Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Duque de Bragança]

The one that gets me is how Spain insists an exclave like Gibraltar must return to Spanish rule, while still occupying Olivença on the Portuguese border.

Double standard fixed for the Anglos not really knowledgeable on the matter.
 

By the way, Ceuta and Melilha are not even comparable to each other as they were acquired and kept, much less to Gibraltar.

[Grey Fox]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1504416951518564360%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

Lots of planes out of Moscow today. Private planes are going to Dubai, Military planes went East.

[celedhring]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1504416951518564360%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

Lots of planes out of Moscow today. Private planes are going to Dubai, Military planes went East.

Given Putin's yesterday speech, a lot of oligarchs must be feeling the urge to not get purged.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504402050192400391

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1504440778940112902

[Tamas]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504416951518564360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1504416951518564360%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

Lots of planes out of Moscow today. Private planes are going to Dubai, Military planes went East.

Given Putin's yesterday speech, a lot of oligarchs must be feeling the urge to not get purged.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504402050192400391

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1504440778940112902

Too bad for all the innocents who will get caught in the crossfire, though.

[celedhring]

Deputy Rosgvardia chief allegedly arrested (if you read the thread you'll see that Russian media confirm that he's been "fired")

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504440205352349700

[Syt]

This whole crackdown - makes you wonder if it will cement Putin's grip, or if it's early signs for a beginning of the end for him.

[Berkut]

A lot of US support in the Soviet era went to Hekmatyar, a very malign figure.  Whether one can trace clear lines to the Taliban and 9-11 can be questioned but that the US put money and guns into the hands of some dubious characters cannot be IMO.  The broader problem as grumbler indicates is that the US allowed itself to be manipulated by Pakistan on the questionable assumptions that the Pakistanis understood the region and had a clear alignment of interests with the US.  The Taliban became ISI's proxy replacement when Hekmatyar ceased to be useful to Pakistan. The US can fairly be argued to have contributed to the political and material climate that paved the way for the Taliban's rise to power.

There is no question that the US has *heavily* contributed to the political and material climate of the world generally.

We are the most powerful, wealthiest, and influential country on the planet of course.

And we have made many, many mistakes as well.

My contention here isn't that the US actions haven't had some impact on the shitty things that have happened, because of course they have. But I think it is insanely difficult to simplify those impacts in a way that makes comments like "Gosh, arming the Afghan rebels just led to the Taliban and AQ and 9/11" mean anything at all. To me that is an indicator of the mental state of the person making the comment more then any sober analysis of US foreign policy errors.

To make that sober analysis, you have to craft some credible narrative of how NOT doing what the US did do would have been better. You would have to be able to argue that arming those rebels, at that time, was a mistake, and NOT arming them would have resulted in a better long term outcome. I don't see how anyone can make that argument. 

I think not arming people trying to free themselves from an attack from a foreign sovereign power intent on imposing a puppet state on them (does that sound familiar to anyone?) cannot possibly turn on the religious beliefs of the people involved.

The argument today that the US made a mistake in arming Afghan rebels because they were all Muslims is exactly aligned with the argument that we should arm Ukrainians, but only because they are NOT Muslims. If that is true, we should just give up on this idea of "Western liberal values" altogether.

[Solmyr]

Also interesting, Uzbekistan condemns military action and confirms their view on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/tumarov/status/1504373168575766533?s=21

Possibly another straw in the wind on Chinese views given Sino-Russian competition in Central Asia?

Where does Uzbekistan usually sit?
It's the one that doesn't like Kazakhstan right? - Kazakhstan being the one most a Russian puppet. Could explain it.

Kazakhstan's president just suggested reforms to reduce presidential powers and move towards a more parlamentarian system. He might be taking this opportunity now since Russia won't have the ability to "de-nazify" Kazakhstan for a while.

[Solmyr]

Really good speech from Arnie: https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

[Syt]

Really good speech from Arnie: https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

Was about to post that.

[Berkut]

So if/when peace comes. Does Putin remain a pariah? Would Putin be invited to G20 meetings, climate change meetings and all that stuff? In other words, would it be back to normal?

I sure as hell hope not.

Putin is and should be treated as a pariah.

We should be working actively at supporting regime change in Russia. When that goes to shit, everyone can blame the US for it later.

[Jacob]

Also interesting, Uzbekistan condemns military action and confirms their view on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/tumarov/status/1504373168575766533?s=21

Possibly another straw in the wind on Chinese views given Sino-Russian competition in Central Asia?

I am starting to become optimistic on China reading the military situation and leaving Putin to hang in the wind.

Apparently the Chinese ambassador to the US wrote the Washington post to say they'd support Ukraine economically and wouldn't support Russia.

We'll see how much it's worth, but if true it at least indicates that Chinese support for Russia is going to be subtle and covert rather than overwhelming and strident.

[Syt]

[The Brain]

Who or what is Peter Schiff?

[celedhring]

The tweet is tone-deaf as hell, but Zelinsky did wear a suit in several clips at the beginning of the war. He seems to have ditched it for the uniform and the stubble, which I guess are more "wartimey".