Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I hope Belarus do invade. Getting rid of the regime there and reducing the amount Ukraine has to keep watching the border sounds nice.

[celedhring]

I hope Belarus do invade. [...] reducing the amount Ukraine has to keep watching the border sounds nice.

I'm not sure how those follow 

[Josquius]

I hope Belarus do invade. [...] reducing the amount Ukraine has to keep watching the border sounds nice.

I'm not sure how those follow 

A Belarus that is no longer a Putin puppet and maybe even pro ukraine presents a hefty speed bump for a Russian invasion from that direction, meaning Ukraine can divert some of its troops from the border.

[Legbiter]

Belarus doesn't have nukes. Destroy them if they attack.

Lukashenko's too crafty to get rolled into directly participating. All his administrative energy is anyway currently devoted to shoring up the Strategic Potato Reserve.

[Legbiter]

I wonder what the motive behind all these accidents is.  Is it Casino-style clean-up of people in the know, is it NKVD identifying a real conspiracy by oligarchs against Putin and offing the participants, is it a civil war among elites?  It seems too organized for the last one, so I assume it's Russian intelligence at work, but for what reason?

Keeps potential chaos and sedition in check if you semi-randomly kill off a certain amount of the elite during difficult times. Managed woodland burns, if you will.

[Sheilbh]

Also remember reading that organised crime in Russia is in a bit of flux and struggling/fighting it out a bit - in part from what I read because many networks still existed and worked with Ukrainian gangsters post-2014 which is now gone. So different networks and geographies are taking over and there's a bit of fighting over this. Given the links between crime, business and the state in Russia I wonder if that's part of it too?

[DGuller]

Does organized crime of the non-governmental variety have enough resources and desire to off people by suicide or accidents?  That seems like government work.  As much of a mess of feuding fiefdoms as Russian government is, I don't think FSB or the likes are in the contract killing business, I think they only fulfill government orders.

[Josquius]

Does organized crime of the non-governmental variety have enough resources and desire to off people by suicide or accidents?  That seems like government work.  As much of a mess of feuding fiefdoms as Russian government is, I don't think FSB or the likes are in the contract killing business, I think they only fulfill government orders.

Less contract killing and more the senior spies actually are part of the mob leadership/shareholders no?

[HVC]

Some Russian gangsters/oligarchs have more cash and resources then countries

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Does organized crime of the non-governmental variety have enough resources and desire to off people by suicide or accidents?  That seems like government work.  As much of a mess of feuding fiefdoms as Russian government is, I don't think FSB or the likes are in the contract killing business, I think they only fulfill government orders.

If organised crime is on about the same level (if not worse) as in the west: then they've got money to spare to hire the  people to do what they want done.

[Jacob]

Does organized crime of the non-governmental variety have enough resources and desire to off people by suicide or accidents?  That seems like government work.  As much of a mess of feuding fiefdoms as Russian government is, I don't think FSB or the likes are in the contract killing business, I think they only fulfill government orders.

It doesn't seem that resource intensive to have a few burly dude shove someone out of a window?

And there's the bit where FSB members may have a side hustle with the mob - or whole elements of the FSB potentially being their own mob?

[Sheilbh]

Less contract killing and more the senior spies actually are part of the mob leadership/shareholders no?

Yeah that was my thought. Basically I just wondered how porous the boundaries are between Russian state, elite civil war and gang warfare?

[PJL]

Does organized crime of the non-governmental variety have enough resources and desire to off people by suicide or accidents?  That seems like government work.  As much of a mess of feuding fiefdoms as Russian government is, I don't think FSB or the likes are in the contract killing business, I think they only fulfill government orders.

It doesn't seem that resource intensive to have a few burly dude shove someone out of a window?

And there's the bit where FSB members may have a side hustle with the mob - or whole elements of the FSB potentially being their own mob?

To have total power you need to control both sides of the law.

[DGuller]

It's definitely the case that in Russia, organized crime merged into government at all levels.  US was exactly right in its cables when it called Russia a mafia state.  The oligarchs took the place of heads of families (although they were demoted to caporegime status over time), and law enforcement replaced gopniks in tracksuits. 

The reason I'm skeptical that capos are offing one another on their own initiative using FSB is that this would represent a direct challenge to Putin.  In mafia, capos can't just decide to take a hit on each other without the head of the family approving, and they certainly can't use the muscle that belongs to the head of family to do that.  The oligarchs may have a lot of resources, but it takes more than resources to reliably arrange accidents and suicides on foreign soil, it requires a strong network of agents.

[DGuller]

Zelensky visited Bakhmut. On the one hand, I really admire his courage, and I'm sure the morale effect is real from such visits.  On the other hand, I really hope he has good succession plan in place, because him getting killed is one of the few Black Swan events that can really turn the tide of the war.