Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Eddie Teach]

Hell, I'm not even going to piss on his grave.  If I didn't do it to Hannibal's, I won't do it to his.

[Ed Anger]

I laughed

[dps]

The basic problem in this part of the world is that the essential interests of Eastern Europeans outside of Russia (with the exception, perhaps, of ethnic Russians) are fundamentally at odds with Russian notions of its role as a great power in the area - which Russia lacks the ecomomic muscle to translate into reality in any event.

Take the West out of the equation, and the situation remains the same, only even more dangerous. It is not at all clear what would happen if, say, Russia attempted to re-expand to its former imperial size - or even, for that matter, attempted to swallow Ukraine whole. Russia has had victories, but against pretty feeble and disjointed opposition so far. Could it pay for a full-scale invasion of Eastern Europe - if the West essentially announced it did not care? Many of those countries - particularly Poland - have lots of economic muscle (comparatively) and no love of Russian domination.

As to the relative size, ability to mobilize, morale etc. of their conventional forces, I have no idea. The Russians can clearly beat up the (broke, corrupt and disorganized) Ukrainians, under the cover of "volunteers", but how many such operations can they undertake without overstretch? Russians are cheering Putin as he thumbs his nose at the West, but they may be less inclined to cheer as the war bites.

The threat of nukes, lunacy aside, is basically defensive. It isn't of much use in (say) invading Ukraine, the Baltics, or Poland. For that you need conventional forces, which are expensive. In essence, assuming that the West stays out of it altogether and gives Putin a free hand to do what he wants, he may still be unable to do it; his 'appetite may be stronger than his teeth'.

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you posted here, but if you take the West out of the equation, if the Russians want to expand back to their former borders, they don't have to try and do it all in one gulp.  Having taken the Crimea and a couple of other Ukrainian provinces, they cant wait 4 or 5 years and then take 2 or 3 more.  In the long run, the Russians have the numbers on their side;  they can afford to be patient. 

Of course, from their domestic political point of view, just how patient a given Russian leader or government can afford to be patient might be a completely different question.

[Malthus]

The basic problem in this part of the world is that the essential interests of Eastern Europeans outside of Russia (with the exception, perhaps, of ethnic Russians) are fundamentally at odds with Russian notions of its role as a great power in the area - which Russia lacks the ecomomic muscle to translate into reality in any event.

Take the West out of the equation, and the situation remains the same, only even more dangerous. It is not at all clear what would happen if, say, Russia attempted to re-expand to its former imperial size - or even, for that matter, attempted to swallow Ukraine whole. Russia has had victories, but against pretty feeble and disjointed opposition so far. Could it pay for a full-scale invasion of Eastern Europe - if the West essentially announced it did not care? Many of those countries - particularly Poland - have lots of economic muscle (comparatively) and no love of Russian domination.

As to the relative size, ability to mobilize, morale etc. of their conventional forces, I have no idea. The Russians can clearly beat up the (broke, corrupt and disorganized) Ukrainians, under the cover of "volunteers", but how many such operations can they undertake without overstretch? Russians are cheering Putin as he thumbs his nose at the West, but they may be less inclined to cheer as the war bites.

The threat of nukes, lunacy aside, is basically defensive. It isn't of much use in (say) invading Ukraine, the Baltics, or Poland. For that you need conventional forces, which are expensive. In essence, assuming that the West stays out of it altogether and gives Putin a free hand to do what he wants, he may still be unable to do it; his 'appetite may be stronger than his teeth'.

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you posted here, but if you take the West out of the equation, if the Russians want to expand back to their former borders, they don't have to try and do it all in one gulp.  Having taken the Crimea and a couple of other Ukrainian provinces, they cant wait 4 or 5 years and then take 2 or 3 more.  In the long run, the Russians have the numbers on their side;  they can afford to be patient. 

Of course, from their domestic political point of view, just how patient a given Russian leader or government can afford to be patient might be a completely different question.

Sheer numbers do not necessarily translate into military effectiveness though - or Israel would have been toast years ago.  While Russia is making its little gulps, its potential victims will, presumably, not be idle - and Poland at least is getting relatively developed. Meanwhile, Russia's economy and political life is being distorted by funding its imperal vision - none of the gulps Russia has taken have actually paid off - quite the opposite, Russia has been spending a mint to acquire and hold on to them.

[alfred russel]

I think the little gulp strategy is the worst one. Every little gulp brings more sanctions and instability. But one big gulp--yeah you get hit with sanctions and many world leaders say many angry words, but then you come to jesus a few years later and the world moves on.

[grumbler]

Sheer numbers do not necessarily translate into military effectiveness though - or Israel would have been toast years ago.  While Russia is making its little gulps, its potential victims will, presumably, not be idle - and Poland at least is getting relatively developed. Meanwhile, Russia's economy and political life is being distorted by funding its imperal vision - none of the gulps Russia has taken have actually paid off - quite the opposite, Russia has been spending a mint to acquire and hold on to them.

Yep.  Russia is a foundering ship that is building up a collection of anvils.

[Martinus]

Plus I wouldn't say Russia has numbers on its side. It is running a deteriorating raw materials-based economy with a declining (and highly unhealthy) population. And it's a federation, which means its diverse territories do not necessarily feel any lasting connection to the metropolis.

[Valmy]

Plus I wouldn't say Russia has numbers on its side. It is running a deteriorating raw materials-based economy with a declining (and highly unhealthy) population. And it's a federation, which means its diverse territories do not necessarily feel any lasting connection to the metropolis.

It is kind of ridiculous.  Russia has manifold serious problems, why are they wasting their energies trying to do this crap?  Empire is what you do after your foundation is strong.

[Martinus]

I think that nails it exactly.

The Uraine is a great example - Russia wants to create this narrative where the Ukraine is being interfered with by the West, and absent that interference, would be happy to be a pawn or satellite of Russia. While the West may very have "interfered" in some manner, the reality is that what is driving the Ukraine is simply self interest, and it is pretty obvious that they are better off aligned with the rich, successful, free West rather than fucked up Russia.

I have a reasonable notion of what Ukrainians are thinking, from my in-laws: they are looking across the border at Poland, and wondering WTF they can't do the same ... and concluding the biggest slice of the problem is that they are dominated so completely by Russia. Recent events have only made that conclusion more stark (though to be fair, Ukraine hasn't even begun to tackle its own internal problems of its culture of corruption - hard to do while being eaten alive by Russia).

Some of my in-laws back in Ukraine travel to Poland for seasonal work. They can see for themselves the difference between a functioning country and a non-functioning country.

You don't hear as much anymore in the West from the Russian trolls the ludicrous bullshit about how the Ukrainian government is composed of Nazis and anti-Semites. I assume that inside Russia itself, that is still the narrative.

That's cool to hear. I really like Ukrainians, although there are portions of Polish society who really hate them, which is sad and annoying. Poland is exporting a lot of political thought to Ukraine in form of think tanks and the like, and tries (albeit with mixed success) to invest there. Our firm has an office there which has close ties to Warsaw, but again it is not as successful as was hoped (although two of my Warsaw based colleagues got their wives from among our Ukrainian colleagues so at least that's something ). Lots of gay people from Ukraine live in Poland too.

[Valmy]

(although two of my Warsaw based colleagues got their wives from among our Ukrainian colleagues so at least that's something ).

Wives have been a very popular export for them.

[Martinus]

(although two of my Warsaw based colleagues got their wives from among our Ukrainian colleagues so at least that's something ).

Wives have been a very popular export for them.

Well it was more the case of them coming to our Warsaw office originally to have the "Ukrainian desk" and then meeting these guys and getting married, so that's not "mail order brides". I have not really got to know one of them but the other is a very nice person.

[Valmy]

Well it was more the case of them coming to our Warsaw office originally to have the "Ukrainian desk" and then meeting these guys and getting married, so that's not "mail order brides". I have not really got to know one of them but the other is a very nice person.

Yes you made that clear when they said they found them amongst their colleagues. 

[Tamas]

So I read the Italian PM was in Moscow for money.

Orban's press guy said good to see the Italian PM on the Orban Way of letting economic interests decide foreign relations

[KRonn]

The Russian economy is in the dumpster, the ruble is cratering, bonds at junk bond status. Probably most the result of sanctions but not all.  I've read that Crimea's basket case economy is costing them a fortune as well. Now it's as if Putin is stuck in what he's doing, and while he'll most likely get a piece of Ukraine and get what he wants, how will Russia really be better off for it economically? Not for a while anyway. The nation's economy and government are a mess of corruption and criminal activity. I'm just amazed that the people are taking all this stuff so quietly. Yeah, they buy the propaganda which really is remarkable given how over the top it is. Putin gets good ratings for his invasions but that stuff isn't making the nation stronger and better off. Plus I don't really believe the polls as I assume many Russians are quite afraid to say they don't support Putin.

[DGuller]

I don't think they're afraid, at least not yet.  Or if they are afraid, it manifests in Stockholm Syndrome.  I can very much believe the figure as is, Russians have been subjected to extensive brainwashing for almost three years now.