Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josephus]

This newsletter I subscribe to summarized a recent Institute for the Study of War analysis on the likelihood of a stalemate.:

The viral images of Russian tanks stuck in mud is a fitting metaphor for how the country's invasion in Ukraine is going: More than three weeks in, this conflict is likely headed for a stalemate, according to new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Here's how the respected research group came to this conclusion.

1. Russia's initial campaign has failed. It attempted to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other major Ukrainian cities in the first few days of the war, but it hasn't been able to capture those areas due to its own miscues and fierce Ukrainian resistance.

2. It's getting bogged down in Mariupol. Russia has devastated the southeastern Ukrainian city with a suffocating siege and constant shelling. But by devoting so many resources to Mariupol, Russia's other initiatives are lacking sufficient combat power, the ISW wrote. And even if Russia does take Mariupol (which residents say "is no city anymore"), it may not significantly change the balance of the war.

3. Russia's current strategy isn't working. Its military is stretched thin, engaging in small-scale, local fighting that isn't producing results. It could take the time to pause its invasion, regroup with more resources, and launch a concentrated attack with the appropriate amount of combat power, but it doesn't appear to be changing tack, per the ISW.

So what does stalemate mean?
Nothing good. It "will likely be very violent and bloody," the researchers concluded, referencing the mass casualties of World War I trench warfare. In military-speak, a stalemate is not a ceasefire, but a situation in which both sides launch offensives that don't move the needle. In this war, it could mean more civilian deaths, as stymied Russian forces launch long-range missiles on populated areas in order to break the Ukrainians' will.

In all, the conflict could drag on for weeks or months, the ISW concluded. Sustained Western military support for Ukraine will be a key factor shaping the ultimate outcome of the war.

[Josquius]

I read this today about a backlash against anti war musicians in Russia.

BBC News - War in Ukraine: Backlash in Russia against anti-war musicians
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60814306

Very interesting choice of words there. Calling these musicians arrogant and contemptuous of the people... Exactly the same language used against people who speak out against St brexit in the UK.

[Legbiter]

In all, the conflict could drag on for weeks or months, the ISW concluded.

Yeah this is going to go on for a while now most likely. Russia has to make enough contiguous gains to have something to declare victory over. 

[alfred russel]

In all, the conflict could drag on for weeks or months, the ISW concluded.

Yeah this is going to go on for a while now most likely. Russia has to make enough contiguous gains to have something to declare victory over. 

The most likely scenario for a Russian "win" is that they take the ruins of Kyiv or even just Kharkiv and then settle a peace deal that is something like status quo antebellum and call it a victory.

[FunkMonk]

Make a desert and call it peace.

[Legbiter]

The most likely scenario for a Russian "win" is that they take the ruins of Kyiv or even just Kharkiv and then settle a peace deal that is something like status quo antebellum and call it a victory.

I think they'll bite a chunk out of Ukraine, completely level it's major cities and sign some piece of paper where Ukraine makes unenforceable promises as to neutrality, etc. The problem for Russia is what happens internally when the sanctions start to really bite, those babushkas realize how many of their grandkids are not coming back and the regime security services have been decimated in Ukraine.

[Razgovory]

You know, for a guy named "Silence" he was awfully wordy. 

[viper37]

Russian threat can't deter Sweden from joining NATO, politician says

Something is happening with peace-loving Sweden...  It's crazy what happens with peaceful nations once they are directly threatened by an aggressive country.

[PDH]

I still don't discount the possibility that the supply situation gets worse in the North.  If it does, then all bets are off there.

[The Brain]

Russian threat can't deter Sweden from joining NATO, politician says

Something is happening with peace-loving Sweden...  It's crazy what happens with peaceful nations once they are directly threatened by an aggressive country.

Things are certainly happening in Sweden. Worth noting though is that NATO membership has been under discussion for decades, and that cooperation with NATO has been intimate for a very long time (making sure systems are compatible, participating in and hosting military exercises, etc). Sweden fought in Afghanistan (why we did this isn't entirely clear).

[Josquius]

Russian threat can't deter Sweden from joining NATO, politician says

Something is happening with peace-loving Sweden...  It's crazy what happens with peaceful nations once they are directly threatened by an aggressive country.

Can't he just say it like it is?
Russian threats are what would make us join NATO.

[Berkut]

Russian threat can't deter Sweden from joining NATO, politician says

Something is happening with peace-loving Sweden...  It's crazy what happens with peaceful nations once they are directly threatened by an aggressive country.

Can't he just say it like it is?
Russian threats are what would make us join NATO.

This has to be the greatest geo-political own goal in sometime.

Russia's actions are going to drive the West into *exactly* the circumstances that their actions were trying to avoid.

[Threviel]

It's a minor player in a minor party. The right in Sweden has been for Nato since forever, what counts are the social democrats and they waiver. Or perhaps not even that.

I think they believe that Nato will protect us and that we don't have to join. They are wrong, but that won't help.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think they believe that Nato will protect us and that we don't have to join. They are wrong, but that won't help.

How does one ignore the evidence before one's eyes on the news 24/7?  The rockets keep hitting Ukraine not Latvia.

[DGuller]

I wonder if there is a term for the kind of suicidal optimism practice in Europe.