Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Eddie Teach]

Russia controls more than 5% of Ukraine's territory. I wouldn't break out the champagne glasses just yet.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm using the rule of thumb that the Ukranian figures are for Russian casualties; so 12k killed is more like 2.4k killed 4.8k seriously wounded and 4.8k lightly wounded. Even this might be overstating their success.

The Russians themselves admitted to 500 dead a few days back though, so it is no cakewalk.

I also wonder how many desertions there have been.

[Syt]

I'm using the rule of thumb that the Ukranian figures are for Russian casualties; so 12k killed is more like 2.4k killed 4.8k seriously wounded and 4.8k lightly wounded. Even this might be overstating their success.

That's where I land on it too (plus POWs/deserters).

[Tamas]

Having a weak economy to boot and taking the position of unwilling Western ally and wishful Russian puppet, Hungary is already being hard hit by the conflict, with its currency sinking to record lows yesterday.

I am noticing that a lot of Hungarians while being worried about the (very likely) economic hit this war is going to mean for them, draw the conclusion that these troubles would end if only Ukraine would surrender. That's of course not aided by the fact that these economic troubles are squarely blamed on the EU sanctions by the government (with Russia not sharing any of the blame in their communication).

While I find that somewhat despicable, I wonder if the spines of the public of other countries will be liquefied to this degree once the economic cost starts hitting them. Hopefully not, as hopefully they will realise this is still a fair bit cheaper and considerably less destructive, than stopping Putin within NATO borders.

[Richard Hakluyt]

If Ukraine caves then Hungary will be on the frontline though. That didn't go well last time.

[Zanza]

Former Austrian foreign minister Kneissl (you know, the one where Putin attended her wedding) gave an interview on German TV. She lives in a village in French Provence these days.

She says she had to leave Austria because nobody is willing to work with her because of her closeness to Putin and doing op eds for RT, but that she doesn't regret any of her actions. She considers herself a "political refugee."

She's on the board of Russian oil company Rosneft (it seems she was offered that position after mentioning publicly that she had financial problems). She says she's under immense pressure to resign from the position, but refuses to do so. Also that her "life has already been destroyed."

Being a political refugee is not the same as being an asshole shunned by polite society. But that's something you see across the political spectrum when people expect no consequences for being assholes.

[Zanza]

I'm using the rule of thumb that the Ukranian figures are for Russian casualties; so 12k killed is more like 2.4k killed 4.8k seriously wounded and 4.8k lightly wounded. Even this might be overstating their success.

That's where I land on it too (plus POWs/deserters).

It's propaganda of course, but probably a good indication for real losses. The figure for MBTs would be 10% of the active duty tanks Russia has. Incredibly high number, but there are many, many pictures showing destroyed tanks, so even if 300 may not be true, they lost a lot...

[Admiral Yi]

Nationalism is a cancer and its the problem that gave us this war. Hate begets hate and when you've Ukrainians gloating over dead Russians and cursing the existance of Russia itself that's gold dust to the Putin regime. Best to avoid pushing those narratives and concentrate on those that focus on Ukraine the peaceful democracy defending itself against Putin's resource hungry ultra-nationalist dictatorship and its slave army.

Nationalism as an abstraction did not give us this war.  It was a choice of the Russian state.

[Tamas]

If Ukraine caves then Hungary will be on the frontline though. That didn't go well last time.

I am very, very frustrated by the public attitude there. It seems the majority is clearly pro-Ukraine (as any decent person would be) but I don't think it's even close to as overwhelming numbers as in other civilised countries.

I am tempted to start comparing it to the WW2-era government of Hungary and how they trapped themselves supporting the Nazis. The government itself were only very reluctant allies in order to pursuit their border revisionism (replaced by pursuing personal profit in this case), but in order to score good points with the Germans they left Nazi propaganda, and influence in the army, largely unchecked. So when it came to bail out of the war they had to find to their dismay that there was very little buy-in from their own armed forces.

The same thing might be happening here. Pro-government media have been taking over Russian-made propaganda for about a decade now. And even as the official state news now SLIGHTLY dialing it down (switching from Ukrainian aggression to a "both at fault and there shouldn't be sanctions" angle), their supporters don't seem to follow, and many (possibly most) of them choosing denial and siding enthusiastically with Russia against "American and Ukrainian aggression".

It is pathetic and infuriating from a nation which endured the very same treatment from Russia in 1849 (it was 100% the same - Russia could not see a successful birth of a nation next to it giving others ideas), 1945 (admittedly that one we had coming), and 1956 (done using the exact same buzzwords of removing nazis and the CIA).

[alfred russel]

I find it extremely unlikely the Russians lost 12k killed. If for nothing else, it is fully in Ukraine's interest to inflate those numbers, and even if it wasn't, it is very unlikely you can gather accurate numbers of this during wartime.

What makes me very hesitant with the stories coming out of Ukraine is that we only read about Russian casualties. If the Russians have 12k killed, then I'd guess Ukraine has at least that many military killed, and I'd bet that more civilians have died than Russian military.

Ukraine releasing russian casualties but not their own is suspicious.

[alfred russel]

The naming stuff was changing before the war. Ukraine's been asking foreign media and governments to use Kyiv etc for years - and they generally have. It's more like Mumbai or Kolkata or Derry. All that's changed is wider awareness outside of places with style guides.

That is something of a fair point but the requests are not totally analogous. This isn't a post colonial state wanting to move on from a name imposed by colonizers. It has something similar to Tyr's point on nationalism: they want the English names to be more reflective of the Ukrainian pronunciation than Russian, but of course the histories are intertwined and Ukraine has a mixed population.

I'm really resisting the renaming right now because it has a strong "freedom fries" energy. I'll probably give that up in a few days.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm really resisting the renaming right now because it has a strong "freedom fries" energy. I'll probably give that up in a few days.

Your moral stand is an inspiration Fredo.

[The Larch]

U.S. officials make rare trip to Venezuela, discuss resuming oil imports to help replace Russian fuel

So, maybe the embargo on Russian oil and gas is closer than we think? Or is this in case Putin closes the taps?

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1f-5bAy2En0

Ukrainian hot line for relatives of missing Russian soldiers.

6,000 calls, maybe can be used as a rough indication of the magnitude of killed, missing and POWs.

[The Brain]

Has Russia given detailed numbers for Ukrainian losses? I haven't seen any, but then I don't follow Russian propaganda.