Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

Then there's the factor where this isn't HOI with some guy in Moscow actively ordering every unit.

The HOI AI was and is much better than actual Russian strategy and tactics, even on release. 

This is more like HOI4 1.4 AI, where there was a bug that made the AI endlessly attack you if it thought it had an advantage.  I remember a game where as Germany I sat on the border until USSR spent 12 million men attacking me without inflicting a single defeat or even a casualty.

[Jacob]

I'm far from an expert, but I'm guessing that Russia lacks the institutional and societal capabilities to do anything else at this point.

I'm guessing that they're holding back some mobiks to train and equip them to the best of their ability for 3-6-12 months, but that they can only do that in some numbers that are less than the total numbers recruited.

At the same time, they're throwing green and poorly equipped mobiks forward both because they can't allow a lull in efforts for political reasons, and because for individual mid-level leaders that's the best available option to look like you're not shirking.

Eventually (now?) the "trained & better equipped" mobiks will come to the front and we'll see how much of a difference the training and equipment makes.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't understand the military logic of conducting offensive operations in winter with half trained troops.  The other option was to hunker down.

[Jacob]

I don't understand the military logic of conducting offensive operations in winter with half trained troops.  The other option was to hunker down.

And look like you're not trying to win? And what if the Ukrainians attack and take some of the territory you've already grabbed?

Not to mention, having hundreds of thousands of poorly trained, poor morale troops who don't want to go fight sitting around doing nothing - knowing they're going to go to the front and probably die in the spring - is a fairly risky move.

[Admiral Yi]

And look like you're not trying to win? And what if the Ukrainians attack and take some of the territory you've already grabbed?

Not to mention, having hundreds of thousands of poorly trained, poor morale troops who don't want to go fight sitting around doing nothing - knowing they're going to go to the front and probably die in the spring - is a fairly risky move.

I said military logic, not political logic.  The political logic of throwing troops into the grinder in hopes of something, anything, that can be spun as a victory is more understandable.

[grumbler]

I don't understand the military logic of conducting offensive operations in winter with half trained troops.  The other option was to hunker down.

The only military logic I can see is that being on the offensive is better for morale, especially for green troops, than being on the defensive.  On the offensive, you know when and where you are going to fight.

That was one of Napoleon's great insights, and the reason why, for him, defense was just to set up the counter-offensive.  The more-or-less straightforward attacks may be due to one of his other observations: "maneuver against the Russian and he will defeat himself."

[Jacob]

I said military logic, not political logic.  The political logic of throwing troops into the grinder in hopes of something, anything, that can be spun as a victory is more understandable.

Keeping the Ukrainians under constant pressure is how Russia hopes to wear them down?

I don't know....

[Valmy]

Sure Ukraine is a much smaller country than Russia but it isn't a small country by any means. Ukraine has 40+ million people, that is about the population of France in World War 1. It is going to take a shitload of casualties to wear down a country that size.

[Sheilbh]

This video of Russian troops complaining they don't have equipment etc is doing the rounds:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625174991703531520?s=20

Point someone else made that got me thinking - is it relevant that in all of these videos (except for the elite Russian troops) none of them seem to be wearing the same kit/uniform? I have no knowledge of military stuff but it seems weird - does it actually mean something wider/more important or is that reading too much into it?

[grumbler]

This video of Russian troops complaining they don't have equipment etc is doing the rounds:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625174991703531520?s=20

Point someone else made that got me thinking - is it relevant that in all of these videos (except for the elite Russian troops) none of them seem to be wearing the same kit/uniform? I have no knowledge of military stuff but it seems weird - does it actually mean something wider/more important or is that reading too much into it?

I think that you are correct that the lack of uniformity (pun intended) is relevant.  The ad hoc nature of their gear implies that the Russian Army was not prepared to deal with the influx of new recruits.

[Josquius]

Likely in part that there's a shortage of basics. But it also implies to me they're not meant to live long enough to warrant giving proper equipment.

Interesting to see the whole appeal to the king about his corrupt advisors thing at work.

Also curious they mentioned being transferred to the dpr, looks like the annexation isn't even recognised in Russia.

[The Brain]

Swedish PM was/is in Kyiv today. Nothing big has been announced from the talks, but presumably they have had a number of things to discuss.

[mongers]

Swedish PM was/is in Kyiv today. Nothing big has been announced from the talks, but presumably they have had a number of things to discuss.

Any old S-tanks in storage?

Not the best break out tank, but a good T72 killer in all probability?

[The Brain]

Swedish PM was/is in Kyiv today. Nothing big has been announced from the talks, but presumably they have had a number of things to discuss.

Any old S-tanks in storage?

Not the best break out tank, but a good T72 killer in all probability?

AFAIK there's one still in working order at a museum. The rest (a handful) are static display pieces.

[Legbiter]

Swedish PM was/is in Kyiv today. Nothing big has been announced from the talks, but presumably they have had a number of things to discuss.

The piece of kit that Sweden has that would really help the Ukrainians would be 20 or so modern Gripens.