Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I am not buying the standstill is a Russian win thesis. Sure it's not a Ukrainian win either, but, cynically perhaps, a standstill is a Western world order win - an attempt of military conquest that turns into an endless quagmire and insane resource hog ruining the aggressor is an infinitely more desired outcome than a military conquest achieving its objective in terms of world stability.

Its still a successful war of conquest.
Not a 100% war aims win, but 20% take a province or two for sure.

[Tamas]

Some counties literally in ruins, only kept because of the extensive line of fortifications maintained. It's an utter failure.

[Tamas]

The only success Putin can see from the current status quo is blocking Ukraine's western integration, which to be fair is a good thing for the Russian elites.

[Josquius]

I dunno. The Crimea grab certainly has value for Russia, especially with the offshore gas (oil?) finds.
Also to bare in mind nationalists don't necessarily see things in terms of actual tangible benefits. A burning Russian Donbass that is a drain on the Russian economy is still a Russian Donbass.
You can argue its a pyric victory which has sealed Russia's longterm doom... but for now things staying as they are would be a victory nonetheless.

[The Minsky Moment]

I am not buying the standstill is a Russian win thesis. Sure it's not a Ukrainian win either, but, cynically perhaps, a standstill is a Western world order win - an attempt of military conquest that turns into an endless quagmire and insane resource hog ruining the aggressor is an infinitely more desired outcome than a military conquest achieving its objective in terms of world stability.

This.
Russia lost the war in the first few weeks, when the schleppskrieg again Kyiv failed.

Putin has done more to unite the country and create sense of Ukranian nationhood than anyone else in history. This is Ukraine's great patriotic war.  The question of who ends of holding the burned out husks of Mariupol, etc. is an important one.   But not determinative of the ultimate result.

Putin's goal was to bring Ukraine by force back into the Great Russian fold.  He not only failed, he guaranteed deep emnity from Ukrainians for the next two generations.

[The Minsky Moment]

The other piece is that in Janaury 2022, Russia was considered by many to be a great power, with the second strongest land forces in the world.  They are now recognized for what they are: a structurally flawed regional power with a large but decaying aresenal of nuclear weapons, relying on crude tactics, throwing bodies around, and going cap-in-hand to fellow pariahs like Iran and North Korea. 

[DGuller]

I have to say that even I was shocked at how much of a Potemkin country Russia turned out to be.  I knew it was corrupt, but the vast majority of authoritarian countries are corrupt.  I didn't realize just how deep the rot went.  Russia looks like the sick man of Eurasia now.

[Jacob]

I am not buying the standstill is a Russian win thesis. Sure it's not a Ukrainian win either, but, cynically perhaps, a standstill is a Western world order win - an attempt of military conquest that turns into an endless quagmire and insane resource hog ruining the aggressor is an infinitely more desired outcome than a military conquest achieving its objective in terms of world stability.

At the outset of the war, I would've considered Russia quagmired in Ukraine a Russian loss. Whether that's true now, i don't know.

I would prefer a full Ukrainian victory, though.

[PJL]

Personally I would call it a victory if the Ukrainians drove back the Russians back to their pre Feb 2022 lines, or at least roughly equivalent to that. Anything less would seem like a failure.

[frunk]

I think Russia would pitch a stalemate as a win, because it's the best they can hope for at this point.

In actuality the whole adventure has been a horrible loss for Russia, it's just a question of who else loses with them.

[Sheilbh]

At the outset of the war, I would've considered Russia quagmired in Ukraine a Russian loss. Whether that's true now, i don't know.

I would prefere a full Ukrainian victory, though.

I think that's true.

My view is Putin's war was because he wanted to cement his place as a Peter the Great style leader restoring Russian power and grandeur, and it was based on a peculiar and wildly inaccurate reading/understanding of Ukraine and Ukrainians. Based on those day one objectives, Russia has lost. But I think it lost within the first few months.

What it's new goals are, I'm less sure of but I think it is at least the oblasts that have been recognised as part of the Russian Federation. On that measure, Russia has lost. I don't think a stalemate with current levels of casualties and resources can be seen as a win for Russia either.

Having said that I don't think Ukraine has won and I think the counteroffensive has been a strategic failure - if you look at the map and said at June this would be the result five months later, I think that would be recognised. Doesn't mean Ukraine aren't racking up other wins - I think basically consigning the Black Sea Fleet to base is not nothing - or that it's decisive for the war. The point around Russian manpower is true to a point - but everything I've read indicates that Ukraine think they can keep up some reasonable tempo over the winter and it's a while before Russia can mobilise a new tranche of recruits without emergency measures (which they're unlikely to do). I also think there is more brittleness in a side fighting a war of conquest v a side fighting a war of national liberation/independence - so I don't think this determines what the next few months or next year will look like.

I think in the American press from "administration sources" there have been some unhelpful noises off and expectations earlier in the summer. I think that's largely quieted now. Hopefully it won't affect US support in the short-term (although, as I mentioned before, compared to the first months of the conflict Europe has stepped up and is providing a huge amount of aid now).

[Valmy]

I have to say that even I was shocked at how much of a Potemkin country Russia turned out to be.  I knew it was corrupt, but the vast majority of authoritarian countries are corrupt.  I didn't realize just how deep the rot went.  Russia looks like the sick man of Eurasia now.

That didn't shock me. What shocked me was that Putin was ignorant of that fact. I thought he was bluffing and looking to get some concessions. I thought he was well aware if Russia actually went through with the invasion it would be a disaster.

I honestly thought Putin was a smart guy who was self-aware of Russia's deficiencies and getting all he could by bluster and bullying. Turns out he was a bit deluded.

[HVC]

Whether or not he's dumber then people thought or if he just assumed that Ukraine was just as corrupt I don't think he expected the amount of support the world gave. Hopefully Ukraine can keep up before the republicans come into office and that support starts to dry up.

[Valmy]

Hopefully Ukraine can keep up before the republicans come into office and that support starts to dry up.

We're not beaten yet.

Though I sure hope Biden is careful with this Israel business.

[HVC]

Here's hoping, but I've always been a trump fatalist. I fear he's the Gracchi to the start of much worse things.