899828_9083394458770276267_n.jpg?oh=d71e600f9379eb75e64cf962dcc84d1c&oe=5464FE3D)

Text says:
Fistfight at the Minsk summit
... and that's for the Malaysian Boeing

QuoteVienna. The European security body OSCE will hold a special meeting Thursday to discuss developments in conflict-torn Ukraine, following reports of Russian troops on the ground there, the US mission to the organisation said, AFP reported.

"Russia violations in Ukraine to top agenda at extraordinary meet of OSCE delegations at 11:00 CET (0900 GMT) today in Vienna," the US mission said in a tweet.

Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:23:05 AM
At the very least this conduct by Russia is worrying. False flag/no flag operations in Crimea, "covert" interventions in Ukraine with all kinds of excuses (soldiers on leave, getting lost on patrol) while soldiers are brought to Russia for treatment/burial ... I wonder how they react once irrefutable proof is produced that active units of theirs are fighting in Ukraine.

QuoteNATO formations on Russian borders will impact Moscow's decision-making – envoy

Following NATO's aggressive military posturing in Eastern Europe, Russian envoy to the alliance warned that the "configuration and activity" of its forces will impact how Russia proceeds with its own security planning and considerations.

"Obviously, we will take into consideration the configuration and activity of the NATO forces at the Russian borders in our military planning, and will take all that is necessary to reliably provide security and to ensure safety against any threats," Russian media quoted Aleksandr Grushko citing Interfax news agency.

The statement by the Russian envoy follows on from the Cold War military alliance's intention to put up more bases in Eastern Europe and the Baltic in order to counter an 'overt' Russian threat – despite objections from a number of NATO members.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen nonetheless said the 26-nation bloc will attempt to overcome the objections.

"We have something already called the NATO response force, whose purpose is to be able to be deployed rapidly if needed," he said in a statement to the European press. "Now it's our intention to develop what I would call a spearhead within that response force at very, very high readiness. In order to be able to provide such rapid reinforcements you also need some reception facilities in host nations. So it will involve the pre-positioning of supplies, of equipment, preparation of infrastructure, bases [and] headquarters."

READ MORE: NATO chief eyes more bases in E. Europe to confront Russia

In early August, Moscow accused the US of twisting facts in order to provide a pretext for its own accusations of Russia violating one of the key tenets of the landmark Cold-War INF treaty – the testing of a cruise missile. No specifics have been given to date – only that Russia is violating the rules. This at a time the US was building its own "target practice missiles" similar to the ones in question, as well as drones, which equally violate the INF Treaty, the 1987 document concerning intermediate-range nuclear armaments.

READ MORE: 'Lies, hypocrisy, propaganda': Russia slams US over claims of nuclear treaty violations

Reacting to NATO's fresh plans for expansion into the east, Grushko told journalists that Russia has always shown a readiness for open dialogue with the United States on a whole spectrum of issues of non-proliferation and arms control, including those of the treaty.

"Our own strong disagreement with the alliance's violations of the treaty should also be taken into consideration," he said, mentioning the West's own target-practice missiles, as well as the production of unmanned fighter aircraft, which also fall within the bounds of a land-based cruise missile category. He also highlighted the building of MK-41 systems in Poland and Romania, capable of launching mid-range missiles.

When Rasmussen was earlier asked about the prospect of NATO's permanent presence in Eastern Europe, he said "the brief answer is 'yes'... for as long as necessary."

The bloc's further militarization of the Eastern European region does not sit well with Moscow, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union had been given pledges that NATO would not expand further east.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 04:30:56 AM
Is Russia going to nuke Kiev if the Ukranians fire back at Russian artillery across the border, don't think so. So how is their thousands of nuclear weapons relevant?

QuoteNOVO-OGARYOVO, August 27 (Itar-Tass) - The rumours of funerals of allegedly Russian paratroopers in a number of cities require further checks, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

"Certainly, this information is being checked by the agencies concerned," Peskov said in reply to a question.

"This information needs detailed verification before any conclusions can be made."

However, he said he was not sure that an inquiry was already underway. "I don't know for sure," he said.

Also he said, that claims about an upsurge in Russian military activity on the border with Ukraine have nothing to do with the reality.

He added that statements by certain sources about an alleged military build-up were not new.

"Such speculations are uttered regularly. Russia regularly refutes these claims, they have nothing to do with the reality," Peskov said.

QuoteKiev accuses Russia of 'bringing troops' to Ukraine, no proof offered

The chorus of allegations about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has President Poroshenko calling for an emergency meeting of the country's security and defense council, while the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is calling for a Russian asset freeze.

"I have made a decision to cancel my working visit to the Republic of Turkey due to sharp aggravation of the situation in Donetsk region, particularly in Amvrosiivka and Starobeshevo, as Russian troops were brought into Ukraine," Petro Poroshenko said in a statement on his website.

The Russian representative to the OSCE Andrey Kelin has given a firm response to the allegations, saying that "We have said that no Russian involvement has been spotted, there are no soldiers or equipment."

"Accusations relating to convoys of armored personnel carriers have been heard during the past week and the week before that," he said. "All of them were proven false back then, and is being proven false again now."

"There is no sense in these accusations," he said.

Yet, Ukraine is going to call for a meeting of the UN Security Council, said Poroshenko.

"The world must provide assessment of sharp aggravation of the situation in Ukraine," he added.

Poroshenko added that on Thursday there will be a meeting of Security and Defense Council to elaborate the plan for further action.

"The President must stay in Kyiv today," he said.

As with previous allegations of smuggled troops, equipment and other underhand tactics, no evidence has been offered.

Given the confusion arising out of the recent capture of alleged Russian paratroopers and the subsequent videos with interviews released by the Ukrainians, the government is going to the US, EU and the G7 to ask for a freeze on Russian assets.

Meanwhile, the OSCE has announced that it's calling an emergency meeting in Vienna – for the second time in August – giving no further details.

Yet when the head of its Ukraine mission, Paul Picard, was asked if the monitoring team saw any evidence of Russia crossing the border with troops and tanks, the answer was "no." He told journalists of round-the-clock surveillance by a team of 16 people. The team said "we are hearing shooting, but it's difficult to tell just how far."

This didn't stop the Ukrainian government from alleging that the border town of Novoazovsky in the south-east has fallen under Russian control – a mix of troops and members of the eastern-Ukrainian uprising.

"We only know that the mayor of Novoazovsk said that after 10 rounds of artillery were heard, the Ukrainian soldiers retreated from the city, and the self-defense forces entered," Kelin said.

He added that "the Ukrainian ambassador has offered no claims to counter this information."

Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 07:51:52 AM

Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

What exactly is it that you want NATO to do, as this is not necessarily a NATO issue?

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 07:51:52 AM

Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

What exactly is it that you want NATO to do, as this is not necessarily a NATO issue?

Quote from: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 08:49:17 AM
The way I see it, Russians can pull this de-facto but undeclared war bullshit indefinitely, and they know it.  It can only become an official war if Ukraine declares war, because Russians won't, and what in the world would Ukraine win by doing that?

Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 09:22:40 AM
They're somewhat gimped, though, because this way they won't be able to use air assets without being too obvious.

Quote from: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 10:33:55 AM
the NATO commander guy has cancelled his press event for today, maybe indication that some shit is really going down and NATO members are discussing what to do?

Quote from: Malicious Intent on August 28, 2014, 11:04:32 AM
According to BBC, there will also be a meeting of the UN security council today.

Quote from: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/nato-satellite-photo-evidence-russia-lying-about-ukraine-2014-8

Quote from: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/nato-satellite-photo-evidence-russia-lying-about-ukraine-2014-8

Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 09:41:25 AM
NATO is establishing bases in Eastern Europe in response. :)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-east-european-bases-counter-russian-threat

Quote from: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 08:49:17 AM
The way I see it, Russians can pull this de-facto but undeclared war bullshit indefinitely, and they know it.  It can only become an official war if Ukraine declares war, because Russians won't, and what in the world would Ukraine win by doing that?

Quote from: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 05:58:59 PM
I've read reports of Ukrainian forces falling back on Mariupol.  That's a fairly large town and I don't think a 1,000 Russian soldiers could take it.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 06:02:31 PM
The only thing the Ukrainians are capable of falling back on is the otttoman in Rob and Laura's living room.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 08:22:43 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FaxMy0g9z9khZC%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=c71321b18e1ec8214f88cbb0001f657cfd4a5e48)

Quote from: Syt on August 29, 2014, 09:53:34 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-death-toll-tops-2500-as-un-report-finds-civilians-targeted-by-government-and-rebel-forces-9699442.html

Report from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Basically, both sides violate human rights, especially volunteer units, but the separatists are a bit worse.

Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 03:48:54 AM
BTW will that German ex-chancellor Schroeder (sp ?) be finally executed for treason now? I remember reading how he worked hard to put the German industry on Russian gas, and then proceeded to have a nice job at Gazprom.

I remember in 2009ish when the current Putin-cock sucking Hungarian government was in opposition and ferociously attacking the government for sucking Putin's cock, Schroeder was sent to Hungary to campaign for the Prime Minister, that was fishy as hell as well.

QuotePutin Ends the Interregnum
Vladimir Putin's increasingly reckless interventions in Ukraine should force the West to reevaluate everything it thought it knew about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the past two decades of Western policy on Russia.

When the Gaza War and the threat from ISIS pulled global attention away from Ukraine, you could almost hear the sighs of relief emanating from the Western capitals: Finally, something to distract us from this Eurasian conundrum! This isn't to say that Western leaders don't understand that the war in Ukraine has implications for both the international order and the West's own internal workings. By now they appreciate the stakes (or at least they ought to); they just haven't been able to come up with an answer.

Meanwhile, Russia itself faces a conundrum of its own. By attempting to shift Russia backward to an older civilizational model, Putin has already inflicted a deep strategic defeat on his country. His efforts to turn Russia back to the "Besieged Fortress" model will only rob Russia of its chance to become a modern society. Moreover, Putin has also unleashed forces he can't hope to contain, thus accelerating the agonizing decay of his own regime. Nevertheless, though he has lost the battle with history, Putin has been moving from one tactical victory to the next by forcing the West to constantly react and try to accommodate his reckless behavior.

Russia's recent "humanitarian invasion" of nearly 200 trucks—which crossed the border and then returned, the Ukrainian government alleges, with stolen factory equipment—is only one of the more recent Kremlin experiments aimed at testing both the global rules of the game and Western leaders' readiness to confront Russia. This alleged mass theft, in particular, took place just before Ukraine's Independence day, on the eve of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Kiev and before the meeting between Putin and Poroshenko. It was an intentional slap in the face, meant to bring across a simple message: "Screw you! We don't care what you say!"

The Kremlin has been intentionally escalating tensions in order to ready us for Putin's attempt to assume the role of Peacemaker—albeit on his terms. Peacemaking, for the Russian leader, is merely a means to another goal: forcing the West to accept the Kremlin's right to change the rules of the game whenever it suits its interests. Indeed this is precisely what he demonstrated at the recent meeting in Minsk between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine, where Putin stubbornly refused to admit to the Russian military's involvement in the war in Ukraine.

What this means is that there are no concessions on the part of the West and Ukraine that can satisfy the other side. This is true not because of bellicosity or incompetence of the Russian leader; he is quite rational and competent. Rather, he understands all too well the logic of personalized power in Russia—that, at this late stage of regime decay, it requires him to keep Russia in a state of war with the outside world. The war with Ukraine has thus become an existential problem for the current Russian political regime. It can't afford a defeat. Yesterday Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko claimed—and NATO satellite imagery appears to confirm—that Russian troops have openly invaded the Ukrainian territory, proving that the Kremlin is no longer interested in forestalling an escalation. Hell is unfolding...


Several years ago the famous Polish political philosopher and sociologist Zygmunt Baumanreintroduced into our political lexicon the term "interregnum" (a word onceused by the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci to describe the early 1930s).The term means "a time without a trajectory," or "a time outside of time,"when the old is dying and the new has not yet been born or is toofaint to notice. It is a treacherous time to interpret: Is it just beforedawn, or just after dusk? "Interregnum" is also an apt description for the times in which the world found itself during the first decades of the 21st century: a time of ideological fuzziness, political ambivalence, and normative relativism.

Having flipped the global chessboard with his annexation of the Crimea and an undeclared war against Ukraine, Putin effectively ended the most recent period of interregnum and inaugurated a new era in global politics. However, no one yet knows what this era will bring. The global community is still reeling in shock, when it isn't trying to pretend that nothing extraordinary has in fact occurred. This denial of the fact that the Kremlin has dealt a blow to conventional ideas, stable geopolitical constructs, and (supposedly) successful policies, proceeds from the natural instinct for self-preservation. It is also quite natural that the political forces that have grown accustomed to the status quo will try to look to the past for answers to new challenges—this is precisely what those who were unprepared for a challenge always do. It was easy enough to predict that many politicians and political analysts would explain what Putin has done to the global order by using Cold War analogies. Drawing these historical parallels is potentially useful in only one respect: if they help us to see what is truly new about the current situation, and the scale of the risks involved.

The Cold War of the past century was not merely a competition of two global systems; it was also a clash of two ideologies that sought world domination. Russia, having entered a stage of decline, no longer possesses a global ideology and cannot play a role in counterbalancing the West. Nevertheless, the new containment policy initiated by the Kremlin should concern the West, since in one important respect these times differ from those of the Cold War. Back then, the opposing sides attempted to follow the rules of the game (the Cuban Missile Crisis was the sole exception that highlighted the need to play by the rules). The current confrontation with the West instigated by Putin's Russia, however, is characterized by a new set of circumstances:

Russia and the West (primarily Europe) are economically interconnected.
There is now a massive pro-Kremlin lobbying operation within Western society. This operation engages right- and left-wing forces, as well as business elites and former politicians, in serving the Kremlin's interests.
Unlike the Soviet Kremlin, Putin's Kremlin is not only prepared to violate the international rules of the game; it also demands that the world recognize its right to interpret them.
Influential forces within Western society aren't ready to acknowledge the failures of Western policy on Russia. These "accommodators," attempting to act within the past framework of engaging Russia, view its current belligerence as a temporary phenomenon caused by local factors.
Thus, the Western proponents of the two opposing courses on Russia are quite confused now. After all, the Kremlin seeks to contain the West even as it maintains an active presence there, which prevents the West from either successfully containing or engaging Russia. Аs forthe dual-track approach—that is, the combination of both containment and engagement—the West has never had success with this. The crisis of these past foreign policy models has become obvious in the case of Ukraine, where the West still struggles to find a solution that would end the Kremlin's undeclared war. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has managed to force the West to accept the aggressor in this conflict as a peacemaker and mediator. Not only that, but it is also now trying to force the West to agree to a new status quo, without offering its own pledge to respect it.

In other words, we face a new reality in which neither Cold War schemes nor post-Cold War settlement approaches appear to work. This means that we will have to revisit a number of traditional views, including our views on the collapse of the Soviet Union—which, as we now should understand, merely served to sustain the Russian Matrix of personalized power at the cost of dismantling the old state. The same understanding applies to Yeltsin's role: He was in fact an architect of anti-Communist authoritarianism, creating the constitutional grounds for Putin's regime. We will have to take a fresh look at the policies the West has been advancing over the past twenty years, ranging from the European Union's roadmaps for Russia's inclusion in Europe to the U.S. "reset" and the EU's "Partnership for Modernization." We will need to ask ourselves to what extent Western policies were actually means of including Russia in Western normative space, and to what extent they merely facilitated the revival of the Russian personalized power system. Having cast aside imitations of partnership and democratization in Russia, Putin seriously damaged the reputation of Western intellectual and political communities. Just think how many analytical publications, speeches, and dissertations have now been rendered superfluous, if not just plain wrong! How many political decisions and constructs have been exposed as futile, or even deleterious to the liberal democracies! Even a short list of misguided political actions, op-eds, and academic research would offer a stunning example of a collective failure to analyze, predict, and react to the obvious.

Meanwhile, Russia's war against Ukraine could have consequences reaching even further than those of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.Russia's war against Ukraine could have consequences reaching even further than those of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet collapse was unexpectedly peaceful (again despite numerous predictions to the contrary). The Soviet Union just cracked and crumbled like a clay pot. This painless demise to a large extent resulted from the fact that the old and frail Soviet elite was unable to struggle for survival, and a significant number of Russians wanted change and looked up to the West. The situation is drastically different today: the Russian elite will fight tooth and nail to survive, using every means at its disposal—including, we now see, external aggression, blackmail, and the threat of undeclared war. Besides, the Russians of today, zombified by television war propaganda, fear change and view the West suspiciously. The 1991 Soviet collapse spawned a democratic euphoria and hopes for the ultimate victory of liberal democracy. Today the world finds itself in the midst of the authoritarian surge. In its final days, the Soviet Union could barely attract worldwide, let alone Western, support; Putin's Kremlin, meanwhile, has managed to find supporters in the West all across the political spectrum—many of whom aren't always aware of whose tune they're dancing to. Today's Russia is an advance combat unit of the new global authoritarianism, with China acting as its informal leader and waiting in the wings to seize its own opportunities. Indeed, by destabilizing the Western world and exposing its weaknesses, Putin is effectively doing Beijing's dirty work.

Putin's Kremlin challenged the West at the same time that the liberal community was losing its mission and normative dimension. This is essentially a civilizational rather than a geopolitical challenge: Apart from testing the liberal democracies' ability to defend the global order, it is testing their ability to reintroduce the normative dimension to their foreign policies. That is exactly what Ukrainian crisis is about: Here Putin is trying to explore how strong the West's positions are. The Kremlin isn't fighting for the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine, or for greater autonomy for the east. These issues are ultimately of little significance to the Kremlin. Instead, what we have in Ukraine is a battle waged by a declining but ever more desperately aggressive authoritarianism against a hostile civilization. And today's Russian elite will not leave the battlefield voluntarily, as the impotent Soviet leaders once did. After the Kremlin turned Ukraine into an internal political factor, and turned containment of the West in Ukraine into a tool for mobilizing Russians around their leader, it cut off its avenues for retreat. Retreat would lead to a loss of power and control over the country, which under current Kremlin conditions, would be tantamount to suicide (and not just the political variety). Putin's retreat would spell defeat for global authoritarianism. Therefore, we can expect that Beijing will lend Moscow a helping hand where possible. (Beijing will also force Moscow to pay for this help—the recent Russia-China gas contract, which exclusively caters to Chinese interests, is a clear illustration of what's to come).

To be sure, it's possible to reach the same diagnosis I have here and nevertheless draw precisely the opposite conclusions: "We should accommodate Russia. Ukraine is a failed state no matter what we do. Let the Russians have this twilight zone." So say those who believe that it is still possible to fall back to the familiar "Let's Pretend!" game of the past. Even those who understand that the world now faces a much more formidable challenge calling for new and far reaching solutions still haven't fully grasped the meaning of the new reality unfolding before our eyes.

Ironically, the 1991 Soviet collapse did not guarantee the gradual rise of liberal civilization. We are witnessing its crisis twenty years later. Perhaps, the West needs rivals like the former Soviet Union to sustain itself and remain true to form. The West needs to return to its mission and core values in order to respond to Putin's Russia, but doing so calls for taking stock of the mistakes and dashed hopes of the past. It requires an overhaul of long-standing and ostensibly immutable institutions and principles, including: the European security system (particularly as it pertains to energy security); issues involving democratic transitions, war and peace, and global government and responsibility; and the role of the normative dimension in foreign policy.

What a mess Putin has gotten us all into! But let's also give him his due: He has paved the way for the emergence of new trends—or at least he's called the existing ones into serious question. He has also facilitated the formation of Ukrainian national identity, ensuring that the country will never again become a mere extension of Russia. He has thus undermined his own dream—that of creating the Eurasian Union. He has precipitated a crisis in his own country, making its future path completely unpredictable. And finally, he has reminded NATO of its mission and prompted the liberal democracies to reflect on their own principles.

Now, it is entirely up to the West. The liberal democracies may choose to return to their foundations. If not, the accommodators—those who hope for a return to the old "Let's pretend!" game—will win. If they do, this will give a green light to the Authoritarian Internationale, signaling that the West is weak and can be trampled underfoot.

QuoteDon't Mess With Nuclear Russia, Putin Warns at Youth Camp

LAKE SELIGER, Russia — President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Russia's armed forces, backed by its nuclear arsenal, were ready to meet any aggression, declaring at a pro-Kremlin youth camp that foreign states should understand: "It's best not to mess with us."

Putin told the assembly, on the banks of a lake near Moscow, the Russian takeover of Crimea in March was essential to save a largely Russian-speaking population from Ukrainian government violence. He said continued fighting in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists launched an uprising in April, was the result of a refusal by Kiev to negotiate.

Ukraine and Western governments accuse Russia of sending troops and armor to back the separatists in a conflict that has already killed over 2,000 people. Russia denies the charge.

"Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts," he said at the camp on the banks of Lake Seliger. "We don't want that and don't plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression toward Russia.

"Russia's partners ... should understand it's best not to mess with us," said Putin, dressed casually in a grey sweater and light blue jeans.

"Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers."

Putin spoke easily with the students, many of whom looked to be asking scripted questions about demography and history. Other times he accepted gifts or, smilingly, played down their praise.

When a student said that she had not heard a single negative comment about Putin's presidency from camp speakers, he responded with a grin that "objectivity" was important.

His tone darkened when speaking about Ukraine, blaming the United States and the European Union for the "unconstitutional" removal of Kiev's former Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovych and replacement with a pro-European government.

He said eastern Ukraine did not agree with Yanukovych's removal and was now subjected to "crude military force" from government planes, tanks and artillery.

"If those are contemporary European values, then I'm simply disappointed in the highest degree," he said, comparing Ukraine's military operations in the east of the country with the Nazi siege of Leningrad in World War Two.

"Small villages and large cities surrounded by the Ukrainian army which is directly hitting residential areas with the aim of destroying the infrastructure ... It sadly reminds me of the events of the Second World War, when German fascist ... occupiers surrounded our cities."

QuoteMr Putin also called the crisis a "tragedy" and said: "People who have their own views on history and the history of our country may argue with me, but it seems to me that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one people".

Quote from: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:12:46 PM
Norwegian Army (or what's left of it) deploys to Latvia.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2014, 07:19:23 PM

Quote from: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:12:46 PM
Norwegian Army (or what's left of it) deploys to Latvia.

Did you take a new card?

Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 07:56:57 PM
What scares me most is that if the reputation of that Russian paper is legit, then currently in Russia making at the very least puppet states out of the NATO member Baltic States isthe part of mainstream political discussions.
Which is crazy.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 01:33:47 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Really? To be honest I have not noticed any "awakening" in the West or any marked change of policy.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 30, 2014, 02:53:12 AM

Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 01:33:47 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Really? To be honest I have not noticed any "awakening" in the West or any marked change of policy.

The shooting followed a round of sanctions.  Before that most of Europe seemed content to just sit around with their collective thumbs up their asses.

Quote from: Tonitrus on August 30, 2014, 02:35:59 AM
Indeed.  The shot down airliner has pretty much disappeared from U.S. news.

If it were a U.S. airliner, there'd be 'Murrica!-laced shit flying all over.  Or at least, Obama would be taking huge amounts of crap from militantly enraged Republicans.

Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

Quote from: mongers on September 01, 2014, 06:38:06 AM
Watching a AJ report from the town/village of Starobeshve (sp?), three captured Ukrainian conscripts were interviewed, one said their unit came under intense artillery bombardment and 80% of their number were killed within the first 10 minutes; not sure that's the sort of firepower and co-ordination the rebels are capable of mustering.  :hmm:

QuoteAt talks in the Belarusian capital, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics have urged Kiev to acknowledge their autonomy within Ukraine, but said they wish to remain an integral part of the country.

Quote from: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 06:43:32 AM

Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

We have two crazies fighting for them too. Communists, even.

(http://http:deltiempo.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/antifascistas-espac3b1oles.jpg?w=1840&h=1228)

Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 07:57:04 AM

Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Uhm, no.  :huh:

Quote from: Syt on September 01, 2014, 10:33:03 AM
Italian paper La Republicca says that Putin in a recent call with Manuel Barroso has said that Putin could take Kiev in two weeks if he wanted to.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 01, 2014, 10:35:41 AM
Big deal.  I want to know if he can beat Monty to Caen.

QuoteRussia Has Threatened Nuclear Attack, Says Ukraine Defence Minister

Kiev has received threats of nuclear retaliation from Russia through unofficial channels if it continues to fight pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Heletey, announced on his Facebook page on Monday.'

"The Russian side has threatened on several occasions across unofficial channels that, in the case of continued resistance they are ready to use a tactical nuclear weapon against us," Heletey's statement reads.

The minister goes on to say that Russia's "hybrid war" in Ukraine is at an end, accusing the Kremlin of attempting a "full-scale invasion". Heletey called for all Ukrainian forces to "consolidate" and "begin building defences against Russia," insisting today "the operation to liberate the Eastern Ukraine against terrorism is complete".

Heletey's cryptic message comes after rapidly escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine over continuing reports of Russian military activity near the separatist-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine.

Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Russian president Vladimir Putin had said in a phone call European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso he could "take Kiev in two weeks" if he wanted to.

Last week two groups of Russian soldiers were captured by Ukrainian forces, which the Kremlin insisted had not entered Ukraine as part of a military operation.

The Kremlin has gone on record to deny any military involvement in Ukraine, insisting that all Russians fighting for Ukrainian eastern separatist forces are not stationed on military duty but are there as volunteers, despite mounting evidence that a full-scale military operation is underway.

But Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of "direct and undisguised aggression" shortly before the Ukrainian military said it had retreated from a strategically valuable airport near the city of Luhansk today, after coming into contact with a Russian tank battalion.

Western leaders have condemned Russian military activity in Ukraine with British Prime Minister David Cameron branding Russian troops' presence in Ukraine "unacceptable and unjustified", while Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has called on Russia to cease its "aggressive behaviour".

The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia's total inventory of nuclear warheads at 8,000, 1,600 of which are strategically operational.

Quote from: Tyr on September 01, 2014, 07:35:55 AM

Quote from: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 06:43:32 AM

Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

We have two crazies fighting for them too. Communists, even.

Anti-fascists....fighting FOR the Russians?
They're not doing it right.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 01, 2014, 12:22:56 PM
The Russians say all sorts of bizarre things, who can tell?  They may have also told the Ukrainians that they plan to air drop millions of maggots on Kiev.

Quote from: Syt on September 01, 2014, 12:20:01 PM
Yeah, I don't find it very credible. Even if he were to only use weapons with low kt yield, he would be an immediate pariah.

Unless there's little fallout from his decision, proving that nukes are a valid battlefield weapon, encouraging others.

Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 08:03:03 AM

Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 07:57:04 AM

Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Uhm, no.  :huh:

Everyone knows you will be all over Russian boots when they march down the streets of Moscow  :P

And if not, exceptions prove the rule :P

Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

QuotePutin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN?

Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 01, 2014, 03:13:43 PM

Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

That says much more about the stupidity of the socialist fighters than it does about the legitimacy of Russia's position.

Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 11:26:24 AM
I think you are wrong (could be about how media are reporting this in the West - this is, obviously, a much bigger topic here in Poland) - essentially, my impression is that every time there is an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, there is a new round of sanctions. From that perspective, since the shooting down of the plane was, obviously, an escalation, there was a new round of sanctions, but there were sanctions before and after that, too, and the ones connected with the plane were not particularly stronger or outstanding.

QuoteAnti-fascists....fighting FOR the Russians?
They're not doing it right.

QuoteIncidentally, in times like this, gotta love the Europe's Green Party. If coal is a no-no, extraction of shale gas under Europe is a no-no, drilling for oil in the North Sea is a no-no, and the nuclear power is a no-no, it's hard to see how they are not paid off by Putin (and if they are doing it for free, they are even greater idiots).

Quote from: Liep on September 01, 2014, 05:15:33 PM
Tusk is already pulling out the big guns and is calling Russia for Nazis. That'll stop 'em.

Quote from: DGuller on September 01, 2014, 01:10:52 PM
Let's say Russia does use tactical nukes.  What exactly can we do about it?  I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I don't see how the nuclear game doesn't play into the hands of the crazier actor.

Quote from: Syt on September 02, 2014, 02:39:31 AM
Russia restates that they will take further NATO expansion in Eastern Europe into account in their military planning.

One thing that the Russians don't seem to understand - yes, it's somewhat understandable that they have some political interest in what goes on in their neighboring countries and want friendly governments there.

What they don't seem to get is that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Membership in NATO or the EU is voluntary, and something countries work on to achieve.

Bringing countries into the Russian sphere usually means pushing, bullying and threatening. I wonder why so many countries prefer looking westward, then.

The sad thing is that I'm sure that Russia thinks the West is doing the same, but being deceitful about it by hiding behind their so called Western values.

QuoteKazakhstan is latest Russian neighbour to feel Putin's chilly nationalist rhetoric

As Obama reassures Baltic states of Nato's protection, Kazakhs wonder if they will follow Ukraine, Chechnya and Georgia

Barack Obama leaves Washington on Tuesday for the small Baltic state of Estonia on Russia's north-western border to reassure the vulnerable country that it is safe within Nato from Vladimir Putin's clutches.

En route to Wales for a Nato summit that Putin, in Ukraine, has transformed into the most important such gathering since the end of the cold war, Obama will reiterate the alliance's '"all-for-one and one-for-all" defence pledges of Nato's article five commitments, seeking to assuage Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Romanian fears of revisionist Kremlin regional ambitions.

Putin's campaign in Ukraine, his seizure of Crimea and his invasion of eastern the country have the Baltic states and Poland in told-you-so mood. They have been clamouring for years for greater commitments from the west and voicing their suspicions of Russia. Ukraine has vindicated their angst, but generated an ambivalent response in the rest of Europe, including in the east where the Czechs, Slovaks, and Hungarians are much more inclined to give Putin the benefit of the doubt.

About one in four Estonians are ethnic Russians or native Russian-speakers, a bigger proportion than in Ukraine, where Putin justified his actions by referring to the defence of Russophones and ethnic Russians. Latvia, where about 30% are ethnic Russians, feels similarly exposed to Putin's summoning of Russian nationalism.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary general of Nato, told the Guardian last week: "Obviously some of our member states are very concerned that the Russians say they reserve their right to intervene in other countries if they consider it necessary to protect the interests of Russian-speaking populations in other countries. Obviously, that creates a lot of concern among the allies."

But it is in the south, not in the north-west, that the chilly blast of Putin's rhetoric is being felt, far away from Europe and from Nato.

In little-noticed remarks last week, he called into question the legitimacy of the post-Soviet state of Kazakhstan while ordering the Kazakhs to be on their best behaviour when it came to serving Russian interests.

The remarks, to an audience of young people in Russia on Friday, sent shock waves through the central Asian republic, which also hosts a large ethnic Russian minority centred in the north on the Russian border.

Putin said there had never been a country called Kazakhstan, that the republic was purely the product of the current president, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

"I am confident that a majority of its population supports development of close ties with Russia," said Putin. "Nazarbayev is a prudent leader, even the most prudent in the post-Soviet space. He would never act against the will of his country's people."

Kazakhstan, he said, was "part of the large Russian world that is part of the global civilisation in terms of industry and advanced technologies. I am confident that that's the way things are going to be in the medium – and long-term."

Nazarbayev had "done a unique thing. He created a state in a territory that had never had a state before. The Kazakhs had no statehood."

When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, it left 25 million Russians in new countries on Russia's rim, – what Moscow calls the "near abroad". Putin, who has called the USSR's collapse the 20th century's greatest tragedy, although it was seen in most of the "captive" countries as a liberation, has played the ethnic card to stir up trouble, justified his actions in the name of the defence of Russians, and generally displayed a proprietorial attitude towards Russia's neighbours, using trade and energy as weapons to get them to toe the line.

Ukraine is his third war in the post-Soviet space. He crushed the Chechen rebellion. He invaded Georgia and still controls two chunks of it. He now controls tracts of Ukraine. Russia has long held on to the Transnistria slice of Moldova.

Nazarbayev was unimpressed by Putin's views on Kazakh statehood and threatened to loosen ties with Russia, which could provoke a forceful Kremlin reaction.

"Our independence is our dearest treasure, which our grandfathers fought for," Nazarbayev said. "First of all, we will never surrender it to someone, and secondly, we will do our best to protect it ... Kazakhstan will not be part of organisations that pose a threat to our independence."

Unlike Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the Baltic states are members of both the European Union and Nato.

Rasmussen insisted that any attack on a Baltic member state would be met not only with national forces but would be confronted by international Nato forces.

It is unlikely to come to that. But exploiting Estonia or Latvia's ethnic minorities, choking the states by cutting off energy, provocations and destabilisation attempts supported by well-orchestrated propaganda – what Nato officials call "hybrid warfare" after Putin's successful tactics in Ukraine – might leave the west labouring to respond.

Nato alone could not deal with Putin's tactics, Rasmussen admitted.

"You see a sophisticated combination of traditional warfare and disinformation campaigns. This is not only a Nato issue. When it comes to hybrid warfare, we will need more than Nato to counter this."

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:01:01 AM
Sure is a good thing military spending and things like NATO are unnecessary dinosaurs that can largely be ignored.

Europe should cut defense spending some more.

QuoteAugust 31, 2014: The recent ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria) misbehavior (mass murder and so on) in Syria and Iraq has caused a public uproar in Europe and generated demands that NATO send forces to try and stop all the killing. The German government responded on August 20th with a pledge to send weapons to the Kurds who are fighting ISIL in northern Iraq. But Germany was reluctant to send warplanes or troops. A few days later a German Defense Ministry readiness report was leaked and it made it clear why even getting weapons to the Kurds would be difficult. The report showed that only 8 percent of 109 Eurofighter (similar to the U.S. F-15), 11 percent of 67 CH-53 transport helicopters, and 10 percent of 33 NH90 helicopters were fully operational (not sidelined for upgrades, repairs or other problems.) However 38 percent of 56 C-160 twin turboprop transports were available. This made it possible to fly some weapons into northern Iraq, but not much else. Normally a combat ready military has at least half, and more normally over 70 percent of its warplanes ready to go. While this situation shocked many, those who have followed European military trends since the 1980s were not surprised.

Quote from: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 08:06:07 AM
:bleeding:

and we wonder why Putin is so aggressive. There is no army in Europe ready to slow him down.

Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 08:14:08 AM
:rolleyes: Soviet Union is dead, move on already.

Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 02, 2014, 08:51:44 AM

Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 08:14:08 AM
:rolleyes: Soviet Union is dead, move on already.

Problem is, so are the European defenses.  It's like the biggest cripple fight in the world.

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:09:23 AM
There is no way around it - Europe *must* recognize that they fucked up and let their military degrade way too much, and there isn't a fix for it that doesn't involve them spending money. And probably more money than it would have cost to just keep it in shape to begin with.

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:03:10 AM

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

The unfortunate hamstringer for NATO is its very strength:  the nuclear deterrent.  Unfortunately, having nothing of a credible conventional capability between "strong letter to follow" and "full attack conference" is that it allows for absolutely no graduated response in a crisis that leads to direct conflict.  There's no room built into the equation for time in developing a political resolution.

If the Russians try to march to Riga, our options are limited.  Which is why I said earlier in the thread, if he moves on NATO, that's the whole ballgame.  Hopefully the nuclear battlefield would be restricted to eastern Europe, but it is established doctrine that strikes on Russian soil would require in-turn retaliation.

If Putin believes that his actions would result in 1) nothing, or 2) a nuclear response, that's a high risk/high reward roll of the dice I believe he'd make.  Is Riga or Warsaw worth Paris, London or New York?

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:07:57 AM

Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

False dilemna.

If European NATO countries had a viable military, perhaps Putin wouldn't be so confident that he could defy them.

And "going to war with Russia" is hardly the only other option.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

And yet Russia can actually move troops around and invade their neighbors, while Germany cannot keep even 1/4th of their fighters in the air...

Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 10:12:45 AM
I am certain that NATO the United States' air forces are superior to what the Russians have, whatever the shortcomings of some members.

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:09:42 AM
But no worries, the real issue for nations like Germany is whether or not the US might be spying on them or not.

Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 10:12:45 AM

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:07:57 AM

Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

False dilemna.

If European NATO countries had a viable military, perhaps Putin wouldn't be so confident that he could defy them.

And "going to war with Russia" is hardly the only other option.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

And yet Russia can actually move troops around and invade their neighbors, while Germany cannot keep even 1/4th of their fighters in the air...

I am certain that NATO air forces are superior to what the Russians have, whatever the shortcomings of some members.

Quote from: Syt on September 02, 2014, 04:57:58 AM
Putin reminding Kazakhstan who's boss:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/kazakhstan-russian-neighbour-putin-chilly-nationalist-rhetoric

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AMSince NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...

Quote from: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 01:20:54 PM
It's more inefficient than if it was a sole country, of course.

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 01:18:06 PM

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AMSince NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...

I know you're speaking generally and in aggregate, and that the Germans and others weigh heavily there, but I like to think that Canada, Denmark, and the UK are generally keeping up their end of the bargain (or at the very least keeping up the pretext, as you say)?

Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report)

Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:10:37 PM
Denmark is a fairly small country, nobody expects them to have a carrier group or anything.  Britain on the other hand, is expected do something like that.  Canada did have a carrier in the cold war it was a small one, so small that everyone seemed to think the Canadians were crazy to land jets on it.  Worked though.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:10:37 PM

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report)

Denmark is a fairly small country, nobody expects them to have a carrier group or anything.  Britain on the other hand, is expected do something like that.  Canada did have a carrier in the cold war it was a small one, so small that everyone seemed to think the Canadians were crazy to land jets on it.  Worked though.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 02, 2014, 03:17:20 PM
SO, does Obama have a plan yet? Cause by the time the european leaders have extracted their heads from their arses they'll find their necks annexed by Putin.

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
It's kind of scary how completely leaderless NATO seems. There doesn't seem to be any actual idea or plan from anyone.

Obama certainly is not leading anything. Is anyone?

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
It's kind of scary how completely leaderless NATO seems. There doesn't seem to be any actual idea or plan from anyone.

Obama certainly is not leading anything. Is anyone?

Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:20:12 PM
I'm sure we have a secret strategy all worked out.

Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:48:20 PM
Something!  :mad:

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 04:45:07 PM
Those of you wondering about our strategy, what are you looking for? What are the goals that should be pursued? What are actions that would facilitate those goals?

Personally, I'm not super keen on going all-out to the mat against Russia over the Ukraine. So along those lines, I'm not really in favour of blustery rhetoric. Bright red lines are only worth something if there's muscular action ready to go behind it, and much as I loathe Putin I don't think the possible upsides of muscular action is worth the potential downsides.

I also think that if Putin wants to turn Russia into some version of a totalitarian propaganda driven state then that's what he's going to do, whatever the West does. Influencing that is pretty outside our range of actions at this point; the end to that will come, if it comes at all, as a result of internal Russian conditions.

It seems to me that the way to play this is to try to bleed Putin out rather than give him a big confrontation. So yeah, economic sanctions that hurt and proxy war in the Ukraine, escalating from soft to medium firm or even hard over time. Right now, Putin is all tough and winning and oh so macho, but how long is this going to last? What are the achievable exit strategies for Putin? It seems to me that he runs a real risk of this turning into another Afghanistan or Iraq occupation and those aren't that fun.

So yeah, I don't know enough about the particulars of every given response, and I find the mealy mouthed wishing things were different or straight up Putin appreciation out of certain quarters pretty annoying, but it seems to me that what's happening now is more or less what we should be doing - ratcheting up the consequences and laying the rhetorical groundwork for funnelling in support to the Ukraine.

What should we be doing?

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PM
I don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 04:45:07 PM
Those of you wondering about our strategy, what are you looking for? What are the goals that should be pursued? What are actions that would facilitate those goals?

Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PMThat all sounds great, but it strikes me as slapping a "strategy" on what we are doing, not what we are doing being the result of a strategy.