Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, can I trouble you for a link to this? I'd like to share it.

Link to the thread:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498025819054264328?s=20&t=m0yzzGns0YuSadNxbiF8RA

And the article:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

Realistically though, if you want to find a way out of this that isn't too bad and without Putin, the people that have been with Putin up until now, either as senior military leaders or government officials, need to see a future for themselves in some future state. The earlier meme that was going around "can we just skip to the part where Putin shoots himself in his bunker" as a Hitler / WWII reference isn't really what anyone should want as Hitler fought to the bitter end--putting aside that Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons it wasn't a great experience.

Yeah - I think that's true. At the minute I think personally sanctioning Putin gives a clear sign that even if they win in Ukraine there will be huge challenges for them. Which maybe opens a path.

In terms of memes, I prefer this one

However this ends, the sheer incompetence of the Russian military in the first days of the war just seems so unfathomable to me, especially given that in retrospect we can be sure they were planning to go to war for at least three months. 

I think since at least April - there was a huge exercise of something like 50,000 troops in Crimea and on the Eastern border which, in retrospect, was probably readiness. But as you say they had about 150,000 troops on the border for three months.

One thing I wonder is if the actual decision to invade was kept very tight with Putin and his inner circle until pretty late - just thinking about how uncomfortable the security council meeting was. If they were like the rest of us looking at the troops and syaing this can only mean one thing, while any sort of common sense would mean the opposite.

Apparently Russia's Central Bank raised the borrowing rate from 9.5% to 20%.

Not a sign of massive health, I'd say....

No. And a hell of a day from a man who's big appeal to Russians was stabilising then growing the economy after the chaos of the 90s.

There's also something surreal in these sanction, that economic shock, frozen airspace etc - while none of the sanctions have yet touched hydro-carbons. I think there's been one attack on a pipeline but the oil and gas are still flowing through a wartorn country and still being paid by countries imposing these swingeing sanctions, to a country raising its nuclear posture. It's extraordinary in a way.

It was true 

Incredible

My Indian colleague says what videos he saw of Indians being denied refuge were fake/staged and disseminated by pro-Russian circles in India.

India and Russia have been pretty close for decades though - and India's rarely felt the downside/risk of being close to Russia. The Soviet Union was opposed to China and the US (backing Pakistan), so was a useful pole for India's relations. Since then they've stayed very close - they talk about a special relationship, I think India's Russia's biggest arms customer and I think they're involved in India's big nuclear power program.

I'd be pretty astonished if the sympathy was the other way round. Just did a quick search and there's an old BBC World Service poll with 85% of Indians considering Russia a "friend".

[Josquius]

On India.... An Indian friend who I've long suspected has fascy leanings though hoped might just be an ignorant libertarian... Is sharing "why this is all the west's fault" stuff

Wonder how normal this is there....


Also a fun thing I just heard - porn hub has blocked Russian IPs with a Ukraine flag shown in the message explaining why.

[HVC]

Pornhub had gone to far. Porn belongs to the masses!

[HVC]

There's also something surreal in these sanction, that economic shock, frozen airspace etc - while none of the sanctions have yet touched hydro-carbons. I think there's been one attack on a pipeline but the oil and gas are still flowing through a wartorn country and still being paid by countries imposing these swingeing sanctions, to a country raising its nuclear posture. It's extraordinary in a way.

And buying in increasing volume. Europe really has to step away from Russian gas. Guess Norway can't provide enough. That leaves what, the US? Or move to alternative resources. More nuclear power. Brain will show you how.

[Syt]

Bellingcat article on the use of cluster munitions in civilian areas: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/

[The Larch]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

The EU is expecting Ukraine's application to join the European Union "imminently" and officials in Brussels said "this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European commission".

Earlier today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had made a video address in which he appealed to the European union for urgent accession to the 27-member bloc for the country under special procedures.

For Ukraine to become an EU member state it will go through a pre-accession period of varying length, during which the candidate country adapts its institutions, standards and infrastructure to enable it to meet its obligations as a member state.

The accession process involves compliance with the accession criteria including adoption and implementation of the acquis.

Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are currently candidate countries.

[Syt]

Also, seems Russian troops are relying on civilian means of communication? https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1498233574834716674

[HVC]

What's the rush? Does EU status help the war in some way?

[Syt]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

The EU is expecting Ukraine's application to join the European Union "imminently" and officials in Brussels said "this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European commission".

Earlier today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had made a video address in which he appealed to the European union for urgent accession to the 27-member bloc for the country under special procedures.

For Ukraine to become an EU member state it will go through a pre-accession period of varying length, during which the candidate country adapts its institutions, standards and infrastructure to enable it to meet its obligations as a member state.

The accession process involves compliance with the accession criteria including adoption and implementation of the acquis.

Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are currently candidate countries.

If I was a West Balkans country I would be really pissed

[Syt]

Twitter thread supposedly listening in on unencrypted Russian comms: https://twitter.com/MorozMichael/status/1498198444644651008

It's the Russian advance on East Prussia in 1914 all over again, isn't it?

[The Larch]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

If I was a West Balkans country I would be really pissed

Well, they should get invaded by Russia if it gets them ahead of the queue. 

Now seriously, I could see fast-tracking them to candidate status, but no way they'll be admitted in the middle of a war.

[The Larch]

Twitter thread supposedly listening in on unencrypted Russian comms: https://twitter.com/MorozMichael/status/1498198444644651008

It's the Russian advance on East Prussia in 1914 all over again, isn't it?

Now it's getting jammed with what I swear are pig noises

They may need to find another frequency

 

[Syt]

Russia blames Liz Truss for nuclear 'special alert'

Earlier, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace downplayed the nuclear "special alert" announced by Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the Russian president wanted to distract people from his forces' slower-than-expected progress in the invasion.

Wallace told the BBC: "We will not do anything to escalate in that area, we will not do anything to feed any miscalculation - we take it very, very seriously. But at the moment this is a battle of rhetoric that President Putin is deploying."

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

"There had been statements by various representatives at various levels about possible conflict situations and even collisions and clashes between Nato and the Russian Federation," said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin.

"We consider such statements absolutely unacceptable. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary."

It's not clear which comments by Truss the Russian government objects to, although on Sunday she said she said she would support individuals from the UK joining an international force to fight for Ukraine.

[Josquius]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

If I was a West Balkans country I would be really pissed

Well, they should get invaded by Russia if it gets them ahead of the queue. 

Now seriously, I could see fast-tracking them to candidate status, but no way they'll be admitted in the middle of a war.

Yeah, that's the key thing. Big difference between being an official candidate and not.
Annoyingly during the brexit ref a lot of people in the UK completely failed to understand quite what candidate status meant. Really fed the bollocks of turkey with its 50 year candidacy being about to join.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

If I was a West Balkans country I would be really pissed

Well, they should get invaded by Russia if it gets them ahead of the queue. 

Now seriously, I could see fast-tracking them to candidate status, but no way they'll be admitted in the middle of a war.

They might get fast-tracked tot candidacy, they'll be let in together with the rest of the balkans...
Just thinking loud