Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

Any solid info on the Russian warship at Odessa supposedly damaged?

Small patrol vessel "Vasil Bykov" (project 22160), from what I saw on social media.

Let's IJN filter that: scratch three flat tops!

[Sheilbh]

Just to follow up on the angry mothers video - this (from within the last hour) strikes me as a pretty striking thing for Putin to be saying within a fortnight of this war. Now obviously he's not to be trusted so this will probably happen and this is technically just re-stating the legal position, but it fees like an indication of where public opinion is in Russia:

AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Putin says will not send conscripts or reservists to Ukraine

[OttoVonBismarck]

What Putin says and does are different things. He has a history of lying to the family of his own soldiers after they've died about where they were deployed and how they died etc--in both Syria and eastern Ukraine before this war.

Russia is a bit of an information paradox. Even under the USSR it was never as closed to outside information as was often assumed, but it has a population that by vast majorities is always inclined to believe what the regime says. Maybe out of nationalism or what have you, I don't know. Most Russians still get their news from TV, which is controlled by the State. Twitter has like 3% penetration in Russia. Telegarm has some penetration but certainly mostly among the young.

[The Brain]

Just to follow up on the angry mothers video - this (from within the last hour) strikes me as a pretty striking thing for Putin to be saying within a fortnight of this war. Now obviously he's not to be trusted so this will probably happen and this is technically just re-stating the legal position, but it fees like an indication of where public opinion is in Russia:

AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Putin says will not send conscripts or reservists to Ukraine

Official Russian position is that Ukraine doesn't exist, so...

[Jacob]

Just to follow up on the angry mothers video - this (from within the last hour) strikes me as a pretty striking thing for Putin to be saying within a fortnight of this war. Now obviously he's not to be trusted so this will probably happen and this is technically just re-stating the legal position, but it fees like an indication of where public opinion is in Russia:

AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Putin says will not send conscripts or reservists to Ukraine

... unless, of course, they volunteer. And who wouldn't volunteer for the great glory of the motherland, especially if there people up the chain with quotas to fill?

[Sheilbh]

What Putin says and does are different things. He has a history of lying to the family of his own soldiers after they've died about where they were deployed and how they died etc--in both Syria and eastern Ukraine before this war.

Absolutely - my point is it seems interesting that he needs to say this.

Russia is a bit of an information paradox. Even under the USSR it was never as closed to outside information as was often assumed, but it has a population that by vast majorities is always inclined to believe what the regime says. Maybe out of nationalism or what have you, I don't know. Most Russians still get their news from TV, which is controlled by the State. Twitter has like 3% penetration in Russia. Telegarm has some penetration but certainly mostly among the young.

Sure - I don't dispute any of that. But even absolute control of information cannot counteract a war that is not officially happening. People go missing and don't go home - some go home with clear physical or mental wounds. This happened in Afghanistan when Russia had far greater control over information - I was listening to an expert who'd focused on Afghanistan noting that that invasion wasn't announced there was just two column inches in the military paper with a headling about Afghan-Soviet relations "turning a new page".

I think you answer why - most people get their news from TV and the regime controls that (absolutely now they've closed down the last independent channels). But I don't think this is how a regime that was confident in how popular this war would be behaves. So far they've banbed the use of the word war, shut down almost all the remaining independent media, made it a crime (punishable by 15 years imprisonment) to protest the war or to spread news that is not sourced from the Ministry of Defence and are now publicly repeating the law that no conscripts or reservists will be sent to fight. To me that sounds like a regime that is nervous about public support - that doesn't mean I think there's going to be a revolution or anything like that any time soon, just that given their control of information they aren't using it to rally support but to try and disguise the fact its hapening at all.

... unless, of course, they volunteer. And who wouldn't volunteer for the great glory of the motherland, especially if there people up the chain with quotas to fill?

Yeah absolutely - my point is why is he repeating what is already the law? My suspicion is it's linked to angry mothers confronting governors and why you can't call it a "war" in the media.

[PJL]

Just to follow up on the angry mothers video - this (from within the last hour) strikes me as a pretty striking thing for Putin to be saying within a fortnight of this war. Now obviously he's not to be trusted so this will probably happen and this is technically just re-stating the legal position, but it fees like an indication of where public opinion is in Russia:

AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Putin says will not send conscripts or reservists to Ukraine

I would have thought that was proof that they are going to be doing that soon, rather than the opposite. Everything they have said recently they have gone and done the opposite shortly afterwards. And of course never believe anything until has been offiically denied.

[grumbler]

Just randomly saw a video of the former head of MI6 speaking, found it quite interesting, especially in that he agrees with me on the possible missteps being taken with anti-Russian propeganda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw5lzKVn3sc

I just watched this and noticed that he said nothing whatsoever that could be considered an agreement with your position on "anti-Russian propaganda."  In fact, he said nothing whatsoever about anti-Russian propaganda.

[Legbiter]

At the same time, the material underpinnings of his war machine - and his entire state - are on incredibly soft footing.

The Russians have committed the bulk of their forces now, revamped the invasion plan on the spot and are now advancing, but rather slowly. But they'll be pretty beat up after 3 more weeks of intense combat.

[Jacob]

At the same time, the material underpinnings of his war machine - and his entire state - are on incredibly soft footing.

The Russians have committed the bulk of their forces now, revamped the invasion plan on the spot and are now advancing, but rather slowly. But they'll be pretty beat up after 3 more weeks of intense combat.

I'm not predicting that they'll fail to take Ukraine (but neither am I saying they'll fail - though that would be spectacular).

I think their real problem is that the manufacturing capacity is - I believe - in fairly dire straights so they can't replace or actively maintain their assets for a prolonged period of time.

Basically it's the same thing we've been saying for a while - if Putin takes Ukraine, he'll have a devil of a time to hold  it - only accelerated because he's going to be trying to maintain his armed forces with an autarchic economy in close to free fall. That, to me, is not something that supports the idea that Putin is unbreakable.

I'm not making predictions here, but Putin does not seem to be on a solid footing.

[Jacob]

Conversely, I think the biggest potential weak spot for the West is the chance of Trump (or someone like him) getting into power with a coterie of followers compromised by and/ or sympathetic to Russia. Which, while a real risk, is still some years out.

[alfred russel]

So assuming there isn't a diplomatic breakthrough, I imagine the Russians are going to try to take Kiev. I assume they will succeed in the same way the coalition of the willing or whatever we are calling it took baghdad -- well probably not even that level of control.

That said, if that comes to pass, what kind of casualties do you think we are talking about? Including civilians: 50k? 100k?

[11B4V]

Ukraine reports another

https://www.rawstory.com/russian-general-killed/

[HVC]

Snipers? Drones? Or is Putin's super secret plan to get rid of all his generals

[mongers]

Footage from Al Jazeera in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1500853652671860739?t=RqlX2M34BsE0lssYwEjB-w&s=19

If that's the Charles Stratford piece, it's a powerful condemnation of Putin.

He's a excellent journalist, but I think he and his team are taking a lot of risks in Eastern and dealing with the fluid frontlines in central/southern Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin told the world repeatedly Russia would never invade Ukraine, Kharkiv is a terrified testimony to his lie.