Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[HVC]

Finland also withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty on landmines.

I think there's a lesson here as the US strongly pushed for an exception/get out for military necessity. That was rejected by other parties who went for the more maximalist position - particularly led by Europeans and Canada (in the UK it got rather wrapped up in the emotional spasm after the death of Princess Di ).

Now you're having many of the same countries having to withdraw because of essential security risks. As I say I think there's lessons here as this isn't the only area where there's going to be a climb-down from maximalist positions with good vibes to something a little harder edged.

If there wasn't an easy out they'd have just violated the treaty anyway. Pen is only mightier than the sword when the sword isn't at your throat.

[Josquius]

Russia is massing for a spring offensive in the north. This is pretty accepted.

Today I'm seeing rumours circling that the north Koreans introduced tuberculosis to the Russian front line - most Russians are unvaccinated and the conditions for spread are perfect, so a huge chunk of the Russians are contracting it.

If true... Oh dear.

[viper37]

Russia is massing for a spring offensive in the north. This is pretty accepted.

Today I'm seeing rumours circling that the north Koreans introduced tuberculosis to the Russian front line - most Russians are unvaccinated and the conditions for spread are perfect, so a huge chunk of the Russians are contracting it.

If true... Oh dear.

They were going for a conscription of 160 000 soldiers a few week ago.
No idea if they can recruit that many soldiers.  I suppose there'll be a of 15-16 years olds.
Equipment will also be a problem.

[Jacob]

My understanding is that that conscription is the "regular" one, and not particularly intended for the frontlines - though there'll be pressure on individuals to sign contracts to go to war.

[grumbler]

My understanding is that that conscription is the "regular" one, and not particularly intended for the frontlines - though there'll be pressure on individuals to sign contracts to go to war.

That's always been the case.  Russia is not short of conscriptable men.  It regularly has replenished its conscript ranks.  Conscripts are not sent into the "special military operation," though, for political reasons. Only contract (i.e. "volunteer") soldiers are liable for combat duties.  Because Russia isn't at war, even though it is.

[Josquius]

Isn't the rule they can't be sent abroad?
Considering the front line 99% runs through what Russia claims is Russia there's a issue there.
Plus of course the Russian military doesn't really do rules.

[Zoupa]

Conscripts have been sent into Ukraine since 24Feb2022.

[Barrister]

I thought it was that conscripts couldn't be sent to the SMO without agreeing, but that Russia would use some pretty coercive tactics to get that agreement?

[Tonitrus]

It is quaint to think that any so-called rules would be adhered to.

That being said, in a modern (I know, Russia) military, there are plenty of non-frontline jobs that need to be done. 160,000 is a very small amount to cover them.

[mongers]

Yesterday, April 4th was the 75th anniversary of it's foundation.

Chances of it making it to it's 76th birthday as an effective trans-Atlantic alliance?

[Zoupa]

It's already dead. The only reason the moskals are not in Vilnius is because they're busy getting killed by Ukrainians, not because of NATO.

Reminder: Belarus has shot down more russian drones than Poland and Romania, even when they crossed and crashed into their countries.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Belarus is actually shooting down Russian drones? 

[Zoupa]

Happened a few time yes.

https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-shoots-down-russian-shahed-drone-fighter-jet-reports-ukraine-russia-war-1945935

As opposed to Romania for example

https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-confirms-russian-drones-air-space-debris-ukraine-attacks/

[grumbler]

It is quaint to think that any so-called rules would be adhered to.

That being said, in a modern (I know, Russia) military, there are plenty of non-frontline jobs that need to be done. 160,000 is a very small amount to cover them.

It's quaint to think that political realities are "rules."

Putin doesn't send conscripts into the SMO because he doesn't want the Russian people to experience dead bodies of coscripts coming back home. The Russian people are more relaxed about the deaths of contract soldiers because those soldiers voluntarily signed the contract.

One of the reasons Ukraine attacked into Russia in the Kursk region was to capture conscripts, which the Russian government would be far more willing to trade for Ukrainian POWs (especially Mariupol survivors).  The exchange took place in mid-March.

[crazy canuck]

Chinese nationals now fighting for Russia.