Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

If Ukraine agrees to some sort of peace with Russia, what then is the end game for sanctions?  Keep them in place until Putin resigns?  Drop them immediately?

There is a chance of the West and Ukraine having diverging preferences.

Keep Russia largely isolated from the world economy until a government comes into place that doesn't go invading other countries repeatedly.  Oh and that doesn't murder it's own citizens on foreign soil, or interfere with elections in other countries.

[viper37]

There are far right nuts in Ukraine sure. But you cannot tell me there are not similar nuts in Russia (or other countries for that matter)

I mean I have heard from Putin in the past couple years that both Poland and Finland were pro-Nazi and deserved to be invaded by the USSR in 1939 (nevermind the USSR was the actual Nazi ally) and that Ukraine is a fake country that shouldn't exist. I am willing to bet his opinions there are not crazy outside the mainstream.

Far right = not aligned with Russia, as previously established here

There are good nazis, the ones aligned with Russia.  The other ones are bad nazis.

[Sheilbh]

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

Worth flagging the Ukrainian negotiators have pushed back pretty hard on this report and basically said the FT's been spun by the Kremlin.

I don't see - given the context of this war for Ukraine and Zelensky, how they would be able to accept the status quo about Crimea or the Donbas.

[Josquius]

There are far right nuts in Ukraine sure. But you cannot tell me there are not similar nuts in Russia (or other countries for that matter)

I mean I have heard from Putin in the past couple years that both Poland and Finland were pro-Nazi and deserved to be invaded by the USSR in 1939 (nevermind the USSR was the actual Nazi ally) and that Ukraine is a fake country that shouldn't exist. I am willing to bet his opinions there are not crazy outside the mainstream.

Far right = not aligned with Russia, as previously established here

There are good nazis, the ones aligned with Russia.  The other ones are bad nazis.

You jest. But in general yes.
Stalin wasn't much better than Hitler but at a certain moment in time he had his use.

[celedhring]

Netflix now carries Servant of the People 

Christ, I might even give it a watch.

[Barrister]

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

Worth flagging the Ukrainian negotiators have pushed back pretty hard on this report and basically said the FT's been spun by the Kremlin.

I don't see - given the context of this war for Ukraine and Zelensky, how they would be able to accept the status quo about Crimea or the Donbas.

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607

Blue checkmark advisor to Zelenskyy says the FT report summarizes Russia's position, and that Ukraine has their own.

Losing Crimea or the Donbas "republics" would make it impossible for Putin to spin any agreement as a win.  After 8 years of Russian governance regaining either territories would be incredibly difficult for Ukraine going forward.  I suspect the best that would happen would be a return to the pre-war status (i.e. Russian occupied, not recognized by Ukraine).

The context of the war though is plenty of civilians have been killed.

If I was Ukraine I'd be far more concerned about the limits on military proposal, which I would think is a non-starter.  Security guarantees aren't worth much.

[Barrister]

Netflix now carries Servant of the People 

Christ, I might even give it a watch.

Does it have a proper and more-or-less professional translation?

[viper37]

As for 2014, well, the moment a country has disputed territory, it can't join NATO.  It's not like Russia wasn't aware of that significant little fact.

Serious question for those more knowledgeable: wasn't Spain admitted despite a "territorial dispute" over Gibraltar?

It's not a serious dispute like Crimea, however.  And it would be between two NATO members, and I'm pretty sure the international community recognizes sovereignty of the UK over Gibraltar.

[Jacob]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

If Ukraine agrees to some sort of peace with Russia, what then is the end game for sanctions?  Keep them in place until Putin resigns?  Drop them immediately?

There is a chance of the West and Ukraine having diverging preferences.

I'm with the Brain on this. We are in a Cold War with Russia - who has long declared their enmity for the West and everything we stand for. We should not relent even a centimetre until at the very least there is a regime change.

Even with a regime change, every concession we give should be very instrumental - we get something we want and/ or move Russia into a position more to our liking.  Nothing should be given because we hope trade or relationships will somehow move Russia in the right direction over time.

[DGuller]

Netflix now carries Servant of the People 

Christ, I might even give it a watch.

Does it have a proper and more-or-less professional translation?

Yes, the Netflix English subtitles are properly done, and translate context rather than literal words.

[Barrister]

Netflix now carries Servant of the People 

Christ, I might even give it a watch.

Does it have a proper and more-or-less professional translation?

Yes, the Netflix English subtitles are properly done, and translate context rather than literal words.

OK cool.

I had been curious (even before the war, because Zelensky's story is quite unusual), but heard the only english translations were poorly-done fan-made ones on Youtube.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The fact that Gibraltar is even disputed is so weird to me, in any norm of international relations it is unambiguously British. Unless we believe treaties basically mean nothing once a country "feels like it wants land because it once owned it." It'd be like Mexico trying to do a take-bake on the Western United States.

[Sheilbh]

Does it have a proper and more-or-less professional translation?

There is one - it's on Channel 4 here as well as Netflix and is pretty good.

Losing Crimea or the Donbas "republics" would make it impossible for Putin to spin any agreement as a win.  After 8 years of Russian governance regaining either territories would be incredibly difficult for Ukraine going forward.  I suspect the best that would happen would be a return to the pre-war status (i.e. Russian occupied, not recognized by Ukraine).

I agree - but I don't think there is a way of Putin spinning an agreement as a win without actually winning. Similarly unless the military situation changes dramatically, I don't see any terms that would work for Russia being acceptable to Ukraine. I hope it's just me lacking imagination but I'm not sure what the ground is between Putin losing utterly/being removed or Ukraine losing - at the minute I think it's one of those.

The context of the war though is plenty of civilians have been killed.

I see lots of people talk about it as a given that Ukraine probably concedes on Crimea and the Donbass. But I think it's also a war of national liberation/survival and I can't see a way for any deal that concedes on that point not being perceived as a form of surrender of national territory from Ukraine. We may - and I hope not - get to a point where it's acceptable.

[The Brain]

Even with a regime change, every concession we give should be very instrumental - we get something we want and/ or move Russia into a position more to our liking.  Nothing should be given because we hope trade or relationships will somehow move Russia in the right direction over time.

I think this is very important.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think way too much concern is being put into the idea that Putin needs something he can sell--he controls all the cards, he can sell whatever the fuck he wants, and it will largely fly. The real calculus for Putin is going to be cost benefit IMO, his decision to back down will be based on a recognition that further fighting is only going to permanently weaken Russia. The time when that will be his conclusion is hard to predict--and sure, Putin may be so far gone that he will never come to that conclusion, in that case the war will not end in his lifetime most likely.

I think there are decent signs showing that Putin is still capable of some level of cost benefit analysis even though there's obvious evidence he has closed himself off from opposite opinions, that he put way too much importance into Ukraine, that he ignored a lot of good evidence in deciding to invade etc, but I don't think Putin is actually entirely gone. There are too many Putin apparatchiks speaking publicly to the press about various negotiated deals they would approve, that wouldn't be countenanced if Putin was totally blind to reality. Additionally, there are reports that elements of the Russian FSB and other security organizations have seen some top leaders placed under house arrest/punished, it is widely suspected this is because Putin is angered at how badly the invasion has gone and is hold those intelligence officials responsible. None of that speaks to a man who is blind to the costs his country is incurring.