Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

It's a minor player in a minor party. The right in Sweden has been for Nato since forever, what counts are the social democrats and they waiver. Or perhaps not even that.

I think they believe that Nato will protect us and that we don't have to join. They are wrong, but that won't help.

Interesting that they're so slow. In Denmark, even the Socialist People's Party (who are to the left of the governing Social Democrats) have shifted their position to increase military spending, to not be in favour of withdrawing from NATO, and (IIRC) to accept stationing American troops on Danish territory even if those troops are not there in a NATO specific role.

[The Larch]

Sweden at least is in the EU, which has a common defence element, although never actually put to practice, that should make a difference with Ukraine.

[Zanza]

Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, reportedly"leaked" Russian MOD casualty figures, 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1505976094691934218

If true, that's one in eight lost out of the initial forces. Not quite Stalingrad, but still incredible high for a mere month.

[celedhring]

Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, reportedly"leaked" Russian MOD casualty figures, 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1505976094691934218

If true, that's one in eight lost out of the initial forces. Not quite Stalingrad, but still incredible high for a mere month.

Why would a pro-Kremlin tabloid report such a staggering figure? And that KIA/casualty ratio would be beyond awful too 

[Admiral Yi]

If true, that's one in eight lost out of the initial forces. Not quite Stalingrad, but still incredible high for a mere month.

Actually, IIRC, losses at Stalingrad were about 1/6 of the troops on the eastern front, so pretty close to Stalingrad.

That POW number is awesome and would corroborate all the POW interviews the Ukrainians have been releasing.  Though I do wonder why Ukraine hasn't realized an official Russian POW number.  You'd think that would be relatively easy to tally.

It's also nice that the KIA number synchs up with the US estimate for orders of magnitude.

[The Brain]

If true, that's one in eight lost out of the initial forces. Not quite Stalingrad, but still incredible high for a mere month.

Actually, IIRC, losses at Stalingrad were about 1/6 of the troops on the eastern front, so pretty close to Stalingrad.

That POW number is awesome and would corroborate all the POW interviews the Ukrainians have been releasing.  Though I do wonder why Ukraine hasn't realized an official Russian POW number.  You'd think that would be relatively easy to tally.

It's also nice that the KIA number synchs up with the US estimate for orders of magnitude.

WIA

[Admiral Yi]

Interesting that they're so slow. In Denmark, even the Socialist People's Party (who are to the left of the governing Social Democrats) have shifted their position to increase military spending, to not be in favour of withdrawing from NATO, and (IIRC) to accept stationing American troops on Danish territory even if those troops are not there in a NATO specific role.

Sweden had a much different WWII experience than Denmark and has never been a front line state.  Sweden's free riding has been pretty rational.

[Admiral Yi]

WIA

[/quote]

 

[The Brain]

Interesting that they're so slow. In Denmark, even the Socialist People's Party (who are to the left of the governing Social Democrats) have shifted their position to increase military spending, to not be in favour of withdrawing from NATO, and (IIRC) to accept stationing American troops on Danish territory even if those troops are not there in a NATO specific role.

Sweden had a much different WWII experience than Denmark and has never been a front line state.  Sweden's free riding has been pretty rational.

If we had gotten nukes things would have been more... interesting.

[viper37]

I think they believe that Nato will protect us and that we don't have to join. They are wrong, but that won't help.

How does one ignore the evidence before one's eyes on the news 24/7?  The rockets keep hitting Ukraine not Latvia.

Fake news, by western media propagandists obviously.  There are (real) images from an Ukrainian movie filming that are circulating on some social medias, posing it as the "fake Ukraine war".

[DGuller]

And that KIA/casualty ratio would be beyond awful too 

High KIA/casualty ratio may be a side effect of the policy of shooting your own wounded soldiers before retreating.

[Zanza]

Another claim about casualties, this including Russian mercenaries. 

A former internal affairs minister of #Ukraine
@AvakovArsen
 shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number ofservicemembers killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1505961677371621379

[Jacob]

Sweden had a much different WWII experience than Denmark and has never been a front line state.  Sweden's free riding has been pretty rational.

Very true.

[HVC]

Another claim about casualties, this including Russian mercenaries. 

A former internal affairs minister of #Ukraine
@AvakovArsen
 shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number ofservicemembers killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1505961677371621379

How big of an operation is Liga/Vagner? 4K in mercenaries seems quite large

[Iormlund]

And that KIA/casualty ratio would be beyond awful too 

High KIA/casualty ratio may be a side effect of the policy of shooting your own wounded soldiers before retreating.

Russia doesn't have air supremacy. They can't medevac their casualties.

I think one of the most important lessons we have to draw from the past month is that we've been seeing modern war through a very skewed perspective. The US can come and fuck your shit up, then have complete air and communications supremacy. But achieving that against a somewhat-competent military is almost impossible for the rest of us. And that changes everything.