Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

The concern is that the Russians are doing just that and throwing raw meat at the Ukrainians, orks vs space marines style. 100 dead Russians for one dead Ukrainian is a good pay off for the Russians - they're keeping their competent soldiers behind the front lines.

I don't think so. First of all I don't think the Russians can comfortably go above a 3 Russians for 1 Ukrainian deal even if they throw their entire nation at this, and also the "this is not the real Russian army yet" excuse has been brought up since the first failures last year. Sure they might send the fresh conscripts as a probing attack but normally you send the crack troops to do the breakthrough, then use the fodder to hold ground.

[Josquius]

The concern is that the Russians are doing just that and throwing raw meat at the Ukrainians, orks vs space marines style. 100 dead Russians for one dead Ukrainian is a good pay off for the Russians - they're keeping their competent soldiers behind the front lines.

I don't think so. First of all I don't think the Russians can comfortably go above a 3 Russians for 1 Ukrainian deal even if they throw their entire nation at this, and also the "this is not the real Russian army yet" excuse has been brought up since the first failures last year. Sure they might send the fresh conscripts as a probing attack but normally you send the crack troops to do the breakthrough, then use the fodder to hold ground.

I can't remember that excuse in the initial invasion - I remember it was quite a big deal back then how the supposed elite vkd got absolutely mauled.

It seems pretty accepted that in recent months the Russians have been using bottom tier troops for initial assaults at least, often followed by better troops for breakthroughs on a small scale.

It does seem Russias "best" troops are elsewhere - The debate is why. Most likely resting and rearming for the much talked about coming offensive. Also probable internal politics at work with wagner desperate to show they can win where regulars can't. 

[Tamas]

But if those best troops exist, where have they been this past year?

[HVC]

Aren't the best* troops in effect putins praetorian guard? He can't/won't move them out



*relative term.

[Grey Fox]

The better troops don't exist. They have more troops but Russia's veteran troops remaining are few and far spread out thinly across the entire front.

[Josquius]

But if those best troops exist, where have they been this past year?

As mentioned in the original invasion they were there. Succeeding in places, being ordered to do stupid stuff and being slaughtered in others. You can't deny Russia didn't have some early success in the south and east despite madness like the convoy to Kyiv.

Note I'm not saying here that Russia has a secret NATO quality army hidden away somewhere just waiting for a convenient moment to strike and win the war overnight. But they absolutely do have better than the meat shields they've been throwing at Bakmut, troop quality isn't a binary.

At the least consider the likely difference between the Enemy at the Gates style taken straight from the conscription centre, driven to the front and handed a rifle mobiks, with those who have been getting a few months training. Even a little bit of training can make a big difference.

I do think we're due for a few Russian successes in the coming weeks. The challenge for the Ukrainians will be to absorb and minimise this, morale holding in Ukraine and the west being key. All being well it'll run out of steam not long after Bakmut. In the meanwhile I've no doubt the Ukrainians are preparing well for their own counter attack behind their lines- a lot of western arms due to come online in summer.

The only concern I'd have is quite how much is invested in Bakmut. How many Ukrainians are there? Will they be able to accomplish a smooth withdrawal when the time comes?

[The Minsky Moment]

Russia's best troops are busy hanging out with their best airframes, their best generals, and their best logistics officers.  Russia's plan all along has been to completely embarrass themselves and lead tens of thousands of men to pointless and painful deaths, to lull Ukraine into a false sense of security, and then unleash their "real" army.

Please.  The whole edifice of Russian military power is a Potemkin village inside a Potemkin village.  The Russian state rests on the dyad of nuclear weapons and the resigned credulity of their own people.

[Josquius]

Russia's best troops are busy hanging out with their best airframes, their best generals, and their best logistics officers.  Russia's plan all along has been to completely embarrass themselves and lead tens of thousands of men to pointless and painful deaths, to lull Ukraine into a false sense of security, and then unleash their "real" army.

Please.  The whole edifice of Russian military power is a Potemkin village inside a Potemkin village.  The Russian state rests on the dyad of nuclear weapons and the resigned credulity of their own people.

Way to completely ignore what I specifically said in favour of replying to what you wish I'd said.

[The Minsky Moment]

Way to completely ignore what I specifically said in favour of replying to what you wish I'd said.

I did ignore what you said.  But only because it hadn't been posted at the time I wrote mine.

Take it easy.

[grumbler]

The Russians are throwing bullet sinks into the fray because they have no choice, not because they have some strategy that requires it (else, why attack at all?).

There's no doubt that some of the "better-trained" soldiers that fled Kherson are still around, but I've seen nothing to indicate that the Russians are massing a significant reserve force for an offensive (and they couldn't hide that).

The advantage of choosing the battlefield rests with the Russians for a few months more, and their choices will bring them some tactical successes, but I see nothing to indicate that the Russians will depart from their overall trajectory into the sewer.

[Legbiter]

The Russians are throwing bullet sinks into the fray because they have no choice, not because they have some strategy that requires it (else, why attack at all?).

That's what gets me, why throw the mobiks directly into frontal assaults? It's like the Russians can't sustain them logistically so they just waste them as soon as they arrive.

[Valmy]

Ukraine and Russia were already countries with bleak futures (and their present wasn't just really great either) so it is shocking to see Russia burning through its most precious resource, the blood of its youth, at such a rate. Not to mention the many who already fled the country to avoid conscription.

Mean sure the Tsar could do this because his rural peasants were producing 8 children per couple...

[Josquius]

The Russians are throwing bullet sinks into the fray because they have no choice, not because they have some strategy that requires it (else, why attack at all?).

That's what gets me, why throw the mobiks directly into frontal assaults? It's like the Russians can't sustain them logistically so they just waste them as soon as they arrive.

It grinds down the seasoned Ukrainian troops, forces them to use their supplies, perhaps even as mad as it sounds elements of making them complacent (I've read a front line Ukranian saying this was why they do it. The Ukranians never know when they'd stop facing human wave attacks and face competent soldiers instead).
Then there's the factor where this isn't HOI with some guy in Moscow actively ordering every unit. The orders trickle down through the ranks and Russian society is one of don't think, just blindly follow orders.

[Legbiter]

Then there's the factor where this isn't HOI with some guy in Moscow actively ordering every unit.

The HOI AI was and is much better than actual Russian strategy and tactics, even on release. 

[Sheilbh]

That's what gets me, why throw the mobiks directly into frontal assaults? It's like the Russians can't sustain them logistically so they just waste them as soon as they arrive.

I suppose that's Grumbler's point - what is the alternative?

If they want to advance and get the Donbas - as seems to be the case - they can't wait to develop an entirely new way of war. As MM says their army was Potemkin village and what is left is more mobilisation.

I also think it goes to that paradox I mentioned in that RUSI post: in order to politically mobilise troops to do more than bloodily defend territory they already hold, that means politicising society in a way that could threaten the regime.

As it is it feels like the best they can hope for is that numbers can grind forward.