Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[alfred russel]

If I were to guess at the reason for the invasion now - as opposed to 2014 - it's a combination of obvious one: that the play in 2014 to keep Ukraine in Russia's fold, but also that Putin's regime reached a limit in it's extractive policy. I'd guess that the kleptocrats have reached the limit of what they thought they could conveniently extract from Russian society and that they've also played out the amount of gain from picking victims among the oligarchs and kleptocrats and cannibalizing their wealth (i.e whoever remain were connected/ necessary enough that knocking them off the peg would be obviously disruptive). So they decided to absorb as much of Ukraine as possible to feed the kleptocrat extractive machinery. Because that's all they really know how to organize.

My perspective in 2014 is that it was Russia deciding that they had lost Ukraine, and were extracting Crimea and Donbass as an exit fee. If Ukraine was roughly 50/50 on Russia previously, then removing the two most pro russia components would obviously leave it less than 50/50 going forward even without pushing the remaining population to be less pro russia. I still think that was the only analysis that would make sense.

[Jacob]

My perspective in 2014 is that it was Russia deciding that they had lost Ukraine, and were extracting Crimea and Donbass as an exit fee. If Ukraine was roughly 50/50 on Russia previously, then removing the two most pro russia components would obviously leave it less than 50/50 going forward even without pushing the remaining population to be less pro russia. I still think that was the only analysis that would make sense.

The analysis I saw revolved around placing a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine, to prevent it from moving further into the West's orbit. Didn't work out though.

The issue with the "exit fee" analysis is that Russia didn't let Ukraine exit. Or are you saying that's the only reasonable reason for Russia's actions, even if its not the one that motivated them?

[The Brain]

Wasn't 2014/15 an attempt to push Ukraine closer? Which rarely works because physics, but the Kremlin isn't exactly the abode of intelligence.

[alfred russel]

My perspective in 2014 is that it was Russia deciding that they had lost Ukraine, and were extracting Crimea and Donbass as an exit fee. If Ukraine was roughly 50/50 on Russia previously, then removing the two most pro russia components would obviously leave it less than 50/50 going forward even without pushing the remaining population to be less pro russia. I still think that was the only analysis that would make sense.

The analysis I saw revolved around placing a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine, to prevent it from moving further into the West's orbit. Didn't work out though.

The issue with the "exit fee" analysis is that Russia didn't let Ukraine exit. Or are you saying that's the only reasonable reason for Russia's actions, even if its not the one that motivated them?

My perspective was that it was the only reasonable reason for Russia's actions. I assumed it was what motivated them until now.

[Barrister]

2014/2015 was very reactive from Russia.  The EuroMaidan protests had succeeded in removing Yanukovych from power, which angered Putin as Yanukovych was aligned with Russia, plus he didn't like the look of people in a former soviet state removing a dictator from power.  He didn't expect it to happen so I don't think there was a lot of long-term planning that went into seizing Crimea, or the Donbass.

It did somewhat succeed in keeping Ukraine from joining the West, as that is what prevented NATO from even considering Ukraine for membership.  Without the frozen conflict I don't think Ukraine would be a full NATO member, but they'd be on their way.

[Jacob]

My perspective was that it was the only reasonable reason for Russia's actions. I assumed it was what motivated them until now.

I see. Makes sense.

[Josephus]

- Internet, water are working.

Grim.

I find that hard to believe. Over here, a nasty thunderstorm is all it takes to take down my Internet 

[Sheilbh]

The video of Zelensky going through all the EU countries - when he gets to Hungary is incredible:
https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?s=20&t=dVFmp9vkBqeetbMA4TA_yg

[The Minsky Moment]

OvB, a problem with your analysis is that Russia actually has a higher standard of living than China, at least in terms of per capita GDP (on PPP terms).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Maybe that will change at some point in the future, maybe very quickly with the way things are developing. But as of now I'd say Russia > China.

PPP GDP per capita is not really a pertinent measure for national power. Russia has a big and unusual divergence between nominal and PPP GDP per capita, because costs of domestic services are low and because compared to other countries, the population is more dispersed across smaller provincial towns and cities with cheap rents and CoL.  It is may very well be true that a utility worker in Saratov or Perm has more living space and a better overall QoL than an overworked tech worker in Shenzhen; but that distinction does not translate in greater national power for Russia. Nominal GDP in contrast reflects the total value of what the economy is able to produce and command on the international market and is more pertinent for power political analysis.

One also has to consider total magnitude, direction, and composition, all of which overwhelmingly favor China. China not only has higher nominal GDP per capita, it multiplies that per capita number across a much larger number of people. While Russia has experienced zero net growth since 2008 - and is looking forward to crash of historic proportion, China's per capita income across the same period tripled and is still enjoying strong annual growth by international standards.  And while China has established itself as the world's leading manufacturer and has made good progress towards the technological frontier in many key industries, Russia is essentially a colonial economy, producing raw materials and derivatives for more advanced economies, China among them.

[alfred russel]

The video of Zelensky going through all the EU countries - when he gets to Hungary is incredible:
https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?s=20&t=dVFmp9vkBqeetbMA4TA_yg

They have elections in Hungary in ~ a week.

[crazy canuck]

The video of Zelensky going through all the EU countries - when he gets to Hungary is incredible:
https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?s=20&t=dVFmp9vkBqeetbMA4TA_yg

That is an impressive speech.

[Sheilbh]

They have elections in Hungary in ~ a week.

And there are a farly large number of Hungarians in Ukraine who Orban gave the right to vote. Basically, from what I understand - and Tamas will correct this hopefully - he gave the right to vote to Hungarians overseas who live in formerly Hungarian territory and made it very easy while making it far more difficult for diaspora Hungarians (like the young and liberal working in the rest of Europe) to vote.

I think in past elections that near Hungarian diaspora vote has gone about 95% to Orban. It'd be interesting to see if there's a shift this time.

[Jacob]

Yeah the Zelensky speech is good.

I do wonder the nuance differences between "you stand with us", "almost there", and the various other assessments. I haven't followed the contributions and statements of each nation in detail to understand the differences.

[Sheilbh]

That is an impressive speech.

All the ones he gives to these foreign parliaments or assemblies have been very impressive. Never subtle in playing to what he wants from that country and how to appeal to them, but it's not a time for subtlety. And frankly what he wants is always very clear - more weapons and a no fly zone, if that's not possible then anti-air, and EU memebrship.

I have read there's growing issues around supply for Ukrainian forces too and while I think the various shipments and promises countries have made are very impressive - I think it's probably time when we should be looking at how to actually formalise this. Something like a Lend-Lease for Ukraine and if it could be coordinated (probably through NATO and the EU, though Australia has offered to fund defensive weapons to Ukraine so them as well) that would be good and possibly a more durable footing for Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Moscow paper from today:

"NOTHING IS HAPPENING. Walk on by. A special operation is underway. No one is growing poor. The economy is growing."