Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I've seen it argued - and I believe it's true - that we should encourage Russians - especially skilled Russians - to leave. Every young man who leaves is one less pair of boots on the ground when Russia mobilizes fully, and every skilled worker is one less pair of hands and one less brain to rebuild the Russian production capacity from the crater left from Western sanctions.

As such I think our actions - including boycotts - should facilitate that (where it doesn't contradict some other higher priority goal). Personally, I think that means encouraging and supporting anti-regime Russians outside of Russia as part of that, and even facilitating neutralish / apolitical skilled Russians leaving the country because there's no future there.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Otto seems to forget that even at the height of the Cold War, we didn't hate the Russian people.  We understood they were as much a victim of the Soviet regime as anyone.  But Otto hates peoples as a group be they Muslim or, now Russian - although in fairness to him he has stated he has always hated Russians.

Care to name any other groups you hate Otto?

As usual your simplistic thinking has painted you into a corner. No one has said anything about "hating" people based on Russian ethnic heritage. Most Americans did not have a positive feeling about the "Russian people" during the Cold War. The "Russian People" were not victims of the Soviet system--they created and perpetuated it, they are not victims of Putin, they created and perpetuate him. You have a very simplistic and frankly stupid way of thinking if you believe that just because a country isn't a Western democracy that a government does not have the support of most of its people, or that most of its people do not agree with actions that we in the West would define as evil.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've seen it argued - and I believe it's true - that we should encourage Russians - especially skilled Russians - to leave. Every young man who leaves is one less pair of boots on the ground when Russia mobilizes fully, and every skilled worker is one less pair of hands and one less brain to rebuild the Russian production capacity from the crater left from Western sanctions.

As such I think our actions - including boycotts - should facilitate that (where it doesn't contradict some other higher priority goal). Personally, I think that means encouraging and supporting anti-regime Russians outside of Russia as part of that, and even facilitating neutralish / apolitical skilled Russians leaving the country because there's no future there.

100%, yes. We always encouraged defectors during the Cold War. We did not celebrate those who did not defect, though. That doesn't mean we necessarily hated them on an individual level, but we also knew that they tacitly supported the Soviet regime. We are entering a new Cold War, and this is going to be the new normal.

Note that at least all of the (small handful) of instances I've seen reported on about Russian personas being "canceled" from Western appearances, the people in question have not done the equivalent of "defecting" from Russia. The famous Russian composer for example was friendly with Putin, and has never and did not denounce Putin, the invasion or etc. The Russian opera singer while less political than the composer, likewise, has spoken positively about Putin's regime, and was still loyal to it. This Russian pianist has spoken out against the war, but he has not defected or decided to cross into denouncing the regime.

I would have a very, very different opinion about a Russian national with a British or American citizenship who has no material loyalty to Russia being discriminated against than I would a Russian celebrity who has refused to sever ties with the regime.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tcUMsD4uO8

US has upped its estimate of Russian dead to 6,000.

[crazy canuck]

Otto seems to forget that even at the height of the Cold War, we didn't hate the Russian people.  We understood they were as much a victim of the Soviet regime as anyone.  But Otto hates peoples as a group be they Muslim or, now Russian - although in fairness to him he has stated he has always hated Russians.

Care to name any other groups you hate Otto?

As usual your simplistic thinking has painted you into a corner. No one has said anything about "hating" people based on Russian ethnic heritage. Most Americans did not have a positive feeling about the "Russian people" during the Cold War. The "Russian People" were not victims of the Soviet system--they created and perpetuated it, they are not victims of Putin, they created and perpetuate him. You have a very simplistic and frankly stupid way of thinking if you believe that just because a country isn't a Western democracy that a government does not have the support of most of its people, or that most of its people do not agree with actions that we in the West would define as evil.

Wait, the Bolsheviks didn't fight a civil war - the Soviets were just placed in power by the Russian people?  Its true, you would do well in Putin's Russia.  It is at least comforting that you are the only American here with your point of view.   

[DGuller]

Same thing with Germany - why did the Germans keep fighting in late 1943? 1944? Did they lack any rational people who could see that the war was lost? Of course not. They had LOTS of perfectly rational people who knew EXACTLY what the next couple of years was going to look like. But the war went on and on and on and did not end until Russians had physically conquered damn near every inch of Germany.

My vague and possible wrong understanding of the German motivation in 1944 was that they were hoping for a separate peace.  If they could just hold out long enough, the Allies and the Soviets would turn on each other before finishing with Germany.  At the very least Germans would have some power to set the terms of the peace treaty.

[Jacob]

So in Danish media I'm seeing the government discussing that maybe the EU (and the US and Canada) should forbid exporting tank and other military grade fuel to Russia....

Sounds like a good idea, that. Hopefully we'll get right on that.

[Berkut]

Same thing with Germany - why did the Germans keep fighting in late 1943? 1944? Did they lack any rational people who could see that the war was lost? Of course not. They had LOTS of perfectly rational people who knew EXACTLY what the next couple of years was going to look like. But the war went on and on and on and did not end until Russians had physically conquered damn near every inch of Germany.

My vague and possible wrong understanding of the German motivation in 1944 was that they were hoping for a separate peace.  If they could just hold out long enough, the Allies and the Soviets would turn on each other before finishing with Germany.  At the very least Germans would have some power to set the terms of the peace treaty.

That is rationalization, not rational thinking.

That is trying to come up with a theory, a fig leaf, to allow you to not admit that what you are doing is demonstrably stupid, but you don't have the power or will to do something else.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW at least in international relations a country isn't necessarily required to be "reasonable" to be a "rational actor", in IR rational actor just means their decision making follows predictable logic based on how that country tends to operate. That doesn't mean that their decision making has to make sense against some higher order level of logic.

[Legbiter]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tcUMsD4uO8

US has upped its estimate of Russian dead to 6,000.

Grain of salt, etc but if this is true this is a total shitshow on the Russian part. Not complaining or anything.

[Jacob]

BBC report from Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1502000265490227206?s=20&t=7QN8xXn3kOF6GhmOmGJ3jg

Contains dead Russians/Chechens.

That's quite something. Thanks for sharing.

Seeing the eight-year old boy in the hospital with the shrapnel wounds, right before going out to pick up my own eight-year old boy from school. Intellectually, of course, I know what is happening and am not surprised, but still

[CountDeMoney]

Personally, I appreciate seeing combat footage without the constant shouts of "Allah Ackbar!" ruining the soundtrack for a change. It's refreshing.

[Jacob]

For the tactics nerds, here's the US's Russian New Generation Warfare Handbook (Unclassified version) from 2016.

[grumbler]

You're right that we didn't discriminate between "good" Germans and "bad" Germans or good Japanese and bad Japanese during WWII.  We bombed the hell out of both and starved them both by sinking their shipping. 

When did we bomb the hell out of Albert Einstein (a German) or Enrico Fermi (an Italian)?

Or did we, in fact, discriminate when we could between "goo Germans" and "bad Germans?"

The whole "you are bad people because you care" argument by Otto is bonkers.

[Valmy]

Freedom and liberty includes the freedom of the concert venue to cancel a performance or choose who to schedule or not to schedule.  Is it unfair to the perfomer?  Maybe but that is a risk of a career based on getting members of the general public to pay money to see you perform.    (eg last I checked people weren't flocking to see performances by pro-regime Iranian musicians either).

Certainly, and during the cold war some Russians did pretty well in the West.  Because we did not actually hate all Russians.  In fact we encouraged defectors - I suppose that was a defect....

This is just early war bullshit. We will all feel very bad about this soon and then probably learn nothing from it and do it again.