Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Razgovory]

I like the one where Hillary Clinton has been executed by Trump and has been replaced with a hologram.  Now that's a death conspiracy theory.

[Tamas]

Probably not dead during the Wagner coup but possibly dead since that last rumour of him passing. That was what, a month ago?

[Jacob]

Is the idea of dictators like Putin (and Xi) using doubles for security purposes obviously ridiculous, a bit far fetched, pretty reasonable, or well established?

Seems like we have a wide range of assumptions on that in this thread.

[Jacob]

I figure that for such a conspiracy, the US has to be in on it as well.  I can't imagine in what context they wouldn't want to blow the whistle on this scheme.  If Biden could basically livestream Russian preparations for war for the whole world for several months, then I imagine he would also know about a little thing like Putin dying.

That's a good point.

That said, I think something like "Putin died, a small inner circle knows and are using a body double to hide that fact" is going to be easier to hide than massive troop movements that can be seen by satellite and involves hundreds of thousands of people (troops, logistics and other supporting services) who are potential informants.

I do wonder how deeply US (or other) intelligence services have penetrated the higher echelons of Russian leadership.

[Valmy]

Is the idea of dictators like Putin (and Xi) using doubles for security purposes obviously ridiculous, a bit far fetched, pretty reasonable, or well established?

Seems like we have a wide range of assumptions on that in this thread.

I mean sure they have body doubles but they don't look, act, and sound exactly the same. They just look similar enough to thwart assassins.

[Jacob]

I mean sure they have body doubles but they don't look, act, and sound exactly the same. They just look similar enough to thwart assassins.

So basically: there are body doubles, but the likeness isn't exact enough to keep up a long term charade even for someone who keeps his distance as much as Putin does.

[grumbler]

I mean sure they have body doubles but they don't look, act, and sound exactly the same. They just look similar enough to thwart assassins.

So basically: there are body doubles, but the likeness isn't exact enough to keep up a long term charade even for someone who keeps his distance as much as Putin does.

That's what I would argue; they have body doubles that can confuse at a distance, but they can't fool anyone who knows them when up close.  We have examples of body doubles for people like Stalin.  Felix Dadaev on the left, Stalin on the right.

[Josquius]

I do think times have moved on and authoritarian dictators these days have better doubles who they make get plastic surgery even.

Another explanation that came to mind for me could be his declining mental faculties making him forget simple things and behave out of character at times.

For instance.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-health-double-coup-russia-b2367233.html

Though that the independent is the highest quality media that seems to be talking about this is curious. It's a frequent enough story I'd have thought a respected outlet would have at least sought to disprove it.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I figure that for such a conspiracy, the US has to be in on it as well.  I can't imagine in what context they wouldn't want to blow the whistle on this scheme.  If Biden could basically livestream Russian preparations for war for the whole world for several months, then I imagine he would also know about a little thing like Putin dying.

That's a good point.

That said, I think something like "Putin died, a small inner circle knows and are using a body double to hide that fact" is going to be easier to hide than massive troop movements that can be seen by satellite and involves hundreds of thousands of people (troops, logistics and other supporting services) who are potential informants.

That does depend on just how many doubles Putin has.

[Jacob]

 

[Tonitrus]

If you have more than two, wouldn't the term "double" no longer be appropriate?

[Sheilbh]

Is the idea of dictators like Putin (and Xi) using doubles for security purposes obviously ridiculous, a bit far fetched, pretty reasonable, or well established?

Seems like we have a wide range of assumptions on that in this thread.

Don't know about Xi but I think Putin definitely does, especially around him visiting crowds etc. I think it's less likely with people who might be able to tell the difference/don't just see him on TV.

I think the challenge is, as with any conspiracy, the number of people who'd need to be in on it - especially given Putin's divide and rule strategy which means there's multiple, overlapping agencies with competing agendas, patronage networks and bosses who'd need to cooperate. I'm not sure there's any figure who could take over smoothly and with acquiescence from the rest and I think in mobilising in whatever way (not necessarily marching on Moscow) it'd be a very broad circle.

I think more likely, if he died, might weirdly be the constitutional route - the PM (who is a technocrat without a base would take over), and then there'd be elections with an endorsed candidate from the system once the bosses had settled things.

[Jacob]

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Zoupa]

Presented without comment:

[Josquius]

Needs placing side by side with the same graph for Russia and I suppose some other Russian tied states.

But pfff.

Interesting /sad commentary read the other day. Russia is sorting out its production issues and getting fully into gear as a war economy. Recent Ukrainian raids on supply convoys found they consisted of entirely new trucks.

The west meanwhile... Seems to be inching away from bothering to do anything. We promise cash. But actually getting the production needed done shows no signs of starting.

Also on the BBC today about the Kherson front.

BBC News - Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67565508

Interesting that it sounds like both sides have cracking morale.