Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tonitrus]

Also, I don't really see any viable "sides" in a hypothetical Russian civil war...

- Random Russian regions vs. others (e.g. The Pskov Empire vs. Chelyabinsk vs. the People's Republic of Amur-Primoriya)?  Not happening.

- Their 100+ nationalities?  Pretty much all of them are either very tiny, not capable of mounting any serious threat, or close enough to ethnic "Russians" that there isn't a large difference.  Chechnya being the exception (they basically function as a feudal vassal right now).  But as said, they'd most likely pop some popcorn and wait to see which side they'll get behind in exchange for cash.

- The military?  Not really a civil war...that would be more of a coup.

- Their myriad collection of security services?  A bunch of cops won't stand up to the military.  Rosgvardia maybe...but they're probably closely tied enough to the military that they'd likely just team up.

I would put a civil war in the case of Putin's demise at 0.01%.  More likely we'll see a bunch of people fall out of windows until one comes out on top. 

But...for all we know, Putin does have a succession plan/person, and a fair chance that everyone will just get behind that bloke.  He'd never release it ahead of time though...the first rule of dictatorship is never name a successor, as that immediately takes away a lot of your power and puts your life in danger. 

[Josquius]

Expecting every ethnicity to rise up is of course daft.
But the caucasus are a known issue and I wouldn't count out the kipchaks. There's been a fair few signs of unrest there.

I'd think a civil war is over selling things. But a repeat of wagner too is a bit light. More in the domain of what wagner should have been.

[DGuller]

I think civil war is very unlikely, but severe decentralization may happen.  Ukraine had something like that, originally in 2014 the oligarchs were often big military players alongside rather pathetic Ukrainian military.

[Zoupa]

I think what happens in russia after the collapse is up to russians. The west has a dismal track record of propping up the USSR, then russia as a centralizing force. If Ukraine had kept their nuclear weapons, they would not have been invaded.

[frunk]

Pre-2023 I would have said turf wars between mercenary commanders and oligarchs was the most likely Civil War scenario.  Now I think both those groups have been weakened or completely eliminated.  The question I would have is how much of the now centralized power is transferable from Putin to someone else, or does it fracture between bureaucratic, intelligence and military leaders.

[crazy canuck]

Why would a Russian civil war be a bad thing for anyone other than the Russians?

As Jacob said, the nukes.  But also, while a Russian civil war would mostly hurt Russians...I would expect the likely victors would be the most ruthless, extreme and militaristic elements.  Not good for everyone else when that is done.   

I can't say that I feel safer with the nukes in the hands of Putin, then somebody else who might take power in Russia in a Civil War after he is gone. Also, I don't know how a civil war of some sort is avoidable after he loses power through death or other means.

There is always blood in the streets whenever a mob boss dies.

[Bauer]

A civil war scenario is like trading a somewhat predictable tyrant (Putin) for a chance of a completely unstable future one.

[Zoupa]

I think UN/US/NATO/Chinese forces could secure nuclear weapon sites/silos while the warlords fight it out.

[Razgovory]

I just finished a book on the Russian civil war.  There were no good guys.

[grumbler]

I would put a civil war in the case of Putin's demise at 0.01%.  More likely we'll see a bunch of people fall out of windows until one comes out on top. 

But if you "come out" the "top" window, have you won?

[Norgy]

Windows and Russia do not mix well.

They must have some problem with making them right, considering people fall out of them constantly.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Windows and Russia do not mix well.

maybe they should use linux instead

[Norgy]

Fewer ministers fall out Linux. FACT.

[The Minsky Moment]

Windows in Russia: taking the blue screen out of the blue screen of death.

[grumbler]

Windows in Russia: taking the blue screen out of the blue screen of death.

  I wish I'd said that.