Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

If any of you feel like bearing witness to the human cost of Russia's aggression, here's an AP article on children, pregnant women, and other civilians being killed in Mariupol.

[CountDeMoney]

Should we make it part of our support for Ukraine that no weapons we provide are allowed to go to Muslims?

I'm sure more than one member of Congress would insist.

[grumbler]

I know it is considered just obvious that if only the US had not supported the Afghan resistance, then 9/11 never would have happened....but I've never quite figured out the bright line from the one to the other. It doesn't seem nearly so obvious to me.

That's because 95% of the people talking about US policy in Afghanistan don't know what they are talking about.  The US mistake was in not supporting the unity government proposals in 1992, long after the Soviet withdrawal.  The HW administration foolishly believed that Pakistan's advice was going to serve US national interests.  Instead, it allowed the Pakistanis to maneuver the Taliban into a position where it could wage a successful civil war in 1996.  Even then, no Taliban members were among the 9/11 attackers. 

[grumbler]

I know it is considered just obvious that if only the US had not supported the Afghan resistance, then 9/11 never would have happened....but I've never quite figured out the bright line from the one to the other. It doesn't seem nearly so obvious to me.

The primary groups opposing the Russians were radical Islamic ones. We supplied them with weapons which increased their effectiveness and legitimacy. When the Russians eventually pulled out, that hard fought (and US aided) resistance led the radical Islamic groups to be in positions of power and popular support. They assumed control and in turn financed and aided other radical Islamic groups. Often times with tacit US support if they opposed our enemies in said locations. This continued the expansion of radical Islamic power and doctrine, and when combined with continual US support for Israel, eventually yielded to Al-Queda and 9/11. That is how I read it at least. It isn't a straight line and it isn't a super powerful one, but it is still there.

The problem is that you have to suppose that none of that would have happened absent that US support back in the late 80s and early 90s.

Had the US NOT aided the Afghan rebels, would the USSR have held onto Afghanistan? There was war in Afghanistan after the USSR left, for years. The Taliban won that war, mostly, but everyone fighting over Afghanistan were all groups that fought against the Soviets - in fact, the Taliban of all the groups was the *least* directly involved in the war against the Soviets.

And Aghanistan was not the major supporter for terrorist groups in the Middle East - it has always been dirt poor. It provided sanctuary for Al-Quaeda, but there money came from Saudi Arabia and other rich Islamic actors (and generally not states at all, but more "private actors"). So how was the US support for Islamic groups fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan so critical to the later rise of terrorism and jihadism aimed against other Muslims?

"Tacit US support" is such a delicious statement - it covers anything and everything. Every single organization everywhere has had "tacit US support" since that could mean anything from the Marshall Plan to some CIA operative telling someone the US thinks they are swell. It means nothing.

The rise of jihadist terrorism and militant islam is a fascinating subject. It is incredibly complex, and the US had a role to play in it for sure. But a) that role is minor compared to the role that regional actors, demographics, politics, economics, and religious conflict played, and b) thinking that you can summarize the rise of jihadist terrorism as simply as it being the outcome of something the US did is lazy thinking. The US does things, and then things happen. Correlation is not causation. Every other nation did things as well, and more importantly, the actual islamic jihadists and the cultures, nations, and people that created and supported them did things that do not lack their own agency.

I don't think there is an actual, *logical* argument to be made that it is at all certain that if the US had not supported the Afghan rebels against the Soviets, the world would be a better place today for anyone - including the people who died on 9/11.

One could also note that the Taliban did not even exist when the Soviets were in Afghanistan.  Neither did Al Qaeda, really, since it was only founded in late 1988 and the Soviets withdrew in February 1989.

[viper37]

There are far right nuts in Ukraine sure. But you cannot tell me there are not similar nuts in Russia (or other countries for that matter)

I mean I have heard from Putin in the past couple years that both Poland and Finland were pro-Nazi and deserved to be invaded by the USSR in 1939 (nevermind the USSR was the actual Nazi ally) and that Ukraine is a fake country that shouldn't exist. I am willing to bet his opinions there are not crazy outside the mainstream.

Far right = not aligned with Russia, as previously established here

There are good nazis, the ones aligned with Russia.  The other ones are bad nazis.

You jest. But in general yes.
Stalin wasn't much better than Hitler but at a certain moment in time he had his use.

well, of course.  There's a guard unit fighting on Ukraine's side who are pretty much neo-nazis.  I see no reason to remove them from the fight right now.

[viper37]

Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions

One front at a time, Comrade.

If they have logistics issues invading Ukraine, wait until they try invading Alaska.

Anyway we bought it from a willing seller at the fair market price so no backsies.

it would be easier if they tried to invade the US from the South... I think I saw something like that, once... 

[viper37]

On the whole Cold War v 2.0 - is there anything the West can do to activate other problems for the Putin regime? Financial and weapons aid to Georgia? Any other trouble zones for Russia we could stir a bit in a relatively effective way?

Finance LGBT+ organizations in Russia? 
 

Moldova might be a likely target, if they get past Ukraine.  Arm this country preventively, train their forces, etc.  Same with NATO members close to Russia and Ukraine, like Poland and the Baltic States, which is what we were doing before we pulled them all out prior to the current invasion.

[viper37]

I sure wish there was some way to get Putin to just back off and not have to have it go this far.

Keep absolute crippling sanctions in place. Get Sweden and Finland into NATO. Rearm. Station beefy military forces in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, including ballistic missiles. Shitpost on social media about how glorious a sudden nuclear strike on Russia would be. Be a scary, unpredictable junkyard dog.

I like it

[The Minsky Moment]

A lot of US support in the Soviet era went to Hekmatyar, a very malign figure.  Whether one can trace clear lines to the Taliban and 9-11 can be questioned but that the US put money and guns into the hands of some dubious characters cannot be IMO.  The broader problem as grumbler indicates is that the US allowed itself to be manipulated by Pakistan on the questionable assumptions that the Pakistanis understood the region and had a clear alignment of interests with the US.  The Taliban became ISI's proxy replacement when Hekmatyar ceased to be useful to Pakistan. The US can fairly be argued to have contributed to the political and material climate that paved the way for the Taliban's rise to power.

[Jacob]

Well written account of the battle of Voznesensk in the WSJ. It's behind a paywall, but there's a transcription on Reddit which I'm posting here:

A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War's Most Decisive Routs

In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers

VOZNESENSK, Ukraine—A Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder, Voznesensk's funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, spent this Tuesday driving through fields and forests, picking up dead Russian soldiers and taking them to a freezer railway car piled with Russian bodies—the casualties of one of the most comprehensive routs President Vladimir Putin's forces have suffered since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military's abilities and severed Ukraine's key communications lines.

Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.

The Ukrainian defenders' performance against a much-better-armed enemy in an overwhelmingly Russian-speaking region was successful in part because of widespread popular support for the Ukrainian cause—one reason the Russian invasion across the country has failed to achieve its principal goals so far. Ukraine on Wednesday said it was launching a counteroffensive on several fronts.

"Everyone is united against the common enemy," said Voznesensk's 32-year-old mayor, Yevheni Velichko, a former real-estate developer turned wartime commander, who, like other local officials, moves around with a gun. "We are defending our own land. We are at home."

The Russian military says its Ukraine offensive is developing successfully and according to plan. Moscow hasn't released updated casualty figures since acknowledging on March 2 the death of 498 troops, before the Voznesensk battle.

Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 vehicles—tanks, armored personnel carriers, multiple-rocket launchers, trucks—as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter's remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday.

Russian forces retreated more than 40 miles to the southeast, where other Ukrainian units have continued pounding them. Some dispersed in nearby forests, where local officials said 10 soldiers have been captured.

"We didn't have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery," said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident. "The Russians didn't expect us to be so strong. It was a surprise for them. If they had taken Voznesensk, they would have cut off the whole south of Ukraine."

Ukrainian officers estimated that some 100 Russian troops died in Voznesensk, including those whose bodies were taken by retreating Russian troops or burned inside carbonized vehicles. As of Tuesday, 11 dead Russian soldiers were in the railway car turned morgue, with search parties looking for other bodies in nearby forests. Villagers buried some others.

"Sometimes, I wish I could put these bodies on a plane and drop them all onto Moscow, so they realize what is happening here," said Mr. Sokurenko, the funeral director, as he put Tuesday's fifth Russian cadaver on blue-plastic sheeting inside his van marked "Cargo 200"—Soviet military slang for killed in action. A Ukrainian military explosives specialist accompanied him, because some bodies had been booby trapped.

About 10 Ukrainian civilians died in Voznesensk during the combat and two more after hitting a land mine afterward, local officials said. Ukraine doesn't disclose its military losses. There were fatalities, mostly among the Territorial Defense volunteer forces, local residents said.

The Russian operation to seize Voznesensk, 20 miles from the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant, was ambitious and well-equipped. It began after Russian forces fanned out of the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow severed from Ukraine and annexed in 2014, and thrust northward to seize the regional capital of Kherson on March 1. They pushed to the edge of Mykolaiv, the last major city before Odessa, Ukraine's main port.

About 55 miles north of Mykolaiv, Voznesensk offered an alternative bridge over the Southern Bug river and access to the main highway linking Odessa with the rest of Ukraine. Russian forces raced toward the town at the same time as they made a successful push northeast to seize the city of Enerhodar, where another major Ukrainian nuclear power plant is located. Voznesensk's fall would have made defending the nuclear plant to the north of here nearly impossible, military officials said.

Mayor Velichko worked with local businessmen to dig up the shores of the Mertvovod river that cuts through town so armored personnel vehicles couldn't ford it. He got other businessmen who owned a quarry and a construction company to block off most streets to channel the Russian column into areas that would be easier to hit with artillery.

Ahead of the Russian advance, military engineers blew up the bridge over the Mertvovod and a railroad bridge on the town's edge. Waiting for the Russians in and around Voznesensk were Ukrainian regular army troops and members of the Territorial Defense force, which Ukraine established in January, recruiting and arming volunteers to help protect local communities. Local witnesses, officials and Ukrainian combat participants recounted what happened next.

Missile strikes

The Russian assault began with missile strikes and shelling that hit central Voznesensk, destroying the municipal swimming pool and damaging high-rises. Helicopters dropped Russian air-assault troops in a forested ridge southwest of Voznesensk, as an armored column drove from the southeast. Mr. Velichko said a local collaborator with the Russians, a woman driving a Hyundai SUV, showed the Russian column a way through back roads.

Ukrainian officers estimate that some 400 Russian troops took part in the attack. The number would have been bigger if these forces—mostly from the 126th naval infantry brigade based in Perevalnoye, Crimea, according to seized documents—hadn't come under heavy shelling along the way.

Natalia Horchuk, a 25-year-old mother of three, said Russian soldiers appeared in her garden in the village of Rakove in the Voznesensk municipality early March 2. They told her and neighbors to leave for their safety, and parked four tanks and infantry fighting vehicles between the houses. "Do you have anywhere to go?" she recalled them asking. "This place will be hit."

"We can hide in the cellar," she replied.

"The cellar won't help you," they told her. Hiding valuables, she and her family fled, as did most neighbors.

Outside Rakove, Volodymyr Kichuk, a guard at a walnut plantation, woke to find five Russian airborne troops in his hut. They took his phone and forced him to lie on the ground, said his wife, Hanna. "Once they realized there was nothing to steal, they told him: You can get up after we leave," she said. By day's end, the couple were gone from the village.

Russian soldiers took over villagers' homes in Rakove and created a sniper position on a roof. They looked for sacks to fill with soil for fortifications, burned hay to create a smoke screen and demanded food.

A local woman who agreed to cook for the Russians is now under investigation, said Mr. Dombrovsky. "A traitor—she did it for money," he said. "I don't think the village will forgive her and let her live here."

Downhill from Rakove, Russian forces set up base at a gas station at Voznesensk's entrance. A Russian BTR infantry fighting vehicle drove up to the blown-up bridge over the Mertvovod, opening fire on the Territorial Defense base to the left. Five tanks, supported by a BTR, drove to a wheat field overlooking Voznesensk.

A group of Territorial Defense volunteers armed with Kalashnikovs was hiding in a building at that field's edge. They didn't have much of a chance against the BTR's large-caliber machine gun, said Mykola Rudenko, one of the city's Territorial Defense officers; some were killed, others escaped. Russian troops in two Ural trucks were preparing to assemble and set up 120mm mortars on the wheat field, but they got only as far as unloading the ammunition before Ukrainian shelling began.

Phoning in coordinates

As darkness fell March 2, Mr. Rudenko, who owns a company transporting gravel and sand, took cover in a grove on the wheat field's edge under pouring rain. The Russian tanks there would fire into Voznesensk and immediately drive a few hundred yards away to escape return fire, he said.

Mr. Rudenko was on the phone with a Ukrainian artillery unit. Sending coordinates via the Viber social-messaging app, he directed artillery fire at the Russians. So did other local Territorial Defense volunteers around the city. "Everyone helped," he said. "Everyone shared the information."

Ukrainian shelling blew craters in the field, and some Russian vehicles sustained direct hits. Other Ukrainian regular troops and Territorial Defense forces moved toward Russian positions on foot, hitting vehicles with U.S.-supplied Javelin missiles. As Russian armor caught fire—including three of the five tanks in the wheat field—soldiers abandoned functioning vehicles and escaped on foot or sped off in the BTRs that still had fuel. They left crates of ammunition.

Mr. Rudenko picked up a Russian conscript days later, he said, who served as an assistant artillery specialist at a Grad multiple-rocket launcher that attacked Voznesensk from a forest. The 18-year-old conscript, originally from eastern Ukraine and a Crimea resident since 2014, suffered a concussion after a Ukrainian shell hit near him. He woke the next morning, left his weapon and wandered into a village, Mr. Rudenko said. There, a woman took him into her home and called the village head, who informed Territorial Defense. "He's still in shock about what happened to him," Mr. Rudenko said.

Mr. Dombrovsky, the reconnaissance-unit commander, said he captured several soldiers in their early 20s and a 31-year-old senior lieutenant from the Russian military intelligence. The lieutenant, he said, had forced a private to swap uniforms but was discovered because of the age discrepancy—and because Ukrainian forces found Russian personnel files in the column's command vehicle.

"The Russians had orders to come in, seize, and await further instructions," Mr. Dombrovsky said. "But they had no orders for what to do if they are defeated. That, they didn't plan for."

Russian troops had detained a local man on March 2 after they found him to have binoculars, villagers said. "They had put him in a cellar and told him they will execute him in the morning, for correcting artillery fire," Mr. Dombrovsky said, adding that the detainee wasn't a spotter. "But in the morning they didn't have time to execute him. They were too busy fleeing."

The Russians retreat

As the Russian forces retreated on March 3, they shelled the downhill part of Rakove. A direct hit pierced the roof of the local clinic, where Mr. Dombrovsky's mother, Raisa, worked as a nurse. "We've just built a new roof," she sighed, showing the gaping hole. "But it doesn't matter. The main thing is that we have kicked them out, and survived."

When villagers returned to Rakove on March 4, they found their homes ransacked. "Blankets, cutlery, all gone. Lard, milk, cheese, also gone," said Ms. Horchuk. "They didn't take the potatoes because they didn't have time to cook."

This week, village homes still bore traces of Russian soldiers. Cupboards and closets were still flung open from looting, and Russian military rations and half-eaten jars of pickles and preserves littered floors.

The Ukrainian army's 80th brigade was towing away the last remaining Russian BTRs with "Z" painted on their sides, the identification markers that in Russia have become the symbol of the invasion. About 15 Russian tanks and other vehicles were in working or salvageable condition, said Mr. Dombrovsky. "We are ready to hit the Russians with their own weapons," he said. Others, mostly burned-out wrecks, were removed from streets because they scared civilians and contained ordnance, the mayor said.

Electricity, disrupted during combat, has returned in Voznesensk, as have internet, gas and water services. ATMs have been restocked with cash, supermarkets with food.

The only explosions are from bomb squads occasionally disposing ordnance. Mr. Velichko, the mayor, fielded citizen phone calls Tuesday, telling one he would take care of a possibly rabid dog and assuring another that her utilities wouldn't be cut in wartime even if she was late in paying. He argued with an army commander because Ukrainian soldiers had siphoned fuel from the gas station.

Spartak Hukasian, head of the Voznesensk district council, said the city—no longer near front lines—was starting to get used to relatively peaceful life again. "He who laughs last laughs best," he said. "We haven't had a chance to laugh until now."

Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at [email protected]

[celedhring]

Galeev's daily thread I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504131287086514188

Now, this maps out with my - anecdotical - experience with Russian speakers. There's this Russian-speaking Latvian girl I know. She's pretty conservative and has her share of questionable politics (she's antivaxx, for example), so you'd think she would be sensitive to Kremlin propaganda, but when discussing the invasion she was terrified they would be next on the list "I don't want to be Russian, Russia's a shithole".

There's also all the Russian diaspora (I work with several) that just will never, never, entertain the thought of returning there.

[Syt]

Interesting little anecdote about former FPÖ foreign minister Kneissl (now a "political refugee" in Southern France ). You remember her:



Seems Putin gifted her with two opal earrings that a Vienna auction house valued at EUR 50,000. The interior ministry categorized this as a state gift (from foreign HoS to an Austrian state official) and has claimed ownership. Kneissl - shockingly! - disagreed. So they compromised that the earrings are loaned to her, but to be returned by her heirs upon her death. But Austrian media say the current situation is unclear because apparently the topic arose again when she left office, and it's unclear how it's been resolved. Since she has pointed out her dire financial situation in the past (after which she got a board position at Rosneft and became commentator on RT) I wouldn't be surprised if she just sold them at some point.

[celedhring]

Good news:

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
It's a miracle - civilians that were hiding in a basement at the Drama Theater in Mariupol survived the air strike.
Now they are getting evacuated from underneath the ruins.

[Solmyr]

If they have logistics issues invading Ukraine, wait until they try invading Alaska.

Can we get Russia to send their entire army to Alaska? Would really make everyone elsewhere in the world safer.

[Josephus]

So if/when peace comes. Does Putin remain a pariah? Would Putin be invited to G20 meetings, climate change meetings and all that stuff? In other words, would it be back to normal?