Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

On the whole Cold War v 2.0 - is there anything the West can do to activate other problems for the Putin regime? Financial and weapons aid to Georgia? Any other trouble zones for Russia we could stir a bit in a relatively effective way?

I sure wish there was some way to get Putin to just back off and not have to have it go this far.

Anyway I suspect there is some chaos that can be done in central Asia to annoy the Russians, I just worry about doing something stupid like allying with Islamic nutballs like we did the last time.

[Jacob]

I sure wish there was some way to get Putin to just back off and not have to have it go this far.

I have become convinced that the only thing Putin respects is a (metaphorical) fist in the month. The more trouble we can make for him, the more amenable he'll be to backing off.

Anyway I suspect there is some chaos that can be done in central Asia to annoy the Russians, I just worry about doing something stupid like allying with Islamic nutballs like we did the last time.

Yeah that's definitely a risk.

[Legbiter]

I sure wish there was some way to get Putin to just back off and not have to have it go this far.

Keep absolute crippling sanctions in place. Get Sweden and Finland into NATO. Rearm. Station beefy military forces in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, including ballistic missiles. Shitpost on social media about how glorious a sudden nuclear strike on Russia would be. Be a scary, unpredictable junkyard dog.

[Sheilbh]

On the whole Cold War v 2.0 - is there anything the West can do to activate other problems for the Putin regime? Financial and weapons aid to Georgia? Any other trouble zones for Russia we could stir a bit in a relatively effective way?

Doubt that woud help - there's lots of Ukraine solidarity protests in Georgia but the government is broadly very sensitive to Russia/pretty appeasing.

The ruling party was created by the country's richest man, a billionaire with French, Russian and Georgian citizenship (and Chevalier of the Legion d'Honneur) and made his vast fortune in Russia. Apparently his net worth is about the same as a third of Georgia's GDP.

He even has his own Bond villain house above Tbilisi:


I think the party he founded (he was briefly PM but has now, according to him, left politics) is ostensibly pro-European and pro-NATO but it's not shown much indications of that in its actions.

[Berkut]

Isn't that the job of paratroops, like in Ste-Mère Église?  Get behind enemy lines, sabotage stuff, prepare the ground for the full invasion?  Granted, the American troopers had help from the French resistance, while the Russians did not.

But there's got to be other paradrop operations in modern history, that were successful with well trained troops? Operation Market Garden was a semi-success, not a total failure... Any others?

The distance from Hostomel to the Belorussian border is 471.7 kilometers, and Russia is just now approaching it on D+19.  From the XXX Corps jump off point to Arnhem is 100 kilometers, and they were *supposed* to reach it on day 3.  I'm not going to look up the D Day landing zones, but IIRC they linked up on D+1 or D+2.

My hunch is Hostomel was an attempt to cut off an easy escape route for the Ukrainian government.

It was all part of the "Ukraine will put up token resistance and then fold" story they told themselves.

Part of that story was that there would not be any significant anti-air to worry about, and a quick grab of the airport would then allow a lot more troops to be quickly flown in and supplied from the airport itself.

Comparing this to Market Garden or D-Day isn't the same - they went after an airport, not just some territory. The idea was that this would give them a way to get more troops and supplies behind the frontlines. The airport itself would be the lifeline, not the approaching troops (which would be there soon anyway, since the Ukrainians were not really going to fight).

Of course, the problems were twofold:

1. The Ukrainians fought, and 
2. The Ukrainians had enough counter air to make sending in a bunch of transport planes a fools errand.

Oops. It was a incredibly hubristic idea. Would have worked, if only there weren't, you know....enemies.

[CountDeMoney]

On the whole Cold War v 2.0 - is there anything the West can do to activate other problems for the Putin regime? Financial and weapons aid to Georgia? Any other trouble zones for Russia we could stir a bit in a relatively effective way?

I've got it. We can arm and bankroll fundamental Islamic groups.

[Jacob]

I've got it. We can arm and bankroll fundamental Islamic groups.

What could possibly go wrong...?

[Berkut]

I've got it. We can arm and bankroll fundamental Islamic groups.

What could possibly go wrong...?

I know it is considered just obvious that if only the US had not supported the Afghan resistance, then 9/11 never would have happened....but I've never quite figured out the bright line from the one to the other. It doesn't seem nearly so obvious to me.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpdVc1Wxlaw

US sending $800 million more in war toys.  Graphic breakdown of gear at 2:10.  600 Stingers and 2,600 Javelins are headline items.

[grumbler]

You jest. But in general yes.
Stalin wasn't much better than Hitler but at a certain moment in time he had his use.

Adolf had his uses, too.  After all, he was the guy who actually managed to kill Hitler.

[Sophie Scholl]

Adolf had his uses, too.  After all, he was the guy who actually managed to kill Hitler.

[CountDeMoney]

I know it is considered just obvious that if only the US had not supported the Afghan resistance, then 9/11 never would have happened....but I've never quite figured out the bright line from the one to the other. It doesn't seem nearly so obvious to me.

There's a distance of about Six Degrees of Kevin Alaikum there, but you know it would go over like a lead fart these days anyway. Snarky counter-sarcasm noted and catalogued, however.

I don't see today's Chechnyans jumping on the Great Satan bandwagon. But I bet there's more than a few that wouldn't mind killing more Russians again.

[Berkut]

I know it is considered just obvious that if only the US had not supported the Afghan resistance, then 9/11 never would have happened....but I've never quite figured out the bright line from the one to the other. It doesn't seem nearly so obvious to me.

The primary groups opposing the Russians were radical Islamic ones. We supplied them with weapons which increased their effectiveness and legitimacy. When the Russians eventually pulled out, that hard fought (and US aided) resistance led the radical Islamic groups to be in positions of power and popular support. They assumed control and in turn financed and aided other radical Islamic groups. Often times with tacit US support if they opposed our enemies in said locations. This continued the expansion of radical Islamic power and doctrine, and when combined with continual US support for Israel, eventually yielded to Al-Queda and 9/11. That is how I read it at least. It isn't a straight line and it isn't a super powerful one, but it is still there.

The problem is that you have to suppose that none of that would have happened absent that US support back in the late 80s and early 90s.

Had the US NOT aided the Afghan rebels, would the USSR have held onto Afghanistan? There was war in Afghanistan after the USSR left, for years. The Taliban won that war, mostly, but everyone fighting over Afghanistan were all groups that fought against the Soviets - in fact, the Taliban of all the groups was the *least* directly involved in the war against the Soviets. 

And Aghanistan was not the major supporter for terrorist groups in the Middle East - it has always been dirt poor. It provided sanctuary for Al-Quaeda, but there money came from Saudi Arabia and other rich Islamic actors (and generally not states at all, but more "private actors"). So how was the US support for Islamic groups fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan so critical to the later rise of terrorism and jihadism aimed against other Muslims?

"Tacit US support" is such a delicious statement - it covers anything and everything. Every single organization everywhere has had "tacit US support" since that could mean anything from the Marshall Plan to some CIA operative telling someone the US thinks they are swell. It means nothing.

The rise of jihadist terrorism and militant islam is a fascinating subject. It is incredibly complex, and the US had a role to play in it for sure. But a) that role is minor compared to the role that regional actors, demographics, politics, economics, and religious conflict played, and b) thinking that you can summarize the rise of jihadist terrorism as simply as it being the outcome of something the US did is lazy thinking. The US does things, and then things happen. Correlation is not causation. Every other nation did things as well, and more importantly, the actual islamic jihadists and the cultures, nations, and people that created and supported them did things that do not lack their own agency.

I don't think there is an actual, *logical* argument to be made that it is at all certain that if the US had not supported the Afghan rebels against the Soviets, the world would be a better place today for anyone - including the people who died on 9/11.

[Jacob]

I don't see today's Chechnyans jumping on the Great Satan bandwagon. But I bet there's more than a few that wouldn't mind killing more Russians again.

There is at least some anti-Kadyrov Chechens fighting against Russia in Ukraine right now, as I understand it. I'm no expert on Chechnya, but I believe that if Kadyrov stumbles there'll be plenty of folks in Chechnya willing make sure he falls.

[Berkut]

I don't see today's Chechnyans jumping on the Great Satan bandwagon. But I bet there's more than a few that wouldn't mind killing more Russians again.

There is at least some anti-Kadyrov Chechens fighting against Russia in Ukraine right now, as I understand it. I'm no expert on Chechnya, but I believe that if Kadyrov stumbles there'll be plenty of folks in Chechnya willing make sure he falls.

Should we make it part of our support for Ukraine that no weapons we provide are allowed to go to Muslims?