Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Jacob]

I don't know if Putin is stupid, but I don't think he's super bright or anything. He's come up in an environment where gangsterism backed by secret services is the winning strategy and he's done well there. Now he's applying the same strategy internationally and finding its limits.

[Solmyr]

Yeah, it's always felt kinda weird when people claimed Putin was playing 5D chess or something. He's never actually achieved all that much.

[Josquius]

I don't know if Putin is stupid, but I don't think he's super bright or anything. He's come up in an environment where gangsterism backed by secret services is the winning strategy and he's done well there. Now he's applying the same strategy internationally and finding its limits.

"Intelligence" is such a weird word and frequently misused.

To look at the shit Trump comes out with...my god. How can he even remember to breathe?
But...look at where he ended up. Sure sure, can't really compare him to me, he didn't exactly start from zero. But plenty of kids with rich dads were given millions and didn't end up becoming the biggest threat the US has ever faced. There's definitely some sort of 'intelligence' to him.

Putin will be similar. There's definitely an aspect of luck and being in the right place at the right time. A lot of guys kind of like Putin who never rose to power. But I do think theres more than luck at play for him managing to be amongst a small number who could have made it.

Of course, the skills to take over post-soviet Russia and the skills to be a successful leader of a 21st century country are quite different and the idea that they are the same can lead to some serious mis-steps, as current events show.

[Jacob]

Minor news:

Russia is saying they can repair the Nord Stream pipelines "if it makes sense." Probably this is an attempt to influence the upcoming EU sanctions discussions in a more favourable direction.

Also, Orban has apparently declared that "only Trump can ensure peace in Ukraine." Presumably because Trump will be willing to throw Ukraine under the bus and suck up to Putin.

[Jacob]

I don't know if Putin is stupid, but I don't think he's super bright or anything. He's come up in an environment where gangsterism backed by secret services is the winning strategy and he's done well there. Now he's applying the same strategy internationally and finding its limits.

"Intelligence" is such a weird word and frequently misused.

To look at the shit Trump comes out with...my god. How can he even remember to breathe?
But...look at where he ended up. Sure sure, can't really compare him to me, he didn't exactly start from zero. But plenty of kids with rich dads were given millions and didn't end up becoming the biggest threat the US has ever faced. There's definitely some sort of 'intelligence' to him.

Putin will be similar. There's definitely an aspect of luck and being in the right place at the right time. A lot of guys kind of like Putin who never rose to power. But I do think theres more than luck at play for him managing to be amongst a small number who could have made it.

I think we use the term "low cunning" when we want to acknowledge that someone seems to be making effective decisions, but we don't want to give them credit for being "intelligent."

[Barrister]

I don't know if Putin is stupid, but I don't think he's super bright or anything. He's come up in an environment where gangsterism backed by secret services is the winning strategy and he's done well there. Now he's applying the same strategy internationally and finding its limits.

"Intelligence" is such a weird word and frequently misused.

To look at the shit Trump comes out with...my god. How can he even remember to breathe?
But...look at where he ended up. Sure sure, can't really compare him to me, he didn't exactly start from zero. But plenty of kids with rich dads were given millions and didn't end up becoming the biggest threat the US has ever faced. There's definitely some sort of 'intelligence' to him.

Putin will be similar. There's definitely an aspect of luck and being in the right place at the right time. A lot of guys kind of like Putin who never rose to power. But I do think theres more than luck at play for him managing to be amongst a small number who could have made it.

Of course, the skills to take over post-soviet Russia and the skills to be a successful leader of a 21st century country are quite different and the idea that they are the same can lead to some serious mis-steps, as current events show.

OK, so because I don't understand Russian I really can't make any assessment on Putin's intelligence.

Trump though - he did graduate Wharton but was apparently a mediocre student.  And his speaking patterns have notably 'devolved', if you listen to an old 80s-era interview of him compared to today.  He also barely reads.  I doubt he'd do well on an IQ test.

But he does have political talents!  He knows what his base wants and he gives it to them.  He's utterly without shame - feeling free to lie, being constrained by no norms or laws.  And all of that can be powerful.

[Valmy]

He is very talented at being a celebrity and has made that work for him his entire life. It shouldn't have been a surprise he turned out to be a great politician despite being horrible at every other aspect you would want in a political leader.

He is the most dangerous person in the United States since Huey Long I think. Granted that is theoretical since Long got himself killed before he could have his 2016.

[alfred russel]

It's not just that Putin is an idiot for trying to take over Ukraine, it is that he is an idiot because he thinks taking over Ukraine makes any sense to begin with - that there is really some kind of USSR/NATO direct power struggle still going on that he needs to win, or at least fight to a draw.

A free and independent Ukraine did pose a risk to Putin though.

Putin and his propogandists can push the lie that democracy might be okay for the West, but that it's contrary to Russian/slavic culture that needs a firm leader.

But a country right on your doorstep that is free and prosperous and where everyone speaks Russian shows that to be a lie.

Yeah, but that just pushes back his idiocy one level - he is an idiot for thinking that he has to be an authoritarian then.

I am not really talking about his motivation here, just his reasoning.

He has lasted through I don't know how many presidents over 20 years and looted russia personally and along with his associates for probably billions of dollars. You couldn't have pulled that off without being authoritarian.

[grumbler]

"Intelligence" is such a weird word and frequently misused.

To look at the shit Trump comes out with...my god. How can he even remember to breathe?
But...look at where he ended up. Sure sure, can't really compare him to me, he didn't exactly start from zero. But plenty of kids with rich dads were given millions and didn't end up becoming the biggest threat the US has ever faced. There's definitely some sort of 'intelligence' to him.

OTOH, he is a guy who has frequently confessed in front of huge crowds that he is so stupid that he can't even flush a toilet in less than ten tries.  I'm trying to reconcile that with "some sort of intelligence."  "Intelligence" is such a weird word and frequently misused.

[Tamas]

He has charisma and and an air of self assured confidence, no doubt stemming from his immense stupidity and privileged upbringing.

Weak people are apparently drawn to sociopaths like him.

[Sheilbh]

He has charisma and and an air of self assured confidence, no doubt stemming from his immense stupidity and privileged upbringing.

Weak people are apparently drawn to sociopaths like him.

I often think of a bit from when Martin Amis read Trump's collected works:

It is thus exhaustively established that Trump has a superhuman tolerance for boredom. What are his other commercial strengths? Nerve; tenacity; patience; an unembarrassable pushiness (indulgently known as chutzpah); a shrewd aversion to staking his own money; the aforementioned readiness, at a pinch, to play the villain; the ability to be "a screamer when I want to be" (but not when he senses that "screaming would only scare them off"); and the determination to "fight when I feel I'm being screwed." Above all, perhaps, his antennae are very sensitive to weakness. Looking to buy an old hotel in Midtown, Trump rejects the Biltmore, the Barclay, and the Roosevelt as being "at least moderately successful," and goes instead for the "only one in real trouble," the Commodore, which he can pitch as "a loser hotel in a decaying neighborhood" and so flatten the price. Similarly, his long and apparently hopeless campaign to get Bonwit Teller, store and building, suddenly takes fire when he learns that its parent company has started "to experience very serious financial problems." And he gets Bonwit Teller. Perhaps that's the defining asset: a crocodilian nose for inert and preferably moribund prey.

Trump can sense when an entity is no longer strong enough or lithe enough to evade predation. He did it with that white elephant, the Grand Old Party, whose salaried employers never saw him coming, even when he was there, and whose ruins he now bestrides. The question is, Can he do it with American democracy?

[The Brain]

Trump is just a turd with daddy's money who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. He is incredibly stupid. Analyzing him is like analyzing a lottery winner to understand why they won.

[Valmy]

Well he has certainly put us in a very dire situation, having spent the past six years constantly talking about fraud and rigged elections (despite, you know, being President for four years when he could have done something about it, if it was true). His return to office is a very terrifying prospect.

[The Brain]

His stupidity is his greatest strength (after daddy's money). He is too stupid to be effectively controlled by anyone.

[frunk]

His stupidity is his greatest strength (after daddy's money). He is too stupid to be effectively controlled by anyone.

I think he can be effectively controlled by all sorts of people.  They just have to make sure they are the last person to talk to him.