Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

It's kind of interesting to juxtapose how dumb a big invasion like this is for Putin with other things he's done.

This invasion:

- Is going to be tremendously expensive
- If successful, is going to net him with what is likely a long-term albatross, not a long-term increase in Russian power
- Has isolated him from virtually every country on earth, even seeing China and Turkey while not fully breaking with him, at least showing they want "distance" from his behavior
- Has led to a major reinvigoration in NATO, likely to be followed up with long term, more permanent deployments to NATO's eastern borders, and several NATO countries sending signals of a long-term commitment to building up more defense capability
- Possibility of Finland/Sweden joining NATO
- Has led to an economic severing with the West, that even were he to make peace today, is very unlikely to ever go back to the way it was within Putin's lifetime. While the specific degree of separation will likely vary based at least somewhat on how this ends, it stands to reason that Russia is facing a generational loss of access and business with Western economies.

Now compare it to non-military techniques Putin has used:

- Conversion of Hungary into a pliable pawn
- Conversion of the U.S. GOP into partial Russian pawns, with at least several politicians potentially Russian aligned to some degree (Ron Johnson, Devin Nunes, Trump--even Democrat Tulsi Gabbard has some indications)

He didn't have to fire a single bullet for those things, and got pretty big return on investment. Just highlights how folly large scale invasions are these days.

Absolutely.

I was half way through a post on this topic when I was distracted by having to take a kid to the playground... but yeah.

Putin has shown an excellent touch at his KGB competences - kompromat, subversion, gangster style intimidation, gangster style "lets you and I get rich from screwing people this way and that", and identifying social fault lines and leveraging them in various ways.

But he has shown a really poor grasp of grand strategy and, it appears, he's not particularly good at strategy either. And his grasp of economics seems weak as well. His primary tools seem to be gaslighting, bullying, and abuse and if they don't do the job he's apparently not particularly competent.

[Jacob]

For now. But if we wake up tomorrow and Russian military announces that Putin has retired to a remote dacha and tasked them with initiating new elections for his succession, I expect it will not be long before we're back to business as usual because $$$

A lot hangs in the balance these days. There may be a way back, but it's getting pretty hot and those bridges are not impervious to fire.

Putin spent weeks saying "I'm not attacking" and then he attacked. Him saying "oh, only kidding let's go back to normal" is not necessarily going to be that credible.

And, I expect unfortunately, there's going to be some atrocities and serious bloodshed before all this is over

[Sheilbh]

Absolutely.

I was half way through a post on this topic when I was distracted by having to take a kid to the playground... but yeah.

Putin has shown an excellent touch at his KGB competences - kompromat, subversion, gangster style intimidation, gangster style "lets you and I get rich from screwing people this way and that", and identifying social fault lines and leveraging them in various ways.

But he has shown a really poor grasp of grand strategy and, it appears, he's not particularly good at strategy either. And his grasp of economics seems weak as well. His primary tools seem to be gaslighting, bullying, and abuse and if they don't do the job he's apparently not particularly competent.

Also even his military operations - the apartment bombings followed by the second Chechen War, setting a trap for Saakashvili to blunder into with Georgia and Crimea/DNR/LNR. None of them "wars" in the way the West (often mistakenly) fought for the last 20 years.

But almost like intelligence operations. And sensible militarily - limited objectives with the forces necessary to achieve those objectives (plus taking advantage of your enemy's weaknesses). This is utterly different.

[Sheilbh]

Georgian ship refusing to fuel Russian vessels:
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/1498015824329728004?s=20&t=m0yzzGns0YuSadNxbiF8RA

Georgian oil tanker refuses to fuel a Russian ship. The Russians: "Common, let's leave politics aside! We just need fuel!" Georgians: "Russian ship, go f..yourself. Glory to Ukraine! And you can always use oars, so, row!"

[Josquius]

Its said that Putin has broke the one golden rule of the modern world. You don't go to war. I read a piece the other day on how dictators like him have just given up on pretending now.
But thinking on this it doesn't seem right. America has gone to war before. And Putin's past adventure in Georgia didn't get him in trouble.
So I will modify slightly. Could it be the world operates on a yellow/red card system? Or 3 strikes?
Or maybe its just that Putin did an awful job of manufacturing a cassus beli this time. It all basically came down to him sitting on the border and threatening to invade then doing it. The pretending was needed.

[The Brain]

Its said that Putin has broke the one golden rule of the modern world. You don't go to war. I read a piece the other day on how dictators like him have just given up on pretending now.
But thinking on this it doesn't seem right. America has gone to war before. And Putin's past adventure in Georgia didn't get him in trouble.
So I will modify slightly. Could it be the world operates on a yellow/red card system? Or 3 strikes?
Or maybe its just that Putin did an awful job of manufacturing a cassus beli this time. It all basically came down to him sitting on the border and threatening to invade then doing it. The pretending was needed.

You don't go to war in places that directly threaten vital interests of powers with greater resources than you.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting - via the Bellingcat guys - it seems Russian state media accidentally published the article they were suppose to publish after victory which has been web archived. Google translated:

The offensive of Russia and the new world

Petr Akopov

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later.

Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.

Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.

The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum.

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. In what borders, in what form will the alliance with Russia be fixed (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus )? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.

And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe . And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.

Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin , seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kiev ? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which happened according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools.

More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning.

Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.

Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chance of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China . If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible.

Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

China and India , Latin America and Africa , the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.

[Syt]

[The Larch]

First Russian official to voice opposition to the war?

Head of Russian delegation at UN climate summit apologises for invasion of Ukraine

The head of Russia's delegation at a major UN climate summit on Sunday apologised for Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying he could not find "any justification" for it.

Speaking at the closing session of talks attended by representatives of 195 nations, Oleg Anisimov said he apologised "on behalf of all Russians who were not able to prevent this conflict. All of those who know what is happening fail to find any justification for this attack against Ukraine," according to two people familiar with his words.

His remarks followed a moving speech by Ukrainian representative Svitlana Krakovska, who attended virtually despite the intensifying war in her home country. Most of the Ukrainian delegation had been "forced to leave their homes," she said.

The closed-door session concluded lengthy talks to finalise a major report on adapting to climate change, from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was signed off by governments worldwide.

Anisimov said he had "huge admiration for the Ukrainian delegation that was able to still do its work".

[The Larch]

Also, the economic punches keep coming for Russia:

Norway's $1.3tn oil fund to sell out of Russia

Norway's $1.3tn oil fund will sell out of its Russian investments as part of a wider package of support for Ukraine announced by prime minister Jonas Gahr Store.

Norges Bank has been told to immediately freeze all new investments in Russia, the prime minister said on Sunday, and to begin selling its Russian assets. The fund — the world's largest sovereign wealth investor — held $3.3bn in shares and bonds in the country at the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg.

The government is allocating up to two billion kroner for humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and will also provide military equipment such as helmets and protective vests.

"Russia's acts of war lead to great civilian casualties, destroy basic infrastructure and drive people into exile. We are therefore increasing our humanitarian aid in connection with the Ukraine crisis," said Gahr Store.

Norway has so far given 250m kroner in humanitarian aid as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine, it said, mainly to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the Red Cross and the UN Humanitarian Land Fund.

Gahr Store said that "Russia's attack on Ukraine has challenged European security in a way we have not seen since World War II. It challenges norms, values ​​and principles on which our democratic societies are founded."

Norway said that sanctions will also isolate Russia financially "by hitting the central bank and taking a number of Russian banks out of the Swift payment system". Norwegian airspace will be closed to Russian flights.

[celedhring]

First Russian official to voice opposition to the war?

Head of Russian delegation at UN climate summit apologises for invasion of Ukraine

The head of Russia's delegation at a major UN climate summit on Sunday apologised for Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying he could not find "any justification" for it.

Speaking at the closing session of talks attended by representatives of 195 nations, Oleg Anisimov said he apologised "on behalf of all Russians who were not able to prevent this conflict. All of those who know what is happening fail to find any justification for this attack against Ukraine," according to two people familiar with his words.

His remarks followed a moving speech by Ukrainian representative Svitlana Krakovska, who attended virtually despite the intensifying war in her home country. Most of the Ukrainian delegation had been "forced to leave their homes," she said.

The closed-door session concluded lengthy talks to finalise a major report on adapting to climate change, from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was signed off by governments worldwide.

Anisimov said he had "huge admiration for the Ukrainian delegation that was able to still do its work".

I think this poor man should try to avoid open windows in the near future.

[Jacob]

Interesting - via the Bellingcat guys - it seems Russian state media accidentally published the article they were suppose to publish after victory which has been web archived. Google translated:

This is super fascinating, and aligns pretty closely with my understanding of Putin and Russia. He's been drinking his own juice. The destabilization efforts are driven by a greater vision. And Putin's thinking was that taking Ukraine quickly would be a master stroke showing the impotence of the West (and further exacerbate the inherent contradictions), causing the whole house of cards to come crashing down.

It hasn't quite worked out like that, so far.

[Jacob]

Apparently Denmark is donating 2,700 M72 EC LAW AT weapons to Ukraine as well. Apparently it's a one-use weapon that requires about 5 minutes of instruction to use. So point and click, basically.

[celedhring]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets and Germany is rearming" in like, two days.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets" in like, two days.

maybe some American pressure coupled with some eastern european and baltic facts? Sadly we're not in "the room where it happens"