Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

A Danish journalist and a Danish photographer have both been wounded in Ukraine after their vehicle was fired on. They were treated in hospital and are recovering.

Just a reminder that journalists do real, important, and dangerous work in these times.

Well said, thanks Jacob a timely reminder that it's not a monolithic 'mainstream media' but included many brave and dedicated people.

[Legbiter]

There were photos of some heavy artillery pieces moving toward Ukraine at Belgorod, now CNN showed a tank column, it does seem like Putin is doubling down: https://twitter.com/i/status/1497610338744864770

Yeah too far in to back out now. I'm too old to think this war will end well for Ukraine or Zelinsky, there will not be some Marvel movie deus ex machina twist to save the day. The Russians will grind them down with huge casualties. Zelinsky if I had to guess will either end up dead like Imray Nagy after 1956 or taken to Moscow in chains like Alexander Dubček in 1968.

[Malicious Intent]

Germany just announced that we will deliver our own anti-tank and anti-air weapons as well. So it was just what Sheilbh said: Wait long enough for reputational damage, then do the right thing anyway.

While the numbers that were announced are promising - 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles - I wonder how fast those can be delivered, given our bureaucracy.

[Zanza]

Once Passierschein A38 has been filed in three copies, it will only take another month or so...

[mongers]

Germany just announced that we will deliver our own anti-tank and anti-air weapons as well. So it was just what Sheilbh said: Wait long enough for reputational damage, then do the right thing anyway.

While the numbers that were announced are promising - 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles - I wonder how fast those can be delivered, given our bureaucracy.

And the logistics of getting them to still fighting units of the Ukrainian army will be the hard part.

Nothing to stop the Russian air assets waiting on the other side of the border for the Ukrainian to pick up the weapon and then blowing them up.

[Sheilbh]

The good news on that front is that it's apparently now up to 27 countries including the US and many European countries that have agreed to provide Ukraine particularly with ammunition, anti-tank and anti-air weapons as well as non-military humanitarian aid.

Again (I thought this in the run-up to the crisis), I think Putin expected more western division.

[Syt]

There was also a story that Krauss-Maffei Wegmann would be able to deliver 50 Gepard anti air tanks on short notice. Though not sure how much there was to the rumor, how much red tape would need to be cleared, or how much training using them would require.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Once Passierschein A38 has been filed in three copies, it will only take another month or so...

Brooms and helmets can be anti-tank weapons if you try hard enough

[Duque de Bragança]

We're sending 200 stingers. Or at least we're trying to, something about logistical problems. Maybe we accidentally sold all our trucks along with the tanks.

Some of the Dutch Leopards 2 ended in Portugal. Don't know about the trucks. 

[celedhring]

Seeing all those pics of burning tanks I get the feeling you Brits should fire up the furnaces of Isengard and start making more of those NLAWS like they were candy. The Ukranians sure do love them.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497649185130176529

Credit where credit is due, the UK's role in this shit has been outstanding.

[Duque de Bragança]

Interesting - surprising (I'm not sure?) - move by Aliyev:

Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
10m
According to the results of my conversation with @azpresident, all @SOCARofficial gas stations in Ukraine have been instructed to provide fuel for ambulances and SES free of charge. At night we are waiting for a plane with medications from Azerbaijan.

I think he's also offered to mediate, in case intermediaries are needed between Putin and Zelensky.

For a small fee such as Nagorny-Karabakh? 

[DGuller]

We're sending 200 stingers. Or at least we're trying to, something about logistical problems. Maybe we accidentally sold all our trucks along with the tanks.

Some of the Dutch Leopards 2 ended in Portugal. Don't know about the trucks. 

Must've taken a wrong turn somewhere.

[Duque de Bragança]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Half of their coal comes from Russia, along with more than half of their natural gas and around 35% of their oil. Not to even mention other business interests. Merkel shut down their nuclear industry.

You should give some credit to Schröder too, come on. 

[Sheilbh]

Seeing all those pics of burning tanks I get the feeling you Brits should fire up the furnaces of Isengard and start making more of those NLAWS like they were candy. The Ukranians sure do love them.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497649185130176529

Credit where credit is due, the UK's role in this shit has been outstanding.

There's a lot more to do on sanctions, kleptocracy and Ukrainian refugees/Ukrainians wanting to come to the UK. And we should be getting whatever we can to Ukraine - which they say they are but I hope that's true/there's pressure on that point.

But, in general, I think we've done pretty well on this (it's been a surprise but foreign policy is one area I think the government's been very good - Ukraine, early on sanctions on Belarus and Azerbaijan, strengthened the position on China plus expanding and still expanding the BNO route for Hong Kongers to flee).

[The Larch]

We're sending 200 stingers. Or at least we're trying to, something about logistical problems. Maybe we accidentally sold all our trucks along with the tanks.

Some of the Dutch Leopards 2 ended in Portugal. Don't know about the trucks. 

Must've taken a wrong turn somewhere.

In Albuquerque. Province of Badajoz.