Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[crazy canuck]

Because of the quickly unfolding economic turmoil, to which all the military losses (plus the cultural/sport ones) will be added, I think Putin will very soon (if not already) will find himself in the situation of the WW1 belligerents: simply too much have been spent in this effort to just say "well ok fine let's go back to how things were". He'd hung on a lamppost if he did that. So from his point of view there's only potential upside to further escalation.

Yes, and how does he change the narrative from "we are saving the Ukrainians from Nazis" to "Mission accomplished we can all go home and be friends again"

[The Minsky Moment]

What's the rush? Does EU status help the war in some way?

Sure - think how many Russian troops can be ensnarled at the border filling out those fiendishly complex EU customs declarations, not to mention how many supply columns could be delayed for having the wrong color passport. If only the Russians used Imperial measurements; that could stop the entire invasion in its tracks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't really see Putin losing power. He has built the entirety of the Russian elite around loyalist toadies, there is not really a viable vector for a power coup from those sort. The only realistic way Putin could lose power would be mass revolt by the Russian people. We're talking very large scale demonstrations across all of Russia, hundreds of thousands per city, in which the Russian military would likely be unwilling to use lethal force.

Putin has typically been insulated from that risk because most of the popular resistance to his regime is centered in educated cosmopolitan enclaves of St. Petersburg and Moscow among middle class Russians, but most of the rest of the country has always supported his brand of chest-thumping nationalism. That would have to change not just to the point the rest of the country stopped supporting him, but to the point they'd be willing to march against him. Not a minor thing.

[Habbaku]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

A fun read into why the Russians don't seem to be using all they could in the air. Or anywhere near it.

[Syt]

Part of me is wondering if the US announcing the invasion would happen 16th Feb put Putin's plans into such disarray?

How much supplies would another week in ready position eat up for the Russians? Not much ammo, I would assume. But fuel? Food?

[HVC]

I don't really see Putin losing power. He has built the entirety of the Russian elite around loyalist toadies, there is not really a viable vector for a power coup from those sort. The only realistic way Putin could lose power would be mass revolt by the Russian people. We're talking very large scale demonstrations across all of Russia, hundreds of thousands per city, in which the Russian military would likely be unwilling to use lethal force.

Putin has typically been insulated from that risk because most of the popular resistance to his regime is centered in educated cosmopolitan enclaves of St. Petersburg and Moscow among middle class Russians, but most of the rest of the country has always supported his brand of chest-thumping nationalism. That would have to change not just to the point the rest of the country stopped supporting him, but to the point they'd be willing to march against him. Not a minor thing.

Once they can't afford food their love for Putin might wane.  Though I agree with you it's unlikely a popular uprising will occur. Best we can hope for is he trips and falls out a window.

As for a Putin off-ramp, getting rid of Zelenskyy might provide him that.  Gets to make denazification claims, then can pull out. Not ideal, but better then losing the war (for internal consumption anyway). Assuming his army doesn't start doing better that is.

[Sheilbh]

Putin has typically been insulated from that risk because most of the popular resistance to his regime is centered in educated cosmopolitan enclaves of St. Petersburg and Moscow among middle class Russians, but most of the rest of the country has always supported his brand of chest-thumping nationalism. That would have to change not just to the point the rest of the country stopped supporting him, but to the point they'd be willing to march against him. Not a minor thing.

No. But all the reporters I see in Russia are reporting fairly deep unease about this war - as I say I think Putin is right on their being a fellowship and brotherly feeling (or at least there was) I'm just not sure it's going in the direction he wanted.

Russia has throttled access to Facebook and Twitter; the Telegram CEO had hinted at introducing some censorship (to enormous pushback from Russians as the only source of non-censored information) - it suggests to me that Putin is losing the information war at home just as much as he is internationally. From Russian language commentators it seems that Ukrainian-sympathetic content is absolutely flooding Telegram. Every dodgy social media video we have seen has come from there and there's many we haven't and it is a shared social media space of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia.

Add into that a big economic shock from a guy who's great achievement and pitch had been stability after the 90s. We're nowhere near there yet but I think there are the pieces you need for unrest. Especially if in the background you have growing number of MIA young men.

I still think the palace coup is more likely and it's not likely, but probably more than it has been at any point in Putin's reign. I take your point on elites but it's why I wonder if the military/defence ministry would be the key, not that it would be a military coup but basically that there is an independent institutional base there, their current boss is a political fixer and surviver and they are most exposed if this goes right (or even if it "succeeds" but Putin needs scapegoats). Plus it might be nice to get former Red Army men into all of those sinecures occupied by former KGB men. So I wonder if they're scoping out/looking for alternatives?

[HVC]

What's the rush? Does EU status help the war in some way?

Sure - think how many Russian troops can be ensnarled at the border filling out those fiendishly complex EU customs declarations, not to mention how many supply columns could be delayed for having the wrong color passport. If only the Russians used Imperial measurements; that could stop the entire invasion in its tracks.

Damn bureaucrats, ruin everything 

[Tamas]

Part of me is wondering if the US announcing the invasion would happen 16th Feb put Putin's plans into such disarray?

How much supplies would another week in ready position eat up for the Russians? Not much ammo, I would assume. But fuel? Food?

Good point.

[HVC]

Citibank has 5.4 billion exposure to Russian assets. Link also mentions 8.2 billion in third party exposure, but not sure if that's in addition to or including the 5.4.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/citigroup-flags-dollar54-billion-exposure-to-russian-assets/ar-AAUpxZB?li=AAggNb9

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/

Germany aims to get 100% of energy from renewable sources by 2035

BERLIN, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Germany aims to fulfil all its electricity needs with supplies from renewable sources by 2035, compared to its previous target to abandon fossil fuels "well before 2040," according to a government draft paper obtained by Reuters on Monday.

Europe's top economy has been under pressure from other Western nations to become less dependent on Russian gas, but its plans to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2030 and to shut its nuclear power plants by end-2022 have left it with few options. read more

Economy Minister Robert Habeck has described the accelerated capacity expansion for renewable energy as a key element in making the country less dependent on Russian fossil fuel supplies. read more

According to the paper, the corresponding amendment to the country's Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) is ready and the share of wind or solar power should reach 80% by 2030.

By then, Germany's onshore wind energy capacity should double to up to 110 gigawatts (GW), offshore wind energy should reach 30 GW - arithmetically the capacity of 10 nuclear plants - and solar energy would more than triple to 200 GW, the paper showed.

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has referred to renewable electricity sources as "the energy of freedom".

[Richard Hakluyt]

All footie with Russia and Russian clubs suspended :

https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/news/0272-148df1faf082-6e50b5ea1f84-1000--fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-com/

But does that include Chelsea    ?

[HVC]

All footie with Russia and Russian clubs suspended :

https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/news/0272-148df1faf082-6e50b5ea1f84-1000--fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-com/

But does that include Chelsea    ?

If you start banning clubs owned by dubious men from dubious countries then the premier league is going to get a whole lot smaller


But seriously how has he not been sanctioned?

[The Larch]

Part of me is wondering if the US announcing the invasion would happen 16th Feb put Putin's plans into such disarray?

How much supplies would another week in ready position eat up for the Russians? Not much ammo, I would assume. But fuel? Food?

Somebody (was it Berkut? Can't remember atm) also said that keeping the troops in constant readyness also hurts their maintenance levels, as checks and repairs have to be defered, so maybe that's also why so many of their vehicles are breaking down.

[Jacob]

Because of the quickly unfolding economic turmoil, to which all the military losses (plus the cultural/sport ones) will be added, I think Putin will very soon (if not already) will find himself in the situation of the WW1 belligerents: simply too much have been spent in this effort to just say "well ok fine let's go back to how things were". He'd hung on a lamppost if he did that. So from his point of view there's only potential upside to further escalation.

I don't think I'd phrase it as "only potential upside to further escalation." Rather I think that there's a downside to further escalation (unsustainable costs), but that they dwarf the potential downside to deescalation (massive loss of face, resulting in the end of Putin's career and quite possibly his life).