Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

Putin has announced a 36 hour ceasefire for Christmas (the Orthodox one).

Expect the biggest attack of the war tonight?

The ceasefire is meant to start tomorrow at noon. 

[The Brain]

A unilateral ceasefire?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ukrainians killing about 700 Russian soldiers with HIMARS strikes per day since Christmas because the mobiks are all very concentrated into warm housing. Putin's going to have to mobilize more meat soon. 

there's rumours that he'll go to full mobilisation soon. Iirc, they've been mentioned here too, or at least in media linked in this thread

[Barrister]

Interesting programme on BBC 2 last night. Ukraine the people's war.
Reporter embedded with a Ukrainian unit in the run up to the kherson offensive.
Amazing how amateur and under armed they are - which really highlights how Awful the Russians must be.
Much of the episode revolves around trying to mortar a Russian position and failing each time.

So I started listening to a BBC podcast on the Ukraine war, and yesterday's episode interviewed the filmmaker of that show.

Important to remember that it was filmed last summer.  The immediate Russian rush on Kiyev was over, but the Russians were still advancing and many western military systems hadn't arrived yet (like HIMARS).

[Legbiter]

A unilateral ceasefire?

Cynical stunt. Doubt the Ukrainians just stop fighting. 

[Tamas]

As I have seen a commenter put it "It's very cool that Putin not only gets to attack whoever he wants, but also gets to tell them when they are allowed to shoot back".

[Valmy]

Yeah if Putin wants a cease fire he can withdraw from Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Typically I believe ceasefires are negotiated by mutual consent, otherwise they are simply "gestures of good will".

[Barrister]

There is a weird and cynical backstory to this though.

Most Ukrainians are orthodox (though after generations of communism it's not a deeply religious country).  There are the Ukrainian Catholic believers in the west who celebrate Christmas December 25, but they're a minority.

The Orthodox church in Ukraine has been under the authority of the Moscow Patriarch for several hundred years which was a source of some consternation, but in 2019 the Patriarch of Constantinople granted the Ukrainian Church it's independence.  The story of course is much more complicated than that in the way that only church politics can be.  Most diocese went over to the independent Ukrainian church (though some stayed under the Moscow Patriarchate).

So anyways - this year the independent Ukrainian Orthodox church gave it's believers the option to celebrate Christmas on December 25.  They didn't move away from the Julian calendar or anything, but it was a step in that direction.

So anyways - both the Church breaking away from Moscow, and moving the date of Christmas, were things Putin was not a fan of to say the least.  So you better believe that on December 25th the rockets and drones went flying into Ukraine.

So, an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire is just another sign of trying to show Russians how devout Putin is, unlike those Godless nazi Ukrainians.

[Sheilbh]

On Orthodox Christmas just discovered from a friend living in Athens that the Greeks celebrate Christmas on 25 December too, which I had no idea of. I thought all Orthodox was 6 January.

He asked a colleague why and was apparently told "because we're Greek"

[Duque de Bragança]

On Orthodox Christmas just discovered from a friend living in Athens that the Greeks celebrate Christmas on 25 December too, which I had no idea of. I thought all Orthodox was 6 January.

He asked a colleague why and was apparently told "because we're Greek"

Three kinds of Orthodox actually:
- those who go for full Gregorian calendar, not just for just immoveable feast such as Christmas, i.e Estonia and Finland mostly.
- those who go for the revised Julian Calendar, very close to the Gregorian calendar for immoveable feasts,
most other other Orthodox churches.
- those who stay by the full un-revised Julian Calendar i.e Russian (surprise, surprise!), Ukrainian (may change as) and Serbian churches (bonus point for having the revised Julian Calendar designed by a Serb).

[Barrister]

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-france-to-send-light-tanks/a-64281700

France to send light tanks to Ukraine.

OK, so it sounds like what France is sending aren't really tanks, but more like APCs.

Apparently US (Bradley) and Germany (Marder) are doing the same thing.

Every bit helps...

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1611052287954149377

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-france-to-send-light-tanks/a-64281700

France to send light tanks to Ukraine.

OK, so it sounds like what France is sending aren't really tanks, but more like APCs.

Apparently US (Bradley) and Germany (Marder) are doing the same thing.

Every bit helps...

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1611052287954149377

France is indeed sending (light) armoured fighting vehicles, AMX-10 RCs (roues-canon) with a 105 mm gun. That's no MBT indeed and suited to recon.
However, APCs are also sent: the Bastion (Arquus) APCs made by ACMAT, a subsidiary of Renault Trucks.

[Zanza]

Germany just confirmed that they will send Marders (unknown number) and another Patriot SAM battery.

[Legbiter]

And the Americans are sending over Bradleys with the Brits intimating they'll send tanks and therefore break that silly taboo. Nice.