Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[viper37]

Just hope they can force Ukraine to surrender with bombs.

I don't think he even wants their surrender anymore.  He simply wants to destroy, like a frustrated kid.

[grumbler]

I bow to your apparent greater knowledge of space station semi-casual working clothes and their logistical supply chain. common sense.

Indeed.  Nothing goes into space in a casual manner.  Everything is tested, weighed, and carefully packed for an extremely dangerous and weight-and-cube-limited environment.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

not sure if new but Halliburton is leaving Russia too now? That'll make another dent in Russian oil production...

and apparently the Russians have mined commercial trade routes in the Black Sea too.

all rumours but who knows what's really going on anymore

[Josquius]

not sure if new but Halliburton is leaving Russia too now? That'll make another dent in Russian oil production...

and apparently the Russians have mined commercial trade routes in the Black Sea too.

all rumours but who knows what's really going on anymore

Wouldnt they just be screwing themselves more than anyone there?

[mongers]

Ten million people have now fled their homes in the Ukraine, 3.4 million to other countries and 6.5 million internally displaced. This according to the UN.

[Berkut]

I'd slightly quibble with taking an anti-nationalist lens to this because I can't understand a frame for this fight that isn't basically Ukraine engaging in a national liberation/survival battle against Russia. Why else is Ukraine fighting if not for their nation to exist?

And yeah Russia isn't super great - but materially it has been far more successful than Ukraine for the last 25 years - GDP per capita in Ukraine is still below what it was in 1990. If that was all that mattered Ukraine should probably embrace becoming part of the Russian empire again. They're not and the reason is nationalism in a fight against a previous imperial overlord wanting to impose themselves and their culture on Ukraine again. It is looking to Europe and the West because there is model there that does not involve dissolving the Ukrainian nation.

The tribe, nationalism - all of that is also the stuff that is powering Ukrainian resistance (and that powered national liberation across Africa and Asia all through the twentieth century and ended empires). I don't think it's enough to simply point to the Russian side and say it's bad if, like me, you are remotely seduced by the Ukrainian side. I feel like it needs a bit more thinking - and I'm nowhere near there yet in thinking that through to anything like a conclusion. It's just a contradiction in my own takes I'm aware of.

Uhhh bullshit

They want to align with the west because aspiring to be as crappy as  Russia even if you are presently crappier then Russia would be stupid. 

It's not because not the west would let them stay Ukrainian. They had many decades of being a vassal of Russia and that's why they are crappier then Russia. 

[Berkut]

we can only hope that the Ukrainians can kill of the Russian army faster than the Russian army can learn...

At this point, it looks like they would be better off replacing their generalship with the HoI AI.

I hope there's a chance we eventually learn what went on with the "planning" of this operation. The Russian army's incompetence so far is truly puzzling. Yes, war is hard, and they are riddled with corruption and treating their soldiers like cattle probably isn't inspiring great morale, but still... they seem to be failing at everything - including the kind of things the Russian army is supposed to be good at.

I am more puzzled at everyone puzzlement 

The Russian army sucks for very obvious reasons 

[mongers]

More signs of Russian weakness, they've used a 2nd hypersonic missile to target a base just a few 10s of km from the frontline and cruise missiles to strike another base/store; if the campaign was going well they wouldn't need to resort to such standoff missiles to overcome Ukranian air defences?

[celedhring]

we can only hope that the Ukrainians can kill of the Russian army faster than the Russian army can learn...

At this point, it looks like they would be better off replacing their generalship with the HoI AI.

I hope there's a chance we eventually learn what went on with the "planning" of this operation. The Russian army's incompetence so far is truly puzzling. Yes, war is hard, and they are riddled with corruption and treating their soldiers like cattle probably isn't inspiring great morale, but still... they seem to be failing at everything - including the kind of things the Russian army is supposed to be good at.

I am more puzzled at everyone puzzlement

The Russian army sucks for very obvious reasons

I expected them to at least follow their own doctrine...

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9ZSjvlk0hU

Public theater at the Belarussian border.

[Josquius]

I'm reading today to add to the general tally the Ukranians have today killed a senior naval captain. Not be long before they bag an Admiral

we can only hope that the Ukrainians can kill of the Russian army faster than the Russian army can learn...

At this point, it looks like they would be better off replacing their generalship with the HoI AI.

I hope there's a chance we eventually learn what went on with the "planning" of this operation. The Russian army's incompetence so far is truly puzzling. Yes, war is hard, and they are riddled with corruption and treating their soldiers like cattle probably isn't inspiring great morale, but still... they seem to be failing at everything - including the kind of things the Russian army is supposed to be good at.

I am more puzzled at everyone puzzlement

The Russian army sucks for very obvious reasons

Traditionally yes. Though many who are even considered knwoledgable in the field had thought they'd gotten their shit together and overcame their post Soviet problems over the past decade.
That this would not be the case to such an amazing degree is quite a surprise.

[Sheilbh]

Superb interview with Ivan Krastev (who co-wrote The Light That Failed - which I strongly recommmend):
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-putin-lives-in-historic-analogies-and-metaphors-a-1d043090-1111-4829-be90-c20fd5786288

I think possibly the key point:

DER SPIEGEL: We are betraying the freedom of opinion?

Krastev: Perhaps. Because of the pandemic and this war, the state again plays a larger role. In the pandemic, it was the welfare state that cared for its citizens and kept them alive. In this war, it is the security state that doesn't just protect its citizens, but could also demand something from them: Namely, the readiness to make sacrifices. A friend of mine works at one of the biggest business schools. I told him: Everything you are teaching is useless. Just as useless as teaching socialism studies was in 1990. The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will be over. We don't know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn't make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we.

On the freedom of opinion point that was about shutting down RT etc - but there's actually a bigger issue on that on how the Commission is interpreting sanctions, which is I think profoundly paternalist and restrictive on opinion. That's not necessarily wrong but I think it deserved being actually discussed and examined rather than just being implemented through an interpretation of the sanctions regime.

[Legbiter]

Stalemate has a good chance of the Ukrainians cutting off more of the supply lines, at least during the mud time.  Then it will get even more nasty.  Hard to live on mud...

Yeah. The only battlefield "win" (I use that term very loosely) would be if they can over the next months wrest the Black Sea coastline away from Ukraine, turning it into a landlocked country. That would enlarge Russia, though at what cost...

[Iormlund]

Yale has a list of companies and how they've adjusted operations (or not) in Russia: https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-400-companies-have-withdrawn-russia-some-remain

My company is not listed, but seeing how our customer has suspended operations I'm guessing we did the same.

I did find interesting that IPG Photonics is listed as "Digging In". Arguably the most innovative company in the high-powered lasers field, the founder was a former Soviet Academician who emigrated to the US.
Apparently they still have significant operations in Russia. This a field with obvious military applications, so I'm wondering how and for how long they will be able to evade sanctions.
A statement on their web seems to imply that they are working on the possibility of shifting ops to their research and manufacturing centers in Germany and the US.

[Josquius]

Superb interview with Ivan Krastev (who co-wrote The Light That Failed - which I strongly recommmend):
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-putin-lives-in-historic-analogies-and-metaphors-a-1d043090-1111-4829-be90-c20fd5786288

I think possibly the key point:

DER SPIEGEL: We are betraying the freedom of opinion?

Krastev: Perhaps. Because of the pandemic and this war, the state again plays a larger role. In the pandemic, it was the welfare state that cared for its citizens and kept them alive. In this war, it is the security state that doesn't just protect its citizens, but could also demand something from them: Namely, the readiness to make sacrifices. A friend of mine works at one of the biggest business schools. I told him: Everything you are teaching is useless. Just as useless as teaching socialism studies was in 1990. The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will be over. We don't know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn't make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we.

That's a weird comment. Surely long before 1990 it was clear the Soviet system wasn't a winner though it might still be worth studying, as it is today, anyway.
Other branches of socialism have shown themselves to be far more effective.

But it is interesting timing coming right after covid. I guess to learn from is how in 2008 everyone was saying we need to change so the same thing doesn't happen again... But this was soon rolled back and forgotten about. The risk was very much this would happen post covid. But with Ukraine too.... Maybe not.