Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

So apparently Russia is going ahead after all with referendums in DOnetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts about being incorporated into Russia.  Obviously these will not be free and fair votes (the referendum they held in Crimea did not have remaining with Ukraine even on the ballot), but the idea apparently is that they will then be able to characterize further Ukrainian advances as attacks on Russia herself.

Don't see anyone in the wider world being remotely fooled by this tactic, but maybe it helps with internal Russian public opinion.

I thought those "referendums" had been cancelled after the successful Ukrainian counterattack of the last few weeks. Did they finally decide to go ahead with them?

Yup.  Unless they delay them again.

I see. I read that one of the reasons for their prior cancellation, besides the Ukranian advances, was that Ukranian artillery had quite the liking for targetting the buildings and premises where the referendums were being organized and where it would take place, so understandably the promoters had more reasons to call them off.

[The Larch]

It also seems more and more likely they're going to initiate some sort of proper mobilization and declare an actual war. 

I feel like the time where that would have helped the Russians has passed.  At this point there's no one to train them and no modern equipment to give them.

I think it's less about general mobilization, and more about being able to force current soldiers to fight even if they object to going to Ukraine.

I read somewhere that Russia was changing some pieces of legislation over military units about what they could and could not do in several scenarios besides war, including "special military manouvres", or something like that, so that could be related. I'll look it up.

[Jacob]

Yeah, that to me seems an indication that Putin is looking to either go for a wider mobilization (so he's in it for the long term) or that he will escalate some other way - basically using "now they're attacking RUSSIA, we must [do whatever escalation] to defend ourselves." That also lines up with the glimpses of Russian internal facing propaganda that I've seen.

Things I could see Russia trying (whether it's effective or not):

1) Wider mobilization.

2) "This time we're serious because they're attacking Russia" nuclear blackmail.

3) Justifications for more intense crackdowns on internal dissent, refuseniks, etc.

[The Larch]

Weren't the DNR and LNR already on their way to join Russia? Right before Russia invaded they had requested joining the Russian federation already, IIRC, that's why their leaders were in Moscow to sign treaties with Russia when Putin started everything back in February.

[The Larch]

It also seems more and more likely they're going to initiate some sort of proper mobilization and declare an actual war. 

I feel like the time where that would have helped the Russians has passed.  At this point there's no one to train them and no modern equipment to give them.

I think it's less about general mobilization, and more about being able to force current soldiers to fight even if they object to going to Ukraine.

I read somewhere that Russia was changing some pieces of legislation over military units about what they could and could not do in several scenarios besides war, including "special military manouvres", or something like that, so that could be related. I'll look it up.

Ok, it was a bit different, apparently:

Russian parliament toughens punishment for crimes during military mobilisation

Russia's parliament on Tuesday approved a bill to toughen punishments for a host of crimes such as desertion, damage to military property and insubordination if they are committed during military mobilisation or combat situations.

[Barrister]

Weren't the DNR and LNR already on their way to join Russia? Right before Russia invaded they had requested joining the Russian federation already, IIRC, that's why their leaders were in Moscow to sign treaties with Russia when Putin started everything back in February.

It's always been a card Putin has threatened to play.

[Tamas]

Isn't Putin and his Defense minister supposed to be making some announcement tonight?

That news and the hasty "referendums" make me think Russia is about to escalate further, essentially Putin doubling down in the face of continued defeat and losing international support/prestige.

It's nothing new but recently a Hungarian analyst summarised this well (related to Putin but also to Orban): when you build your whole career on going relentlessly to the wall and not stopping and always making your enemies blink first, it can be very hard to spot when that stops working.

I am afraid that's what we will see. Being a relentless bully was probably what made Putin rise to where he is now and what let him keep his power for so long. Everyone he encountered rather stepped aside than risk dying fighting him. He now crossed a line and it is not going to work with Ukraine and the USA anymore. But he may very well be blind to that fact.

[Zanza]

Regarding the energy war, Germany has now reached 90% gas storage fillgrade despite Nordstream 1 being shut down and the gas price in Europe has fallen 50% compared to the August peak. On the other hand, temperatures have fallen so the heating season will begin soon. The target is still 95% fillgrade by 1st November. Two new LNG terminals still on track to be online this year.

[Syt]

Alternatively, double down on Luhansk and maybe Kherson, incorporate them into Russia and declare the operation a success with no need for further hostilities?

[Barrister]

Isn't Putin and his Defense minister supposed to be making some announcement tonight?

That news and the hasty "referendums" make me think Russia is about to escalate further, essentially Putin doubling down in the face of continued defeat and losing international support/prestige.

It's nothing new but recently a Hungarian analyst summarised this well (related to Putin but also to Orban): when you build your whole career on going relentlessly to the wall and not stopping and always making your enemies blink first, it can be very hard to spot when that stops working.

I am afraid that's what we will see. Being a relentless bully was probably what made Putin rise to where he is now and what let him keep his power for so long. Everyone he encountered rather stepped aside than risk dying fighting him. He now crossed a line and it is not going to work with Ukraine and the USA anymore. But he may very well be blind to that fact.

Yes, the speech tonight is reportedly about the referendums, maybe the legislative changes.

And totally agree - Puting has his entire career succeeded by not backing down, by doubling down when challenged.  And that has worked for him every time so far.  But it's risky because eventually it doesn't work, and when you keep just going in deeper on a losing bet eventually you lose everything.

[Josquius]

So apparently the cope of the Russians for their losses in the ne is they were planning a withdrawal to build better defence lines anyway.

Wonder if theres anything that will make them accept a loss is a loss.

[Jacob]

Alternatively, double down on Luhansk and maybe Kherson, incorporate them into Russia and declare the operation a success with no need for further hostilities?

There's one potential minor obstacle there. Ukraine - and thus the Ukrainian Army - may not agree with his assessment that there's no need for further hostilities.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Alternatively, double down on Luhansk and maybe Kherson, incorporate them into Russia and declare the operation a success with no need for further hostilities?

that's not going to stop Ukraine from kicking the Russians.

If Russia escalates further I can see NATO advisors on the ground within weeks or months.

[DGuller]

Putin announcement seems to be 30 minutes late and counting.    I guess Putin is longing for the feeling of keeping others waiting.

[HVC]

Putin announcement seems to be 30 minutes late and counting.    I guess Putin is longing for the feeling of keeping others waiting.

One can hope he tripped and fell out a window.