Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Theyve got at least a humvee and apc on the other side.
They're being covered by jammers and artillery still on the other side.
I do get the impression it's more than just a small raid this time.
As ive said in the past they've also a delicate line to walk with keeping it just within the levels where Russia regards it as a local problem.

[Grey Fox]

Maybe those Caracals can show up sooner than later and help with establishing a workable beachhead.

[Tamas]

On some pan-Hungarian conference Orban explained it is tough to support Ukraine because they do not have clear objectives in the war.

[Valmy]

I agree with this piece.
The difficult battle isn't the actual battle. It's getting western support.
Ukraine is sort of obliged to take some stupid risks if they make for good tv - I suspect they're filming a lot on the east bank and will be releasing it in time.

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agree, in full.
And that is an indictment of western attitudes more than anything else. It's exactly the bs that Putin is counting on to win in the end: the absolute inability of the West (its citizenry and politicians) to have more focus than a goldfish.

Won what though? Ukraine was a country in serious trouble with a rather bleak future, and Russia is going to go in and blow it to shit and then take over governing a large portion of it? Russia already has tons of shitty disintegrating cities. How is adding a few more anything but a drain to it?

This whole situation has only made Russia weaker. And frankly the best outcome for them is forcing the West to take in and integrate all of Ukraine into the EU and NATO. That would be an enormous drain to our resources and cause all kinds of political problems for us.

This whole thing seems like some kind of weird Russian suicide pact, deciding that since they are doomed they might as well take down Ukraine at the same time.

But I don't know Putin's secret plan. Maybe the key for a glorious Russian future is a secret gizmo buried under the Donbas somewhere?

[Josquius]

I agree with this piece.
The difficult battle isn't the actual battle. It's getting western support.
Ukraine is sort of obliged to take some stupid risks if they make for good tv - I suspect they're filming a lot on the east bank and will be releasing it in time.

article

agree, in full.
And that is an indictment of western attitudes more than anything else. It's exactly the bs that Putin is counting on to win in the end: the absolute inability of the West (its citizenry and politicians) to have more focus than a goldfish.

Won what though? Ukraine was a country in serious trouble with a rather bleak future, and Russia is going to go in and blow it to shit and then take over governing a large portion of it? Russia already has tons of shitty disintegrating cities. How is adding a few more anything but a drain to it?

This whole situation has only made Russia weaker. And frankly the best outcome for them is forcing the West to take in and integrate all of Ukraine into the EU and NATO. That would be an enormous drain to our resources and cause all kinds of political problems for us.

This whole thing seems like some kind of weird Russian suicide pact, deciding that since they are doomed they might as well take down Ukraine at the same time.

But I don't know Putin's secret plan. Maybe the key for a glorious Russian future is a secret gizmo buried under the Donbas somewhere?

Yeah for sure. Russia already had the most valuable part of Ukraine- Crimea and the surrounding sea.
From the minute it became clear Ukraine would fight back and over running the whole country to do with as they pleased in a quick month of work wasn't happening, it's clear that if Russia could have gone back in time and decided whether to invade or not the smart money would say not to do it.

But that is now the past. Russia did invade Ukraine and they are at war. Relative to the current situation Russia certainly can win- by keeping everything it has today- even if as they looked at things pre-war this wouldn't be a worthwhile gain.

Russia has certainly fucked itself with this war...but that and the fact it has decided this violent westward expansion path is open to it, make a Russian victory very dangerous.

[Jacob]

I think Putin's thinking that this conflict is civilizational, and that he can still win once internal Western contradictions reassert themselves (and politicians sympathetic to him or at least susceptible to subversion are elected).

On a separate topic - Russia is doing its best to stoke internal Western tension re: the conflict in Israel: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67360768

[crazy canuck]

I think Putin's thinking that this conflict is civilizational, and that he can still win once internal Western contradictions reassert themselves (and politicians sympathetic to him or at least susceptible to subversion are elected).

On a separate topic - Russia is doing its best to stoke internal Western tension re: the conflict in Israel: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67360768

Putin is just one US presidential election away from obtaining victory.

[Jacob]

Putin is just one US presidential election away from obtaining victory.

I don't think a Trump presidency guarantees Putin's victory, but it certainly makes his life significantly easier.

[crazy canuck]

Putin is just one US presidential election away from obtaining victory.

I don't think a Trump presidency guarantees Putin's victory, but it certainly makes his life significantly easier.

Why do you think Ukraine can hold if Trump is elected?

[Barrister]

I don't think a Trump presidency guarantees Putin's victory, but it certainly makes his life significantly easier.

I don't know that a Trump victory means Putin wins, but a Trump victory means Ukraine won't be able to push Russia out of its territory.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know that a Trump victory means Putin wins, but a Trump victory means Ukraine won't be able to push Russia out of its territory.

Agree, at least in the short term.

I can't see how Putin could "win". I still can't see (as has been difficult since the first three weeks) what Russian victory looks like.

[Josquius]

I don't know that a Trump victory means Putin wins, but a Trump victory means Ukraine won't be able to push Russia out of its territory.

Agree, at least in the short term.

I can't see how Putin could "win". I still can't see (as has been difficult since the first three weeks) what Russian victory looks like.

2014.
But with new borders.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I had said long before the war broke out, that if Putin invaded, anything he hoped to gain would never be worth the cost. Specifically because in terms of strategic interest, he already controlled Crimea (hell, to be frank he already had a basically permanent lease to the Russian naval base there, he actually controlled the strategically important part of Crimea even before they invaded Crimea.) What he was always most likely to get would be some territory in eastern Ukraine--territory that will certainly not be worth what the war has cost so far--and it is far from over and the costs are far from being done getting counted up.

Most notably--Russia had development deals for gas fields and other resources in Eastern Ukraine before these wars, like...without firing a bullet Russia was well positioned to get most of the benefits it could hope to get out of Ukraine without the need to try and annex territory. The fact Russia is fighting over the right to annex land it didn't need is the height of strategic stupidity.

[Barrister]

I don't know that a Trump victory means Putin wins, but a Trump victory means Ukraine won't be able to push Russia out of its territory.

Agree, at least in the short term.

I can't see how Putin could "win". I still can't see (as has been difficult since the first three weeks) what Russian victory looks like.

I think Putin would celebrate a cease-fire at the current military lines as a victory, and it probably would be taken as such by ordinary Russians.  Russia has gained more territory, Putin is the heir to Peter the Great, that sort of thing.  Whether it was worth the tremendous cost is a whole different question.

[crazy canuck]

I don't know that a Trump victory means Putin wins, but a Trump victory means Ukraine won't be able to push Russia out of its territory.

Agree, at least in the short term.

I can't see how Putin could "win". I still can't see (as has been difficult since the first three weeks) what Russian victory looks like.

I will ask you as well, why do you think the Ukraine can hold if Trump is elected president?