Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

there's a lot of american lpg tankers en route to europe apparently, so hopefully the gas-issue will become not a pressing come winter

[Legbiter]

Sounds like their plan is to wait for winter and a lack of gas to force Europe to pressure Ukraine into giving up - but how likely is that to work? The US is the major supplier for Ukraine anyway.

Yeah, I'm not connecting the dots in the Russian plan here. Sure, if the Ukrainians hadn't had any success in pushing the Russians back, the frontline had stabilized for over a year then maybe but right now the best bet Europe has now of shortening the war is to redouble support for Ukraine to just outright win. 

[Malthus]

there's a lot of american lpg tankers en route to europe apparently, so hopefully the gas-issue will become not a pressing come winter

That's something we in North America should really be concentrating on - not just support for Ukraine, but energy security for the rest of Europe.

I think we need to share some of those costs. It would bind us more closely together, which is going to be necessary - Russian and Chinese hostility isn't going away.

[Malthus]

Sounds like their plan is to wait for winter and a lack of gas to force Europe to pressure Ukraine into giving up - but how likely is that to work? The US is the major supplier for Ukraine anyway.

Yeah, I'm not connecting the dots in the Russian plan here. Sure, if the Ukrainians hadn't had any success in pushing the Russians back, the frontline had stabilized for over a year then maybe but right now the best bet Europe has now of shortening the war is to redouble support for Ukraine to just outright win. 

If I was Putin, I'd start thinking about bargaining for status quo prior to the invasion - I keep Donbas and Crimea, move my troops back, declare Ukraine "successfully de-Nazified' or whatever.

Ukraine won't go for that, but put pressure on Europeans to get them to agree to sell Ukraine out, for "peace in our time".

[Josquius]

EDIT: aren't a lot of the 'Russian' troops just conscripts from the DNPR and the LPR (sp?, those fake republics)? And aren't those militias not only badly armed but also pretty much depleted since the Russians have been using them as fodder (in their ploy to genocide as many non-russians as possible)

They are. In particular most of the defenders in the Kharkov theater are forced conscripts, agumented with some Russian paramilitary police to keep them in line.
As it turns out when this kind of "formation" encounters a NATO-like mechanized spearhead it dissolves like sugar in a glass of water.

From what I've read of the absoluteness of their conscription and how they're treat i wonder how many are switching sides.

[Iormlund]

Rumours of combat in Donetsk itself.

[Malthus]

Rumours of combat in Donetsk itself.

Just how far is this counter-offensive going to go?

[Legbiter]

Rumours of combat in Donetsk itself.

No operational reserves, the best equipped Russian units are stranded in Kherson...

[Legbiter]

Rumours of combat in Donetsk itself.

Just how far is this counter-offensive going to go?

Vladivostok for all I care.

[Iormlund]

It really baffles me that they would leave hundreds of km with no operational reserves. Nobody can be THAT stupid. There has to be a catch somewhere. And where the fuck is the Russian Air Force?

[Legbiter]

It really baffles me that they would leave hundreds of km with no operational reserves. Nobody can be THAT stupid. There has to be a catch somewhere.

Months of intense Ukrainian pressure on Russian logistics. Extremely good intelligence. Brave, actually trained and equipped Ukrainian soldiers.

And where the fuck is the Russian Air Force?

Blown up on the runway in Crimea a few weeks back. Shitty sensors and no precision munitions combined with Ukrainian air defense and MANPADS means little or no accurate CAS. Meanwhile the US gave the Ukrainians a ton of retrofitted HARM missiles which allowed them to use their SU-27's as serviceable wild weasel platforms to disable Russian air defenses.

We need to get them into NATO ASAP. At this point, fuck the Russians.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Rumours of combat in Donetsk itself.

yeah, i've been seeing claims all day that the airport in Donetsk was under attack. Seems unlikely though

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Ukraine is -at this point- probably one of the strongest and most capable militaries on the continent.

[celedhring]

Just learnt that Izyum allegedly means "raisins" in Ukrainian (DGuller may confirm).

[Malthus]

It really baffles me that they would leave hundreds of km with no operational reserves. Nobody can be THAT stupid. There has to be a catch somewhere. And where the fuck is the Russian Air Force?

Reserves seem to have been committed to stemming the southern counter-offensive.


Way I read it:

- Ukraine grinds down Russian offensive

- Ukraine basically announced southern counter-offensive in advance, imposes "news blackout" on it (which of course has the effect of drawing attention to it).

- Ukraine engages in southern counter-offensive against heavily prepared Russian positions, has some limited successes at heavy cost in casualties

- Russia, alarmed, pulls troops from other sectors and commits reserves to stem southern counter-offensive

- which is what Ukraine had been waiting for - as soon as Ukraine knows Russia is committed, it launches northern counter-offensive, prepared in secret

- Russian defences in northern sector are not well prepared (why bother, when everyone knows Ukraine will attack in the south?); plus, they have been drained of troops

- Russians in the north break, flee in panic, leave masses of difficult to replace equipment behind.

- no reserves are immediately available because they have already been committed in the south

[Tamas]

I wonder if the Kharkiv blitzkrieg was pre-planned or it was the case of US intelligence telling them "yo, we checked and Kharkiv has been emptied by Russians reinforcing the south, you might want to send in a mechanised division to swipe it all up"