Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Yeah I wonder if Germany's support is similar to their Fukushima reaction (i.e. a populist move as opposed to a deliberate diplomatic agenda) - they see the popular route and go all in on it. I recall the German government was very slow to move until public opinion made it clear they wanted to support Ukraine. The question is if it has gone too far for them to just stop the support, I hope it has.

[Sheilbh]

Germany announcing another €1.5 billion military aid today. They are now by some distance Ukraine's most important European backer. Sad to say the UK is less involved now, which also partly just reflects Sunak v Johnson on this issue (though as I say meeting or exceeding last year's aid).

There are risks in German politics - as everywhere else - like the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht's new party (which is fascinating). But I think views on Germany is another area that is a little stuck in Q1 2022. Germany started shifting immediately. Russia invaded on Thursday 24, I believe the Bundestag was not in session but returned that Saturday for the Zeitenwende speech. I've seen no reason to think that's changing or likely to change.

I don't think Germany has a fast moving political culture. I think it seems, from the outside, to operate by consensus and struggles to imagine risks or options that are not already within that consensus (which is why Germany is perhaps sometimes a little slow to recognise the risk from Russia - or China). But once something is incorporated into that consensus view it will inexorably, inevitably happen - see Fukushima. I think support for Ukraine and the Zeitenwende are within that consensus (subject to the AfD and BSW risks).

Again, Germany can and should do more particularly on ramping up production. I slightly worry about the impact of debt and Germany's insane schwarze null constitutional amendment. In the last week we've already seen the Constitutional Court look at that and basically blow up a big chunk of Germany's climate policy and I think it could do it for the budget shenanigans for Germany's defence spending. As with climate, I think it's a need for the return of politics. I also think there's a worry about German defence spending because Germany spends less than France or the UK as % of GDP on defence, but in actual € terms they spend as much on the Bundeswehr as the UK or France do on their militaries. For all of our defence procurement problems, I think we're getting more out of that money than Germany is given the difference between what France and the UK can actually deploy v Germany - that also probably needs fixing.

But I think Germany's shift is important and profound in German politics and society - but will be implemented slowly and perhaps in a different way than their allies (particularly France) would like.

[Josquius]

Bad news slowly unfolding on the front line and in international support for Ukraine but on the positive side....

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

It seems the military secret mobilisation has finally started to hit the Russian economy.
When the war started over 700,000 fled abroad. When the mobilisation was announced another 500,000 joined them. Most of these were well paid, young, and educated. And they have resisted any attempt to get them to return to Russia.
Russia already has a really disastrous population pyramid. They have far more women than men. Their 0-29 age group is seriously below average - especially against countries like the US. Russian men have a life expectancy of just 58, which is truly terrible. Ultra high alcoholism and an off the charts suicide rate is just one aspect of being a man in Russia. Russian women last out to about 75.
Working age Russians are distinctly male, women retire at 56.5 years whereas say in the Uk its 67, men in Russia retire at 61.5 but few live long enough.
So Russia has an elderly low survival retired population, the majority of its population is older, it has nowhere near enough young people to pay the bill for older retirees.
Russian unemployment is said to run at about 3.0% which is low, but then vast numbers are in the military and 330,000 men are dead from the war.
So the number of available workers capable of doing the work required is incredibly tight.  To get people to work pay has gone up 9.5% - largely driven by unofficial inflation being over 30%. Even the official rate of inflation has risen to 6.7% suggesting it's easily 25-30% higher than that.
The official rate of interest has gone from 7.5% to 15% and that's crushingly high for business and mortgage holders - putting pressure on pay and production costs.
Russian factory gate prices have also sky rocketed. They have risen 16.7% in one month which is horrific in any economy of any kind. That jacks up inflation, pay and the cycle continues, magnified by the collapse in the Ruble's value.
When that 1.2 million people left demand collapsed. Now the military industrial complex has ramped up it needs workers but keeps having them shipped off to the front. So demand increases while production can't be met because of worker shortages.
Russia also has a pensioner problem. Pensions are a massive trigger for unrest in Russia - you don't piss of the pensioners - even considering cutting their payments causes blowback.
Russia could allow immigration - but nobody wants to move there. None of its neighbours who used to have workers head to Russia for the pay are doing so - because Russian racism means they pick migrant workers out and send them to the front. Everything Russia tries to do to jack up military production, unless labour is taken from another business to support it, meaning that production then drops in that field, just never pans out. Skilled people keep getting mobilised even when they're classed as essential industrial workers. Even the police have found themselves stretched as their prior immunity is being slowly removed.
Driven by incompetence and inconsistent policy application, lack of respect for regulations to meet quotas, has hacked away at industrial production and starkly undermined the economy as a whole. Even though they can see this in their own statistics, nobody will question it as they all try to make themselves look good. There has to be chronic misreporting at a high level to mismanage the strategic situation so badly. But that's dictatorship for you. Lack of honesty, lack of transparency, the need to please and say only what matters is more important than the truth.
Russia's economy is in constant flux right now. It doesn't have any stability, its taxes, prices, pay, and costs are all over the place and impossible to forecast. Business isn't doing well and nobody knows how to be honest enough to provide a solution.
From our perspective looking in all sounds good to me! Knowing they're having such a hard time works wonders. Now it just has to translate in to defeat.

[Tonitrus]

https://www.newsweek.com/us-arms-makers-dubai-airshow-russia-sanctions-1845564

U.S. arms makers dominated last week's Dubai Airshow, as Russia failed to report a single sale, with one executive claiming the country had been sidelined from the exhibition's main pavilion.

Russian officials brought with them to the exhibition 250 samples of weapons and equipment, but its state aerospace and defense company Rosoboronexport did not secure a single contract during the event, The Moscow Times reported.

[Jacob]

I wonder why... 

[DGuller]

I wonder why... 

It says it right there, they've been sidelined from the main pavilion.

[Tamas]

  I certainly don't envy their salespeople. "Sure, you are right, we can't run a successful offensive no matter how hard we try; we are using drones from Iran, a country under sanctions for the past 50 years, and our tsar went hat in hand to beg for munitions from North Korea which is essentially a time portal to the 1950s, but this is top of the line stuff which we can TOTALLY manufacture and deliver on schedule".

[Legbiter]

So Finland has closed all border crossings with russia except one in the north after they started spamming migrants to the Finnish border. Apparently they're also setting up temporary camps for them in the Murmansk  region, presumably so they can turn them on and off as needed while keeping them under control. 

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728695006460891324

It seems the russians really want the Finns to permanently close the border. The Finns turned the migrants away and now the russians get to house and feed these...ambassadors of vibrant cultural enrichment so this hybrid attack doesn't seem that successful.

 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

they'll be sent to the front soon enough

[Tamas]

Maybe this is an ingenious way to reestablish the Iron Curtain by having your neighbour do it so you don't look bad back home?

[jimmy olsen]

Bad news slowly unfolding on the front line and in international support for Ukraine but on the positive side....

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

...

Source?

[Josquius]

Bad news slowly unfolding on the front line and in international support for Ukraine but on the positive side....

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

...

Source?

Just a telegram channel, so take it all with a pinch of salt. Though this one is usually pretty balanced and accurate. This certainly lines up with snippets picked up elsewhere.

I've been trying to track down who the guy behind it is. His claims present him as some sort of very experienced ex British military, currently working in the military adjacent private sector guy. But there's hints that don't add up. I take it as poster on forums who has a clue and considering theres little actual reporting on Ukraine and Russia anymore...

Here's the guy anyhow
https://t.me/militarystrategyanalysis

[Sheilbh]

Interesting on Mark Galleoti podcast that he talked about articles in the Russian press. They're not necessarily dicatated by the Kremlin but are all in a controlled media space and his analysis was it sounds a lot like they're almost trying to convince themselves that the West is about to give up on Ukraine and do a deal with Russia. The terms of those deals are basically full Novorossiya (including Odessa) plus a neutral buffer Ukraine.

His take was that Ukraine fatigue is not just a Western phenomenon. Russian official sources are also trying to reassure themselves that any day now there'll be a deal that Putin could try to claim as victory.

It's not going to happen obviously for all the reasons we've talked about. But flagged the mood might shift from that hope after the winter - Russia will have their presidential electioin which will be a big target for Ukrainian operations inside Russia and the mud will freeze so there'll be a resumption of Ukrainian offensives.

[Tamas]

BTW I suppose the Dnepr doesn't freeze enough to let heavy equipment drive over?

[Josquius]

BTW I suppose the Dnepr doesn't freeze enough to let heavy equipment drive over?

I wouldn't want to risk it.
Though it is a wonder how it'll affect cross river operations in general.
Caught on the tv news last night - the first time Ukraine has gotten a mention for months - that there's a huge snow storm across the south. Hope the Ukrainian troops on the left bank are prepared.