Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Malthus]

I wonder if the Kharkiv blitzkrieg was pre-planned or it was the case of US intelligence telling them "yo, we checked and Kharkiv has been emptied by Russians reinforcing the south, you might want to send in a mechanised division to swipe it all up"

My guess is that this was carefully pre-planned. Certainly with US help.

Once again, Ukraine seems to know exactly where the Russians are, while the Russians are entirely clueless as to where the Ukrainians are.

The US has basically said that they are feeding Ukraine military intelligence. Obviously, their abilities in this respect far outweigh Russia's.

Everyone is so focused on the military gear the West, particularly the US, is giving Ukraine. That stuff is certainly important. However, people are overlooking two other ways Ukraine is benefiting:

- training troops in Western style, particularly NCOs. This has been of the utmost importance.

- providing Ukraine with military intelligence.

These, together with the morale factor (Ukraine is fighting against a horrible enemy and for its national existence against a wholly unjustified attack) have made all the difference - without these other factors, advanced weapons would not have sufficed.

[celedhring]

I wonder if the Kharkiv blitzkrieg was pre-planned or it was the case of US intelligence telling them "yo, we checked and Kharkiv has been emptied by Russians reinforcing the south, you might want to send in a mechanised division to swipe it all up"

Still think the whole Kherson thing was their Operation Mincemeat, but instead of an overly complicated plot with fake plans planted on corpses washing out on a beach, the Ukranians just had to tweet about it to trick Russia into redeploying half their army.

[Admiral Yi]

Anyone have a good map that shows the recent gains?  I haven't been able to find one.

[Sheilbh]

Anyone have a good map that shows the recent gains?  I haven't been able to find one.

This is from yesterday so probably out of date - but these maps were from a pro-Russian account. So if this is their maps
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217?s=20&t=m7GaYwthGe4Ka4c7LnqxDQ

[HVC]

Kind of looks like a prelude to an encirclement. If the Russians were any good that is.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://deepstatemap.live/#6/49.438/32.053

in so far people don't know this one yet

and now there's apparently fighting near to Lysychansk too. Wouldn't that be something...
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm7cGVvYAW8&ab_channel=DenysDavydov , at around 6 minutes in)

this one has today's advances in a nice step by step presentation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK-VZnfZfZU&ab_channel=ReportingfromUkraine

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salt may or may not need to be applied due to bias.

[Tonitrus]

Anyone have a good map that shows the recent gains?  I haven't been able to find one.

This is from yesterday so probably out of date - but these maps were from a pro-Russian account. So if this is their maps
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217?s=20&t=m7GaYwthGe4Ka4c7LnqxDQ

That map makes me think of House Steiner attacking the Draconis Combine.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If I had to try and guess Putin's thinking, the land corridor going from Mariupol to Kherson, linking Russia proper with a solid land connection to Crimea, is probably the land Putin values the most because it solidifies his control of the north Black Sea and permanently reinforces his annexation of Crimea. I could see a scenario where he basically abandons the Northeast if he has to choose between fighting there and making sure the Ukrainians don't cut his land connection to Crimea.

[PDH]

One of the myths the Russian military has is that the soldiers will always withstand whatever hardships thrown at them by the enemy {or more commonly, their leaders).  There is some element of truth to this, the Russian soldiers have over time often faced situations and problems that would do in others.  However, they morale of the Russian soldier has crumbled several times in the past, either in large battles pre 20th century or in the modern times with wholesale collapse.

Late 1917 saw this, as did the opening months of Barbarossa.  The latter saw collapses up until the period of Rasputitsa  in late 1941.  Smaller scale, some of the counter-offensives in 1942 also saw local collapses of the will to fight.  When faced with incompetent leadership, lack of supply, or unexpected attacks, any fighting force can be pushed over the edge and full route/flight happens.  This happened to the Russians north of Kyiv earlier in this war, and it happened again with the Kharkiv offensive.

The Ukrainians know what is happening, and they are doing what they should, and all out pressing of a routed enemy who is fleeing and leaving behind cut off units, equipment, wounded, and vital intelligence information.  Also, and this is important, the Russians are leaving behind more Buchas that they can't even try to cover up, more evidence of their crimes.

If the "skeer" gets into a broader swath of the army, it could be more general, but at least in the region of Kharkiv, the effectiveness of fighting units is gone - along with huge amounts of material that would be needed to rebuild shattered fighting forces.

I think this offensive could well be the game changers in the war.

[Sheilbh]

I agree and I've seen lots in recent months about Western countries needing some evidence that Ukraine can push back and re-take territory - both for morale purposes internationally (especially, perhaps, in Europe as the impact of transitioning from Russian gas hits) but also to avoid a sense of sending arms to a military that might hold its ground but may not be able to push forwrd.

I think that's been resolutely answered - and I think now we need to be pretty maximalist in the West in keeping supplying Ukraine and getting them what they need.

[Iormlund]

It really baffles me that they would leave hundreds of km with no operational reserves. Nobody can be THAT stupid. There has to be a catch somewhere. And where the fuck is the Russian Air Force?

Reserves seem to have been committed to stemming the southern counter-offensive.

Strategic reserves, sure. But stripping the entire frontline of operational reserves as well?

Perhaps they thought the newly created 3rd Army Corps would do? but that's basically a reinforced brigade made up of untrained militia. Not really what you need when the going gets tough.

I wonder if the Kharkiv blitzkrieg was pre-planned or it was the case of US intelligence telling them "yo, we checked and Kharkiv has been emptied by Russians reinforcing the south, you might want to send in a mechanised division to swipe it all up"

I'm purely speculating here, but I very much doubt you can send a whole division blitzkrieging for days without a shit-ton of pre-planned logistics work behind the scenes.

[DGuller]

Just learnt that Izyum allegedly means "raisins" in Ukrainian (DGuller may confirm).

Yes, can confirm.

[PDH]

I think that this was definitely planned, and the groundwork laid by both intelligence assets and the open and loud talk about the impending Kherson Offensive.  To make this happen, the preparations in the south needed to be real, as they are, and the assets there needed to be able to limit supplies to the city and then to start the "1000 cuts" offensive they are attempting there.

I mentioned this a couple of days ago, but right when the Kherson Offensive started, the US announced that they had talked the Ukrainians out of a general attack to a more focused attack.  This, I think, was only a partial truth (at best) as I do not think that such success in the Kharkiv Region could happen without US intelligence adding to the preparations.

This left a large defensive groups of units in Kherson to defend the West side of the Dnipro River beyond very tenuous supply lines made worse by the attacks on the major bridges (that the Ukrainians had telegraphed they wanted to take out for some time).  The extra units for this came from "quiet" regions and the Russians it seemed relied on the old "everyone to the front line and hope" method of defense that in a quiet sector can make it seem like fewer reductions have taken place.

The Ukrainians had to be building up for this, 3-4 brigade groups, the ammo and fuel they need, don't just happen.  That it was kept under wraps is very interesting, but when the attack was unleashed, the defenses were revealed to be what they were - a thin shell with little behind.  Early reports of Ukrainian units directly attacking rear echelon units underscore this, and the video of the Humvees charging the small village show that the Ukrainian commanders realized that they were loose in the rear and they were exploiting the chaos.

As I said, this may well be a moment of change for the war, as myths have been exploded and the regional collapse of effective defense show that the earlier Kyiv Collapse was not an isolated thing.

[Razgovory]

How do you hide the preparations of a major offensive when the enemy has satellites?

[PDH]

How do you hide the preparations of a major offensive when the enemy has satellites?

You have the brigade groups involved be in defensive posture for a long time, especially while you are building up the logistics needed for a short, sharp offensive (which I think this was planned to be).  Eventually, the focus of the enemy become a bit lax, especially when the REAL OFFENSIVE kicks off in the south.  Then, the units can move up in short order and attack.

That's how I would do it.  Plus, having the US intelligence able to tell you when the satellites are going over helps too.