Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I have to say that even I was shocked at how much of a Potemkin country Russia turned out to be.  I knew it was corrupt, but the vast majority of authoritarian countries are corrupt.  I didn't realize just how deep the rot went.  Russia looks like the sick man of Eurasia now.

That didn't shock me. What shocked me was that Putin was ignorant of that fact. I thought he was bluffing and looking to get some concessions. I thought he was well aware if Russia actually went through with the invasion it would be a disaster.

I honestly thought Putin was a smart guy who was self-aware of Russia's deficiencies and getting all he could by bluster and bullying. Turns out he was a bit deluded.

I dunno. I think Putin did have some awareness of Russias failings. As much as the information being fed into him would be massaged at every level.

The thing is though he didn't expect a war. He did expect to just roll into Ukraine and the special military operation would be over quickly with minimal casualties

And honestly I don't think he was too far off on this. If zelensky had fled, if the seizure of the airport in kyiv had been pulled off, if there was no early western aid... Things could well have gone according to the Russian plan with a new puppet installed and events set in motion to eat some more territory officially.

His big miscalculation I think was in misjudging western unity and how much support would come Ukraines way.
 After Russian wins with trump and brexit and then the lucky break of covid and all that shit he thought the west would be disunited and more concerned with their own economies than a traditional Russian puppet being dragged back.

Misjudging zelenskys character and abilities was another key misjudgement of Putin. I don't think he took him seriously at all.

[Valmy]

Here's hoping, but I've always been a trump fatalist. I fear he's the Gracchi to the start of much worse things.

What he exposed was the failure of Reaganomics/third way/Neo-Liberalism economics. Wages have stagnated too long, the rich have gotten too rich, and populist rage is building. The 2008 era Economic Crisis was a blow that our society has not really recovered from.

The Democrats leaning into third way-ism is what set us up to take the fall for the failure of Right Wing economics. How ironic. This is also why you are seeing Biden suddenly taking a hard left turn on some of issues (though certainly not all), like increasingly rejecting free trade and supporting unions more. I think it is better late than never and Obama needed to do all of this 14 years ago but it is what it is. But we will see.

Sort of like how the widespread cynicism and distrust of traditional institutions have led to a golden age of fraud and grifterism. Cynicism, ironically, makes you stupid and somehow more gullible.

[Sheilbh]

I dunno. I think Putin did have some awareness of Russias failings. As much as the information being fed into him would be massaged at every level.

The thing is though he didn't expect a war. He did expect to just roll into Ukraine and the special military operation would be over quickly with minimal casualties

And honestly I don't think he was too far off on this. If zelensky had fled, if the seizure of the airport in kyiv had been pulled off, if there was no early western aid... Things could well have gone according to the Russian plan with a new puppet installed and events set in motion to eat some more territory officially.

His big miscalculation I think was in misjudging western unity and how much support would come Ukraines way.
 After Russian wins with trump and brexit and then the lucky break of covid and all that shit he thought the west would be disunited and more concerned with their own economies than a traditional Russian puppet being dragged back.

Misjudging zelenskys character and abilities was another key misjudgement of Putin. I don't think he took him seriously at all.

I think this is vastly overstating the importance of the West and Zelensky as an individual. Both have been important and have contributed hugely to Ukraine's current position - but I think they are secondary to the will to fight and resist in Ukraine. The popular mobilisation not outsiders or great men is, I think, key.

But I think your first point is right that Putin thought it would be easy based on 2014 and his view that Ukrainians were not a real nation. Since 2014, a cohesive, strong Ukrainian identity has been forged across Ukraine which didn't previously exist in that way, complete with Russia as a "constitutive other". I think that's the decisive fact - the willingness of Ukrainian soldiers and civil society to fight and resist for their independence. And Putin's crucial miscalculation.

[HVC]

Popular mobilization is more important than Zelensky, but I think you underplay the west. You can mobilize, but you have to arm the people.

[Josquius]

The west also had a moral effect on the Ukrainians. Showed they weren't alone. With nato support they stood a chance against Russia.

[Sheilbh]

They didn't have NATO support. On the day of the invasion the only countries shipping them weapons were, from memory, the UK, Canada, Sweden, Poland and the Dutch. The West caught up and has responded, I think, very well.

I don't think Ukraine can well or would have been as able to push back Russia without the Western aid it's received. I think they could certainly have stopped Russia from winning. Similarly I don't think it's all over for Ukraine if Trump wins and the US stops support (partly because Europe has vastly increase its support) - I think it would make it impossible for Ukraine to win, but I don't think it would mean they'd automatically lose either.

It's hugely important, as is Zelensky, but it is secondary to the transformaton of Ukrainian society, national identity and views of Russia since 2014. And I think the fact that it is the Ukrainians have done it so far is a really important fact and I think we should resist making it (either Putin's invasion or Ukraine's resistance) too much about ourselves. We were not the key factor or protagonist here.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I agree w/that analysis, a lot of Putin's likely calculation was much of Ukraine was not that dissimilar to Crimea--a place where once a strong Russian presence materialized most people would embrace it, and those who didn't wouldn't be willing to fight it.

But most of Ukraine was not, in fact, Crimea, and most of them were willing to fight and die to not be Crimea. The sheer size of Ukraine and its population, the industrial, military, political and diplomatic weakness of Russia, put on full display, makes the possibility of Putin's dreams of complete victory totally impossible now regardless of what America does. That presumes Putin really did have maximalist goals. I frankly think he did. He went for Kyiv with special forces and the thrust of his earliest invasion.

My guess is his game plan was topple the Kyiv regime, and revert most of Ukraine back to a puppet state with a Kremlin backed President. He would probably annex some of the east to create a legal permanent Russian corridor to Crimea.

It is clear he will never control all of Ukraine now by any reasonable estimate of what is going to happen.

A pro-Kremlin puppet President in Kyiv wouldn't even be viable now--unlike in the past when they were, because so much of Ukraine was pro-Russia, that is gone now.

[Zoupa]

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

The West has failed Ukraine. It will be catastrophic if a Republican gets into the White House. In other news Canada is set to cut 3 billion in defense budget and Slovaquia is about to elect a Putin fanboy. Not looking good.

A month later and I'm saddened to have been proven right....

[DGuller]

Cynicism, ironically, makes you stupid and somehow more gullible.

There is nothing ironic about it.  Cynicism is a way for stupid people to feel smart.  If you believe that everyone is a crook, you become incapable of recognizing and rewarding honest people.  Making people more cynical is one of the goals of propaganda campaigns.

[Admiral Yi]

There is nothing ironic about it.  Cynicism is a way for stupid people to feel smart.  If you believe that everyone is a crook, you become incapable of recognizing and rewarding honest people.  Making people more cynical is one of the goals of propaganda campaigns.

Nice.

[Sheilbh]

Sort of like how the widespread cynicism and distrust of traditional institutions have led to a golden age of fraud and grifterism. Cynicism, ironically, makes you stupid and somehow more gullible.

Yes it's a bit like the numerous studies that show the people who are most susceptible to "fake news" or disinformation etc are people with strong political views - and that graduates are more susceptible than non-graduates. It's confirmation bias that's the real risk with information, not non-graduates in a diner who don't really pay attention to politics 90% of the time - those people keep us safe.

[crazy canuck]

I am not buying the standstill is a Russian win thesis. Sure it's not a Ukrainian win either, but, cynically perhaps, a standstill is a Western world order win - an attempt of military conquest that turns into an endless quagmire and insane resource hog ruining the aggressor is an infinitely more desired outcome than a military conquest achieving its objective in terms of world stability.

At the outset of the war, I would've considered Russia quagmired in Ukraine a Russian loss. Whether that's true now, i don't know.

I would prefer a full Ukrainian victory, though.

I don't understand how a long war of attrition is a Russian defeat.  Ukraine is the one who only survives because the West is prepared to fund the war. 

[Valmy]

Its still a successful war of conquest.
Not a 100% war aims win, but 20% take a province or two for sure.

Yeah that was the biggest country on earth's problem that needed to be solved in blood: more land.

Meanwhile dozens of Russian cities rot into dust due to neglect.

[Valmy]

I don't understand how a long war of attrition is a Russian defeat.  Ukraine is the one who only survives because the West is prepared to fund the war. 

Russia was in miserable shape before this war. Let's just ignore the whole disintegrating countryside due to corruption and misdirection of resources. Look at the Demographic situation alone. Russia just got thousands of their young people killed and drove a million more into exile. Now look at what this does to their diplomatic situation and trade.

It just boggles the mind that any of you look at this situations and think it is good. Would you want Canada run this way? Granted it would certainly reduce the housing prices.

[HVC]

Would you want Canada run this way? Granted it would certainly reduce the housing prices.

so you're saying there's a chance.