Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I think Russia would happily negotiate at this point - but that they would expect to keep some or all of the territory they have under control.  And would probably expect some sanctions relief.  None of which I expect Ukraine would even listen to.

Agreed but I think they'll try to position it and possibly have some misleading ideas like referendums, to try and present it to the world as being reasonable and looking for peace v Ukrainian intransigence.

[Barrister]

Yeah, I can't see how there's a positive resolution for Russia at this point. I guess they'll amass their poor conscripts, give them shit equipment, and throw them at something in the Spring, hoping to change the narrative. But then what?

I mean they are just withdrawing from a region they just triumphantly "annexed" what? One month ago?

Russian best case scenario goes something like this:

-continue throwing raw mobiks into the meat grinder to slow/stop Ukrainian advance
-meanwhile reconstitute some more trained forces in rear
-go on offensive in spring with fresh (and trained) troops
-count on western nations to grow tired
-Russian advances, plus slow down in western support for Ukraine, forces a peace deal leaving Russia with some amount of new territory which gets sold as a win back home

[Barrister]

I think Russia would happily negotiate at this point - but that they would expect to keep some or all of the territory they have under control.  And would probably expect some sanctions relief.  None of which I expect Ukraine would even listen to.

Agreed but I think they'll try to position it and possibly have some misleading ideas like referendums, to try and present it to the world as being reasonable and looking for peace v Ukrainian intransigence.

Maybe.  But I think most know that after the massive human displacement of the war the winner of any referendum will be entirely determined by who is allowed to vote.

[grumbler]

Russian best case scenario goes something like this:

-continue throwing raw mobiks into the meat grinder to slow/stop Ukrainian advance
-meanwhile reconstitute some more trained forces in rear
-go on offensive in spring with fresh (and trained) troops
-count on western nations to grow tired
-Russian advances, plus slow down in western support for Ukraine, forces a peace deal leaving Russia with some amount of new territory which gets sold as a win back home

Maybe, but that begs the question of whether there are any sources of fresh forces to train for a Spring offensive.

[Tamas]

I am fairly convinced their plan is to somehow survive the winter, replace their frontline troops everywhere with conscripts and amass the freed-up regulars for a spring offensive, then make peace getting the territories they have "annexed". I mean no way it is going to work out, but what else they have to gamble on?

[Zanza]

So once Russia withdrew from Kherson, there is little reason to keep many Ukrainian forces there as Russia would not be able to cross the river again. I wonder whether the active front will then shift east to the area between Zaporizhzhia and Donezk to break through to the coast there. That's what I would try next as an armchair general. 

[Josquius]

Hearing about the Russian human wave attacks and the Ukrainian reaction it really does sound like they're going for Zapp Branigan tactics of depressing your enemy so much at all the pointless slaughter they're forced to do of regular people just like them.

So once Russia withdrew from Kherson, there is little reason to keep many Ukrainian forces there as Russia would not be able to cross the river again. I wonder whether the active front will then shift east to the area between Zaporizhzhia and Donezk to break through to the coast there. That's what I would try next as an armchair general. 

On the surface definitely so. But then Russia knows this as well.
How capable is Ukraine of making a crossing?
Strikes me there'd be a lot of bluff from both sides to try and keep as many of the oppositions forces there whilst redirecting yours.

[Barrister]

Russian best case scenario goes something like this:

-continue throwing raw mobiks into the meat grinder to slow/stop Ukrainian advance
-meanwhile reconstitute some more trained forces in rear
-go on offensive in spring with fresh (and trained) troops
-count on western nations to grow tired
-Russian advances, plus slow down in western support for Ukraine, forces a peace deal leaving Russia with some amount of new territory which gets sold as a win back home

Maybe, but that begs the question of whether there are any sources of fresh forces to train for a Spring offensive.

I'm thinking/assuming they aren't throwing all 300,000 mobiks into the front line with no training.

But then again:

[Zanza]

The latest bit of equipment Germany promised looks cool - a minesweeper:

[Zanza]

So once Russia withdrew from Kherson, there is little reason to keep many Ukrainian forces there as Russia would not be able to cross the river again. I wonder whether the active front will then shift east to the area between Zaporizhzhia and Donezk to break through to the coast there. That's what I would try next as an armchair general. 

On the surface definitely so. But then Russia knows this as well.
How capable is Ukraine of making a crossing?
Strikes me there'd be a lot of bluff from both sides to try and keep as many of the oppositions forces there whilst redirecting yours.

Crossing what? There is no big body of water east of Zaporizhzhia.

[Barrister]

So once Russia withdrew from Kherson, there is little reason to keep many Ukrainian forces there as Russia would not be able to cross the river again. I wonder whether the active front will then shift east to the area between Zaporizhzhia and Donezk to break through to the coast there. That's what I would try next as an armchair general. 

On the surface definitely so. But then Russia knows this as well.
How capable is Ukraine of making a crossing?
Strikes me there'd be a lot of bluff from both sides to try and keep as many of the oppositions forces there whilst redirecting yours.

The big question is whether Russia will blow the dam.  Doing so would greatly widen the river (but also cut off Crimea from water again).

[Josquius]

So once Russia withdrew from Kherson, there is little reason to keep many Ukrainian forces there as Russia would not be able to cross the river again. I wonder whether the active front will then shift east to the area between Zaporizhzhia and Donezk to break through to the coast there. That's what I would try next as an armchair general. 

On the surface definitely so. But then Russia knows this as well.
How capable is Ukraine of making a crossing?
Strikes me there'd be a lot of bluff from both sides to try and keep as many of the oppositions forces there whilst redirecting yours.

Crossing what? There is no big body of water east of Zaporizhzhia.

On the Kherson/Crimea front I mean.

[Zanza]

I don't think either side has the capability to cross the Dnipro River against an opposing force. The Soviets barely did in 1943 - and they had 2.5 million men.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Dnieper

[Sheilbh]

Also - and I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about military stuff - it feels like trying to cut the land bridge would be more of a priority?

[Josquius]

Also - and I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about military stuff - it feels like trying to cut the land bridge would be more of a priority?

Purely from a strategy game perspective I guess it depends on how strong you are.

Taking the otherwise inaccessible blocked off area is "safer" and tightens your front whilst yeah, cutting the enemy off by striking through the middle makes it easier to later get that bit.

I believe crimea is quite mountainous? - that would point towards sticking to the plains being safer.

As said though just as much as where each side ultimately attacks is the intelligence and disinformation game that Ukraine smashed Russia with when they retook the NE.