Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[alfred russel]

At gas stations on the Autobahn, a gallon of fuel is now more than $10. Thanks, Putin.

I have it on good authority (fox news) that is biden's fault.

[Josquius]

This is fine: https://twitter.com/i/status/1501676038090379267

The rule is simple; every nasty thing that Putin accuses Zelensky and Ukraine of being he is actually talking about himself and Russia.

What was the original source of that if you want to know what Russia is doing look what they accuse others of quote anyway?

[DGuller]

This is fine: https://twitter.com/i/status/1501676038090379267

The rule is simple; every nasty thing that Putin accuses Zelensky and Ukraine of being he is actually talking about himself and Russia.

Doesn't just apply to Zelensky and Ukraine either.

[Legbiter]

My God Russia's propaganda game is weak.

All of it early on was aimed at intimidating the Ukrainians by showing Putin being all alpha male tough guy or scary Chechens advancing on Kænugarðr (before the Ukrainians killed most of them). It's only now the regime is working on shoring up support at home. 

Incidentally it seems every Russian with internationally marketable skills is fleeing to wherever is not Russia by the 10's of thousands. They see the writing on the wall. 

[Legbiter]

Russian tank column ambushed by Ukrainans in Brovary. Getting close to the capital from that direction.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501873146818969610

[grumbler]

A more direct equivalent is the Wagner Group, whose leader is an actual neo-Nazi:

Not really, because the Wagner Group is not part of the Russian military, while the Azov regiment IS part of Ukraine's.

[crazy canuck]

A more direct equivalent is the Wagner Group, whose leader is an actual neo-Nazi:

Not really, because the Wagner Group is not part of the Russian military, while the Azov regiment IS part of Ukraine's.

It seems their goal of providing plausible deniability is working to some degree.

[grumbler]

My God Russia's propaganda game is weak.

I'm sure that the "seized computers" with the data on them will turn out to be running WordStar.

[alfred russel]

Russian tank column ambushed by Ukrainans in Brovary. Getting close to the capital from that direction.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501873146818969610

I put that into google maps and asked for directions to the city center of Kiev/Kyiv. 43 minutes with lighter traffic than usual.

[grumbler]

It seems their goal of providing plausible deniability is working to some degree.

Probably not, in any way that matters.

[crazy canuck]

It seems their goal of providing plausible deniability is working to some degree.

Probably not, in any way that matters.

Ok, so what meaningful distinction were you trying to make?

[grumbler]

It seems their goal of providing plausible deniability is working to some degree.

Probably not, in any way that matters.

Ok, so what meaningful distinction were you trying to make?

Go back and read the exchange I was replying to.  I noted in post #5503 that the existence of the Azov regiment (which, if you look it up, you will find comprised of an international group of far-right mercenaries)in the Ukrainian military can't be used by Putin as evidence of Nazism because he has his own Chechen equivalent.  DG argued in post #5505 that the Wagner Group was a more direct comparison to the Azov Regiment because its leader is an avowed Nazi.  I noted in post #5525 that it was not a more direct comparison, because the Azov regiment was part of Ukraine's military, while the Wagner Group was not part of Russia's.  You then made some argument about plausible deniability in post #5526, which was a total non sequitur and not even true in any meaningful sense.

It's all right there, in this very thread.  You should read the exchange you are joining before posting non sequiturs.

[crazy canuck]

That's what I thought.  You have bought the Russian line.

In other news, more reason you gotta love Zal

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1501577368049176584?s=21

[Sheilbh]

I see the Lavrov-Kuleba meeting went well: "We are not planning to attack other countries. We also didn't attack Ukraine."

[Berkut]

I actually disagree on Japan on the even of Pearl Harbor. That was not a high risk gamble, that was just plain stupid.

I don't think anyone who was being rational, even in Japan, had any illusions about how it would end. It was not a bunch of rational actors taking a chance on the hopes of pulling an inside straight. Rather it was a *system* that was no longer capable of making rational (even risky but rational) decisions. Nobody with actual power had the ability to step back, not matter how irrational stepping forward was, so they just kept on stepping forward.

Yes.  It was a shame-based culture that demanded that one show no weakness before peers.  Everyone wanted someone else to have the courage to reveal that the emperor had no clothes.  The government ran a war exercise in the Spring of 1941 that conclusively showed that Japan would start on the road to defeat on the day war began.

The exact same thing happened during the conferences on surrender, except that some of the leaders without power to make the decision to surrender were vocal in their desire to accept surrender.  Those with the power knew that fighting on risked the very survival of the Japanese as a people, but couldn't bring themselves to make what they thought would be a sacrifice of personal honor.

"Rational" had nothing to do with either decision.  One could make the argument that rationalization, not rationality, drives most human behavior.

Exactly. 

And then we rationalize their rationalizations, just like we are seeing here now.

"Oh no, it wasn't THAT crazy....!"

Sometimes it is exactly just that crazy.

I think it is because people don't like to admit that in fact you cannot always reduce major decisions to rational (even if incorrent) choices. They want to believe that if someone makes a catastrophic mistake, like bombing Pearl Harbor, that leads to incredible human suffering, it could be avoided if only we got better at making sure the actors have the necessary information to avoid those mistakes in the future.

The idea that the problem is that entire states sometimes simply act irrationally is kind of terrifying, because how do you manage them? If Putin might make a decision on something as weighty as deciding to use WMDs, but is not making that decision based on reason and rational evaluation, how do you influence that?

History has so, so many examples of what (IMO) is *clearly* irrational decisions made - even with the information available to the decision makers - that I have little faith in the idea that we can predict the actions of actors like Putin on the basis of "He won't do that because that makes no fucking sense".