Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

Seeing lots of videos of Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson today. Any truth to that? Did Ukraine take back the city?

Yup.  All the Western media have reporters in the city.

[Valmy]

Well that is a great victory! I know it was a long time coming but most great victories are.

Now, does Ukraine control the dam?

[Tonitrus]

No, and it looks like the Russians did blow up enough of it to prevent its use as a river crossing (but apparently not enough for massive flooding).

[Valmy]

No, and it looks like the Russians did blow up enough of it to prevent its use as a river crossing (but apparently not enough for massive flooding).

Fuck.

Ah well. The war drags on but another big victory for the Ukrainian forces.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting infographic from the NYT:


Breakdown is a little striking too. Basically Russia is importing less from everyone, except for Turkey and China. Turkish imports to Russia have increased by 113% and China's by 24%. But everyone else has fallen from -13% for Brazil to -84% from the US.

In terms of Russian exports it's more mixed, because the value of Russia's exports (raw materials) have increased because of the war. So the only countries who are - in dollar terms - importing less from Russia are Korea, Sweden, the UK and the US. Exports (in dollar terms) have increased everywhere ese from 38% to Germany to 430% to India. Though Russia may have to sell its resources at a discount, the general market price has increased which slightly counters that.

It seems like the sanctions will have a weird effect and honestly it sounds a little like the 70s/Brezhnev era - life for Russians will get worse as they can't import things. Obviously this will have a bigger impact on the middle class than poor Russians who I imagine weren't consuming very many foreign goods. But for middle class Russians they'll either need to stop having foreign luxuries or have Russian substitutes. However raw material (especially energy) prices are high enough to help sustain the state and fund this war - and, I think, again reinforces the need to spend more on energy transition.

[Admiral Yi]

USA USA!

I've seen a bunch of Kherson liberation videos and I've been struck by the absence of evidence of heavy fighting.

[Zanza]

German statistics office says imports from Russia are down 37% by value and 67% by volume in September YOY, so by now the sanctions are biting.

[Sheilbh]

German statistics office says imports from Russia are down 37% by value and 67% by volume in September YOY, so by now the sanctions are biting.

Yeah - looking at the NYT article it doesn't capture direction of travel. So it's comparing 2017-21 monthly averages v monthly average post-invasion.

On direction of travel they have another (but too small to be useful) infographic - on that chart most countries are trending down except for China and India with a couple of surprising ones that seem to be flatlining or trending up like Belgium

[celedhring]

Spain's uptick in trade is mostly due to Russian LNG gas.

[Sheilbh]

Zelensky visiting Kherson - including for the official flag-raising:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1592110611496071168?s=20&t=wwuePHTHXlJfL4q7_75V_g

[Legbiter]

The war drags on but another big victory for the Ukrainian forces

Yeah. But the Ukrainians have their pick of which area to liberate next and there's not a goddamn thing the Russians can do to alter their losing trajectory at this point. The conscript meat is depleting rapidly.

[barkdreg]

Increased import from Russia to Belgium is easy to explain
Trade from Russia to Belgium is mostly oil, coal an diamonds. Oil and coal have a phase out before being sanctioned, diamonds are not being sanctioned. All three products had a big increase in price.

In a few months only diamonds will still be traded.

[Legbiter]

The Russians stole a raccoon from a Kherson zoo before retreating.    And Ukrainian social media demands it's return. 

[Jacob]

Regarding the Wagner execution video, do we know how / why the victim ended up in Russian hands again?

I'm pretty sure I watched the video of him from Ukraine, where he described how he'd taken the Wagner deal, then basically walked to the Ukrainian lines and surrendered a few days after arriving. He also talked some trash about Putin, and offered to find on the Ukrainian side (if it's the guy I think it is).

I haven't watched the execution video (and won't), but the face in the widely circulated still looks very similar IMO. The things I've read say that he was exchanged to Russia, and that's how he ended up in Wagner's hands. Does anyone know how someone who apparently was going to fight for Ukraine ended up being handed over to Russia?

[Tonitrus]

Already seeing some reports of Ukrainian bridgeheads across the Dnipro (including that big spit of land to the south of Kherson).