Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Agreed on both counts.

[Solmyr]

I feel like it is worrying that the only loud opposition from the war in Russia is from far-right vloggers who are ashamed by the failures and demand general mobilisation and more vigorous action against Ukraine.

I know this is probably entirely because of the dictatorship and how these guys get permission while anti-war people get jail. But that doesn't change the fact that they get to control the narrative, and that they show that the news of the war going badly is spreading, yet there is no visible mass of people who would be willing to risk jailtime to oppose it.

Most of those people are already in jail. The latest case with major publicity just this week was a journalist getting 22 years.

[Tamas]

One of the (moderately) pro-government Hungarian news sites claim city councillors in St. Petersburg are openly calling for Putin to resign, but I found no other mention of it anywhere, I assume its fake news?

[Josquius]

I feel like it is worrying that the only loud opposition from the war in Russia is from far-right vloggers who are ashamed by the failures and demand general mobilisation and more vigorous action against Ukraine.

I know this is probably entirely because of the dictatorship and how these guys get permission while anti-war people get jail. But that doesn't change the fact that they get to control the narrative, and that they show that the news of the war going badly is spreading, yet there is no visible mass of people who would be willing to risk jailtime to oppose it.

I wonder on that whether if you are a anti war Russian it makes sense to take this approach ala Joe Lycett?
Outright saying murdering Ukrainians is bad will get you in jail so it's "the army is doing a terrible job. Only 1000 Ukrainians dead for 7000 of ours. I want to see every Ukrainian child on the end of their bayonets by October!"

[Tamas]

I feel like it is worrying that the only loud opposition from the war in Russia is from far-right vloggers who are ashamed by the failures and demand general mobilisation and more vigorous action against Ukraine.

I know this is probably entirely because of the dictatorship and how these guys get permission while anti-war people get jail. But that doesn't change the fact that they get to control the narrative, and that they show that the news of the war going badly is spreading, yet there is no visible mass of people who would be willing to risk jailtime to oppose it.

I wonder on that whether if you are a anti war Russian it makes sense to take this approach ala Joe Lycett?
Outright saying murdering Ukrainians is bad will get you in jail so it's "the army is doing a terrible job. Only 1000 Ukrainians dead for 7000 of ours. I want to see every Ukrainian child on the end of their bayonets by October!"

No that's not how it works, really.

[Sheilbh]

By the way - I will never get tired of watching videos of emotional Ukrainian civilians greeting Ukrainian troops after living under Russian occupation for months.

Same and there may be more soon - Ukraine liberating Kupyansk:

[Zanza]

Sounds like significant parts of the Northern Russian front have collapsed and even Izyum might fall soon.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

there's some rumours that it has already falled, including mass surrenders of russians.
would be nice if true. We'll know in a while

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9iry_nMOLc&ab_channel=UkraineMatters: the algorithm presented this, take with salt)

edit: the UA has liberated more territory in the last week than the Russians have occupied in the last few months (at great cost)...

edit2: the UA are also advancing on Lyman. Ozerne on the east was liberated a few days ago, Staryi Karavan apparently last night/day... Lyman has a big railyard iirc

[jimmy olsen]

Seeing tweeets all over the place by every Osint poster that Izyum has fallen! 

[Sheilbh]

Extraordinary if that bears out. What a collapse and Ukraine's a big country so the speed at which this is happening over fairly big distances is incredible.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Amazing performance, by both sides.

[The Larch]

One of the (moderately) pro-government Hungarian news sites claim city councillors in St. Petersburg are openly calling for Putin to resign, but I found no other mention of it anywhere, I assume its fake news?

I definitely read about it yesterday on Twitter as well. This is what I found googling:

Police pursue local Russian lawmakers who urged charging Putin with treason

A group of district council members in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin's hometown, called for the Russian leader to be charged with treason and removed from office in a rare but brazen protest against the war in Ukraine.

The brave move by the Smolninsky District Council drew a predictably swift and unfriendly reaction. A day after the resolution against Putin was made public, a local police station told the lawmakers they were facing legal charges "due to actions aimed at discrediting the current Russian government."

The district council's statement came in the form of a request to the Russian parliament, the State Duma, and asserted that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24 led to a massive loss of life, turned countless Russian men into disabled veterans, hindered the national economy, and fast-tracked NATO's eastward expansion.

A second municipal council in Moscow's Lomonosovsky district followed suit and voted on a similar motion calling on Putin to resign. Outspoken criticism of Putin is rare, and while the two motions were little more than symbolic statements, they represented a remarkable public rebuke. They also served as evidence that public support for the war in Ukraine is not universal, and could be eroding as a recent survey of Russian public opinion found.

"We believe that the decision made by President Putin to start the special military operation is detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens," the Smolninsky document filed on Wednesday evening said.

"We ask you," the lawmakers wrote, "to initiate a treason charge against the president of the Russian Federation to remove him from office."

Putin grew up in the Smolninsky neighborhood and began his career in St. Petersburg, where he served as a deputy mayor. Many of the Russian president's closest friends still live in St. Petersburg where some of them have grown fabulously wealthy during Putin's 22 years as the country's supreme leader.

The State Duma is controlled by Putin's United Russia party and is effectively his rubber stamp, at times adopting his policies by unanimous vote.

The resolution's authors conceded that they had little hope their request would be acted but that they believed they achieved their largely symbolic goal: to let other antiwar Russians know that they are not alone in their sentiment, which is often drowned out by the state's militaristic rhetoric, echoed by propagandists on state-controlled television.

The Kremlin has outlawed criticism of the war, and has initiated a further crackdown on dissent, including from journalists.

"We understand that Putin won't shed a tear and stop the operation," Nikita Yuferev, one of the seven councilors who wrote the document, said in an interview with The Washington Post. "These requests are written for people who are still in Russia and for whom the propaganda tries to assure that they are the minority, that there are no people who are against this."

The Lomonosovsky district's statement slammed Putin's rhetoric and urged him to step side.

"The rhetoric you and your subordinates use is full of intolerance and aggression," the statement said. "People once again fear and hate Russia while we threaten the whole world with nuclear weapons." The Lomonosovsky district added: "Therefore, we ask for you to be relieved of your duties as your views and governance model are hopelessly outdated."

Yuferev said that after their request went viral on Russian social media, the councilors received a "flurry" of letters of support from people offering anything from legal help to donations to cover the fines that will likely be imposed on the politicians.

In March, the Smolninsky councilors also wrote a letter to Putin urging him to stop the war as "the fate of thousands of Russian servicemen and millions Ukrainians are at stake."

Shortly, after Russian troops marched across the border, the Kremlin dialed up the level of the repressions against its opponents, outlawing the use of the word "war" when talking about the invasion and threatening those who publicly criticize the Russian army with fines and jail terms. Thousands fled the country, and hundreds have been fined or detained for antiwar demonstrations.

While Putin is unlikely to face any charges, the lawmakers are already under pressure and face at least a fine.

Just a day after the document went public, Yuferev received a text message from a local police station ordering him to come in to testify in proceedings launched against him and other council members "due to actions aimed at discrediting the current Russian government."

"We are sure that we have not violated anything as we acted strictly in accordance with the lawful procedure written in the Constitution," Yuferev said. "Of course, we live in a country where even if everything is done legally, but there is a desire to punish us, it will be done ... but we can manage a 50,000 rubles fine." (At current exchange rates, the fine amounts to about $850.)

[Admiral Yi]

Hooray for the good guys.

[Iormlund]

EDIT: aren't a lot of the 'Russian' troops just conscripts from the DNPR and the LPR (sp?, those fake republics)? And aren't those militias not only badly armed but also pretty much depleted since the Russians have been using them as fodder (in their ploy to genocide as many non-russians as possible)

They are. In particular most of the defenders in the Kharkov theater are forced conscripts, agumented with some Russian paramilitary police to keep them in line.
As it turns out when this kind of "formation" encounters a NATO-like mechanized spearhead it dissolves like sugar in a glass of water.

[grumbler]

Extraordinary if that bears out. What a collapse and Ukraine's a big country so the speed at which this is happening over fairly big distances is incredible.

"If your attack is going unexpectedly well... it's an ambush."

I hope not.