Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Razgovory]

Is this another one of Malthus' cousins?

[Admiral Yi]

Youtube just hung up.  The cyberattack that accompanies the invasion? 

[Jacob]

Youtube just hung up.  The cyberattack that accompanies the invasion? 

There's going to be a lot of that going on, for sure.

Just read how a cyber attack was close to taking out a bunch of European windmills.

[The Brain]

How much is the West fucking up Russian systems?

[Jacob]

How much is the West fucking up Russian systems?

I'd expect not much. We're not (yet) in a state of hostility with Russia I don't think. But, you know, if things continue down this trajectory that may change.

[The Brain]

Something something Chicago way.

[HVC]

How much is the West fucking up Russian systems?

Strongly worded letters have been printed and awaiting delivery

[Sheilbh]

Re. other weird things if there is an invasion - it's really weird how many social media videos there are from Russians near the border just casually showing all different types of equipment and troops driving up to the border. I always would have thought you'd want to keep that kind of thing off social media before an attack. Maybe that's not actually the way it works, or maybe it's just impossible in the modern world to stop people filming it so why try

[Jacob]

Yeah, whatever happens and however this plays out it's definitely a mark of how things have changed leading up to a conflict.

[Admiral Yi]

I was thinking how Gulf War I was maybe the first CNN war and this could be the first social media war.

[Zanza]

It's good that there is so much information out there on both social media and from Western governments. Makes sure there is no repeat of the Little Green Men on Crimea as this time it is obvious who is the aggressor. Much harder to spin for the Russians. 

[Tamas]

On the topic of spinning, this just in:

The spokesperson of Russia's foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova, has posted this statement on her Facebook page.

February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day of failure of Western propaganda war. Embarrassed and destroyed without firing a shot.

Hopefully it's the first sign of them abandoning invasion plans.

[The Brain]

"chad West DESTROYS virgin Russia"

[Josquius]

So, headlines stating tensions are easing and markets recovering as a result?

Also theories that the whole thing was designed to embarrass the west and discredit us intelligence. Which seems a bit of a stretch, occams razor et al, but possible-especially if you include the possibility it wasn't Russias original plan but makes for a great way to draw a win from it anyway.

[Sheilbh]

Separately the Duma has called on Putin to recognise Lukhansk and Donetsk (it doesn't say what as) - I have seen some people suggest that may be what happens. Russia recognises them as autonomous republics and moves in military and logistical support.

But I think everything is still unclear. Totally agree with this thread:

Seva
@SevaUT
when the uncertain part of the crisis is over, whatever the outcome, you will see people saying "in retrospect it was inevitable that..." DO NOT trust those people
it is remarkably easy to construct plausible ex post narratives given the number of facts available to you
In retrospect it was inevitable that Putin would invade. This kind of military build-up wouldn't happen unless there was a plan to use it.  And clearly Putin wants to secure his legacy as the man who returned Ukraine to Russia.
In retrospect it was inevitable that Putin would not invade. He has already achieved his goals of restarting security talks and sending a strong message to Ukraine. Given the Western response, it had become clear an invasion would be too costly.
this is what e.h. carr meant when he said facts never speak for themselves, the historian speaks for them. and what goethe meant when he said every fact is already a theory