Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

Seems more likely than a suicide bomb to me. Planting explosives on a vehicle supporting the invasion.

But as said it doesn't seem to have been a truck bomb.

The Azerbaijan government has said one of its citizens was responsible.

[Valmy]

Seems more likely than a suicide bomb to me. Planting explosives on a vehicle supporting the invasion.

But as said it doesn't seem to have been a truck bomb.

The Azerbaijan government has said one of its citizens was responsible.

Wild. I guess he figured a blow to Russia is a blow to Armenia? Trying to secure freedom for the Tartar homeland?

There are so many weird things about this conflict.

[Josquius]

A Google gives nothing about this Azeri terrorist?

[Jacob]

Personally I believe Putin's war in Ukraine makes perfect sense, looking at it from his point of view.

First off, I think the Russian point of view is - generally - one where those with less power obey those with more power. They genuinely believe that things like multilateralism and democracies are either pure shams to mislead the gullible, or expressions of weakness. There is no such thing as negotiations for mutual benefit; rather there is imposition of terms based on the relative strengths of the parties.

Secondly I think Putin and the people around him genuinely believe that Russia is a legitimate competitor for hegemony, a peer of China and the US (and filtered through their understanding of power and subservience as outlined above). They see themselves in full-out competition with the US, and have always thought so. They have been less flagrant about it in the 90s, but that's just them playing what they thought was a weak hand - the game was the same.

For the longest time, Putin used primarily his KGB/FSB playbook - subversion of individuals and organizations in various ways, both to claim power in Russia and to undermine the West.

In the last many years he's felt very successful. He's bagged high profile pop-culture and media people, Western oligarchs and high level politicians across Europe and the US, and he's nurtured European dependence on cheap Russian energy. He's also been stoking the fires of populist reactionary movements in the West, destabilizing our institutions and fueling culture wars. It may be argued how much is homegrown and inevitable vs how much Putin had a decisive influence, but I think it's very clear that Putin's been trying his hardest.

The West looks in disarray. Red lines crossed in Syria, withdrawal from Afghanistan, ceding influence in Africa, Brexit, Hungary undermining the EU from within, Trump in the White House, Jan 6th coup attempt, LePen close to the presidency, populist right wing movements (sympathetic to Putin) within striking distance of power in a number of Western countries. At the same time, Russia's been acting with impunity in its near abroad, with Western responses clearly ineffective.

So Putin looks at the West and thinks he is playing a winning hand. Russia is ascending, bit by bit. The West is declining (and that's without going into all the "traditional values" culture war stuff, which I suspect he believes in at least a little bit). And, of course, China is growing more assertive as well and is aligned with Russia in this.

And so Putin looks at Ukraine and yes it's a step up, but it's fundamentally the same play he's already done in Georgia. It's an escalation, but he is confident he has enough levers to make the West back down and be ineffective (you can see the voices in our discourse he's relying on for that easily enough).

That's a pretty reasonable calculated gamble, with a reasonable chance of winning, based on the premises I think.

Of course, it turns out differently. It made sense according to Putin's read (and he wasn't the only one who had that read), but it turns out the read was wrong (or enough things break the wrong way for Putin). Ukraine resists fiercely. Zelensky becomes a popular hero. The West pulls together (with some difficulties). Biden acts pretty effectively. Putin's forces are being defeated and are pushed back. Russia's military is humiliated and its economy declining significantly.

But Putin's not finished at all (until he is, but that's not something I can predict). He's done less well than he hoped, but he's still playing the game of hegemony. So he's not going to give up. That would make no sense.

I expect his best bet is to hang on long enough for the West's coherency to break down (he hopes). How will that happen? Maybe Tucker Carlson, Flynn, et. al. manage to swing public opinion against the war or maybe Trump comes back (or both) resulting in American withdrawing support (or exerting pressure on Ukraine to settle). Maybe economic/ energy consequences in the EU is enough to flip a couple of major countries, resulting in dissolution of resolve there (and pressure to settle on Ukraine). Maybe something unexpected comes up (global famine? PRC vs China? Some Muslim thing?) that changes the table enough.

In any case, he'll hang in there betting he can sustain for longer than we can. And in the meantime, he's inflicting atrocities on innocent Ukrainians to make sure the price of resistance is seen to be very high - so when he comes back next time, or when he picks on someone else, they'll think twice about fighting back.

... I dunno, that seems pretty logical and coherent (if morally bankrupt and genuinely incorrect in various spots).

[The Brain]

In addition, it's possible Putin has a humiliation fetish. Ordinary Russians sure seem to.

[Barrister]

In any case, he'll hang in there betting he can sustain for longer than we can. And in the meantime, he's inflicting atrocities on innocent Ukrainians the make sure the price of resistance is seen to be very high - so when he comes back next time, or when he picks on someone else, they'll think twice about fighting back.

... I dunno, that seems pretty logical and coherent (if morally bankrupt and genuinely incorrect in various spots).

Yeah, just outlasting the West is about his last play here.  Either Trump comes into power, or western European citizens complain about gas prices, and then something similar to Musk's peace plan is agreed to.  And it's not entirely impossible to imagine these things happen.  There is some precedent, like Syria or Afghanistan (though the US was in Afghanistan for 20 years...)

But can he outlast the west?  He runs some very real risks of his own.  There's a coup of course - hard to predict.  Popular discontent from the mobilizations and rising Russian death toll.

Or just plan losing the War.  Russian forces pushed out of Crimea in a humiliating defeat.  Because the longer this war goes on the Russian military looks worse and worse.

[Admiral Yi]

A Google gives nothing about this Azeri terrorist?

I can't find anything either?  And I can't remember where I saw it now?

[Sheilbh]

Personally I believe Putin's war in Ukraine makes perfect sense, looking at it from his point of view.

Interestinng my take is absolutely different, possibly the opposite in terms of motivation/analysis of Putin - but leads to the same conclusions

I think it's less that he thought Russia was ascending but that Russia's window of opportunity was closing rapidly. Either he makes his dash for glory as the second Peter the Great/great ruler who goes down in history reuniting "Russian" lands - or he ages presiding over further decline.

[Josquius]

I'd agree with Jake that things looked very good for Putin to strike.
Thanks to Russias successes in 2014, which recieved minimal sanctions, and all the other various pushing around of the old empire they've gotten away with they figured this should be not too far beyond the pale of acceptable too.
On top of this they've had a lot of success with trump and brexit and out of this a general belief that nato was completely fractured and wouldn't be able to cooperate on anything.
And then yep, that Ukraine would hold up surprised everyone.

I'd diverge however in how the current situation looks... Putin must know he is fucked. He will still be hoping he can wait out the west and something can come up but he wants a way out of this now. The whole face saving escape that gets talked about by the likes of Musk with their let Russia win talk.
He has no idea what to do to turn things around. Hes doing all the things suggested, which is a worry, but in a very half arsed poorly thought out fashion.

Of course why should anyone else care about putins feelings. He has made his bed and he must now lie in it. He's trying to put on a brave face and mask how shit things are as he knows the minute the appearance cracks he's for the window.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I kind of disagree with Jake's analysis because it's basically saying "if you believe all of the incorrect things about how power work in the 21st century, like Putin does, then he is being logical." Internally consistent conclusions from an incorrect premise, are not logical, they are just consistent.

[Jacob]

I kind of disagree with Jake's analysis because it's basically saying "if you believe all of the incorrect things about how power work in the 21st century, like Putin does, then he is being logical." Internally consistent conclusions from an incorrect premise, are not logical, they are just consistent.

Sure, but isn't that just about the definition of "logical"?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think in formal logic you aren't required to accept a false premise, but rather the foundation of the premise has to be agreed upon by all parties. Pointing out disagreement with Putin's false premise would, in that context, be saying we don't have to entertain the logical consistency of an argument built from that premise.

[Jacob]

I think in formal logic you aren't required to accept a false premise, but rather the foundation of the premise has to be agreed upon by all parties. Pointing out disagreement with Putin's false premise would, in that context, be saying we don't have to entertain the logical consistency of an argument built from that premise.

Fair enough. Putin's actions are logical IF we accept his false premises... but we don't. I can live with that.

[grumbler]

I agree with Sheilbh.  It's not that things were going so well for Russia, it's that they were going badly for Russia and about to get worse.  This invasion was his attempt to strangle Ukraine in the crib, because that was only going to get harder over time, and Putin always planned to keep Ukraine as a vassal of Russia.  I suspect that he believed that the West didn't really care about Ukraine and was only arming it to piss him off.

[Berkut]

It's not just that Putin is an idiot for trying to take over Ukraine, it is that he is an idiot because he thinks taking over Ukraine makes any sense to begin with - that there is really some kind of USSR/NATO direct power struggle still going on that he needs to win, or at least fight to a draw.

A free and independent Ukraine did pose a risk to Putin though.

Putin and his propogandists can push the lie that democracy might be okay for the West, but that it's contrary to Russian/slavic culture that needs a firm leader.

But a country right on your doorstep that is free and prosperous and where everyone speaks Russian shows that to be a lie.

Yeah, but that just pushes back his idiocy one level - he is an idiot for thinking that he has to be an authoritarian then. 

I am not really talking about his motivation here, just his reasoning.