Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Serious question. When was the last time we've seen Lukashenko in public?
Really doesn't add up he would be the mediator. Smells like a face saving move that explains Priggy technically leaving Russia.
The question that stands to me is who did he speak to. Was it Putin (or a follower. Seems likely it would be the man himself if this was the case) or another power in Russia?
Rumours going around priggy was promised the presidency next election if he chills for now. Certainly something doesn't add up with the surface story.

[Tamas]

My Russian YouTuber guy thinks it was the governor of Tula (appointed in 2017, former bodyguard of Putin) who more likely actually did the negotiation, being physically closer to the Wagner convoy (also in terms of his fiefdom) and far more reliable a Putin ally than Lukashenka ever was. But of course this is just speculation.

Also I have seen that the recently releases video footage meant to show Shoigu being all well and at work had his wrist watch blurred out...

[FunkMonk]

So ultimately this seems like a case of a guy getting sick of fighting a useless war, so he marched on the capital to get a deal that sends him and his most trusted soldiers far away to Africa where they can get rich mining diamonds.

Seems like a good deal for Prig.

I think he expected his column to meet substantial resistance, there would be a tense standoff, then negotiations ending in concessions and brotherly reconciliation.

Except, whoops, looks like the Emperor has no clothes and the state is completely impotent. Now it's either go all the way and take Moscow and try to become the new Czar, which Prig doesn't want to do, or stop at the last moment and make everyone involved look like imbeciles.

Yeah that's my impression too. Pringles never wanted to start a civil war and took a deal from Pootin. Pringles spooked himself into exile.

It's crazy that no one really knows anything about what just happened in a country with the world's largest nuclear stockpile.

[Barrister]

It seems there's been no communication or appearance by Prigozhin or Putin since Saturday. Seems strange for Putin he should be interested in seeming be large and in charge.

Prigozhin released audio message today.

[mongers]

If I were Prigozhin and wanted to for more than a few weeks, I'd slip over the border in to Lithuania (assuming one's really in Belarus) and hand myself into the international criminal court in the Hague; a holding cell there is probably the safest place in Europe for him at the moment.

[Caliga]

I'm thinking it likely in the very near future either Progozhin or Putin is going to accidentally fall out of an eight story window.  Just not sure which of them it will be.

[Valmy]

Seems to me Prigozhin violated the central tenant of the Game of Thrones. He will not live long.

[frunk]

The whole Lukashenko thing doesn't make sense to me.  I think that Putin tried to make lemonade out of lemons by offering Prigozhin to become the defacto ruler of Belarus, and I'll bet there's some condition to get them to open up another front in the north.

[Tamas]

The whole Lukashenko thing doesn't make sense to me.  I think that Putin tried to make lemonade out of lemons by offering Prigozhin to become the defacto ruler of Belarus, and I'll bet there's some condition to get them to open up another front in the north.

Except, why would he offer such a prize to the mutineer? Was he really in that deep shit? Even if he was, why would he actually go ahead with honouring that deal? Why would Lukashenka agree to it?

[DGuller]

It makes sense if both sides felt extreme weakness and didn't have the balls to go all-in and hope for the best.  Who else would be the mediator if not Lukashenko?  In the long run, I would think that it's still a blunder by at least one of them, you don't cross the Rubicon and then go "never mind, I'll go back and chill, we cool?"

I still hope that at least one consequence of this is that Lukashenko would realize his hand is stronger than it seemed.  Say what you will about him, but he's a shrewd survivor, and he neither wants to be Putin's vassal nor does he want anything to do with the war.  Him being able to disentangle himself from Putin and Russia is probably a good thing.

[Barrister]

The whole Lukashenko thing doesn't make sense to me.  I think that Putin tried to make lemonade out of lemons by offering Prigozhin to become the defacto ruler of Belarus, and I'll bet there's some condition to get them to open up another front in the north.

I think I understand it.

Remember it was only  afew years ago (2020-2021) that Lukashenko was facing serious street protests against the latest fraudulent election.  IT ultimately required Russian troops coming into Belarus to assist, which seriously weakened Lukashanko.  He probably would not have allowed Putin to invade Ukraine through Belarus if not for having had to allow Russian troops into the country in the first place.

So now Lukashenko gets his own private army that is more loyal to him than to Putin, if nothing else.

And as for Prigozhin, 25,000 men is a fair number, but not really enough to take over a country, even an only moderately-sized on like Belarus.  A march on Moscow was always kind of a desperate move by Prigozhin, so when offered an alternative he took it.

[Barrister]

Putin apparently gave a speech, denounced Wagner and Prigozhin though said anyone going to Belarus would be honored, said he took the deal to avoid bloodshed.

[Tamas]

Putin apparently gave a speech, denounced Wagner and Prigozhin though said anyone going to Belarus would be honored, said he took the deal to avoid bloodshed.

No doubt there'll be a lot of people seeing this as further proof that Putin is playing 4D chess to mislead the West and overrun Ukraine with Wagner from Belarus.

[Sheilbh]

If I were Prigozhin and wanted to for more than a few weeks, I'd slip over the border in to Lithuania (assuming one's really in Belarus) and hand myself into the international criminal court in the Hague; a holding cell there is probably the safest place in Europe for him at the moment.

Yeah I think there's no way he's going to Belarus. He'll be miles away - I imagine he'll want to see if Angola or Belize are open.

Putin apparently gave a speech, denounced Wagner and Prigozhin though said anyone going to Belarus would be honored, said he took the deal to avoid bloodshed.

I wonder about Wagner in MENA. My understanding is that's where the elite troops still are (they weren't expended on the meat grinder) and having them as private operators provides a (more) deniable and cheaper way for Russia to project power and cause issues for Western allies (particularly France). Can't see that anyone would necessarily want them to be absorbed into the MoD or going to Belarus?

[Tamas]

So after the non-event press event by Putin (which was claimed to "change the country's fate", lol)  Putin was holding a security conference. Is it just me or he has aged a lot since last week?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673421897176842241