Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1569431072202522627

Governor of Bilhorod/Belgorod urging citizens of two communities to evacuate.  Two communities just across the border within the Russian Federation.

[Barrister]

Should Ukraine advance into Russia proper?

In a "normal" war capturing enemy territory is expected as part of trying to drive your enemy to the peace table if nothing else.  But when Russia has nuclear weapons, and the West has put restrictions on the use of many of Ukraine's weapons?

[Jacob]

Should Ukraine advance into Russia proper?

In a "normal" war capturing enemy territory is expected as part of trying to drive your enemy to the peace table if nothing else.  But when Russia has nuclear weapons, and the West has put restrictions on the use of many of Ukraine's weapons?

Were I in charge I'd say that Ukraine should feel free to strike military installations and logistical infrastructure on Russian soil (using non-Western armaments until and agreement is reached). I similar think that conducting special forces raids et. al. is fine. But I'd avoid trying to take and hold ground.

However, I'm not in charge and frankly am likely to support whatever Ukraine decides to do. So far their judgement has been pretty damn sound, and they obviously have better information than I do.

[DGuller]

Not a fan of all this Bilhorod business.  It's Belgorod, a city in Russia, a country that speaks Russian and uses Russian names for cities.  Calling it by a Ukrainian name signals aggressive intentions towards undisputed Russian territory, which I don't think is the message Ukraine is interested in sending.

[The Brain]

I saw a retired US general getting a bit carried away during an interview and start talking about US "war aims".

[Admiral Yi]

Should Ukraine advance into Russia proper?

In a "normal" war capturing enemy territory is expected as part of trying to drive your enemy to the peace table if nothing else.  But when Russia has nuclear weapons, and the West has put restrictions on the use of many of Ukraine's weapons?

No.

That would create all the logistical and PR headaches of administering non-Ukrainian civilian population.  Could be used by Putin to stoke up fears of "NATO invasion of the Motherland."

Cross border raids to zap air bases, ammo dumps, etc. would be lovely.

[Josquius]

A proper invasion of Russia is off of course.
But I do imagine around the border there will be some places where the ideal defensive spot lies on the Russian side.
It seems a bit weird to just stop at the border and refuse to cross at all.

There is talk of Russian volunteers for Ukraine and other opposition in Russia. I wonder whether taking control of territory near Ukraine might be a future first step for them in overthrowing Putin. Way off where we are now though

[DGuller]

Looks like Azerbaijan sees the writing on the wall for Russia, and is not wasting any time laying waste to Armenia.

[Legbiter]

Not a fan of all this Bilhorod business.  It's Belgorod, a city in Russia, a country that speaks Russian and uses Russian names for cities.  Calling it by a Ukrainian name signals aggressive intentions towards undisputed Russian territory, which I don't think is the message Ukraine is interested in sending.

No danger of that anytime soon.

But just imagine the vatnik screeching if the Ukrainians liberated a Russian oblast and formed a people's republic there...  

Hopefully they'll get the chance with Crimea.

[Tamas]

Fucking Azerbaijan. I guess Greece needs to keep tensions high lest Turkey decides to join in.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It'll be interesting to see how Biden responds to Azerbaijan/Armenia. It has always been a weird issue there because the U.S. has a powerful Armenian-American lobby, who actually were able to statutorily block U.S. assistance funding to Azerbaijan for most of the 1990s. After 9/11 this was waived, and Bush and subsequent Presidents have given significant funding and assistance to Azerbaijan because they were very good allies in the Global War on Terror and specifically Afghanistan, a large portion of U.S. logistical supply during our active combat phases in Afghanistan used Azerbaijan as a through country for storage / shipment. Azerbaijan also provided important intelligence on Islamist groups as well.

Armenia on the other hand, is Christian, and has a powerful lobby of both Armenian Americans and more importantly conservative Christian groups who like to talk about Armenians as a "threatened Christian community" (which they are, to some degree.) Muddying the water is our NATO ally Turkey is closely aligned with Azerbaijan, and our traditional enemy Russia is closely aligned with Armenia.

[Valmy]

America would never abandon the Kardashians to their fate.

Yeah the situation with Armenia is an odd one. Americans are certainly more prone to support Armenia despite the geopolitical problems this causes us.

[Valmy]

Should Ukraine advance into Russia proper?

In a "normal" war capturing enemy territory is expected as part of trying to drive your enemy to the peace table if nothing else.  But when Russia has nuclear weapons, and the West has put restrictions on the use of many of Ukraine's weapons?

I would avoid doing anything that reverses Russian morale and leads to some kind of patriotic response. Sure maybe strike some military targets in Russia but doing anything that results in dead Russian civilians or occupying Russian territory I think would be very counter-productive.

Though obviously this is a case by case basis. If moving into Russia temporarily would somehow help Ukraine liberate the Donbas, Crimea, or the other occupied territories it might be worth it.

[Admiral Yi]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

[Josquius]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

Crimea maybe.
But the Donbass have been through hell this past decade. I can't imagine pro Russian sentiment remains too strong outside of the most ignorant of old git.