Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

How is this dissimilar?

I don't get your meaning.
There's lots of differences and similarities.

[celedhring]

I'm not optimistic, to be honest. If war is about destroying your enemy's will to fight, Putin's unbreakable - a failure in this war will collapse his regime, so he will do anything to avoid that outcome.

Why do you think Putin is unbreakable?

Yes, he's spinning hard but he has egg all over his face. He looks like an idiot with his "quick war, they'll welcome us with flowers." The reputation of the Russian armed forces have taken a significant blow... though I suppose it's not impossible to turn that around.

At the same time, the material underpinnings of his war machine - and his entire state - are on incredibly soft footing.

I mean, I think you're right, Putin isn't going back down himself but that doesn't mean he can't break.

My belief is that the costs of defeat for him (removal and possible death) are so high that he'll keep raising the bet unless there's some kind of palace coup.

Granted, Otto brings up a very good point in the fact that he obviously values his legacy.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm not a military expert, but I keep hearing about encirclements, and the fact is that these are not WWII-sized armies. How effectively can Russia create pockets with the kind of manpower they brought? I read an analyst claiming that they don't even have enough people to fully encircle Kiev's urban perimeter.

If a lot of Ukrainian formations are stuck in the far east of the country with Russian troops controlling key roads to the west, it's a huge problem even if there are gaps.  Practically it will be hard to get those formations out intact and the Ukrainians will have few means to resupply or sustain them.

[FunkMonk]

I'm not a military expert, but I keep hearing about encirclements, and the fact is that these are not WWII-sized armies. How effectively can Russia create pockets with the kind of manpower they brought? I read an analyst claiming that they don't even have enough people to fully encircle Kiev's urban perimeter.

If a lot of Ukrainian formations are stuck in the far east of the country with Russian troops controlling key roads to the west, it's a huge problem even if there are gaps.  Practically it will be hard to get those formations out intact and the Ukrainians will have few means to resupply or sustain them.

I mean, surely the Ukrainians understand this, so either they are betting they can stop the Russians and keep their west-east lines of communication open or they are planning to allow their eastern forces to dissolve into the countryside and act as an organized partisan force east of the Dnieper.

It probably makes more sense militarily to abandon the east and withdraw everyone across the Dnieper, but then you have to eat the huge political cost of giving the Russians half the country. Everything seems bad so they must be deciding which option is the least worst to take.

[DGuller]

I wonder why the southern front has been the most problematic for Ukraine.  You'd think that Crimea would be the easiest border with Russia to seal off.

[Josquius]

I remember back before the invasion started a lot was written about how Russias plan was to bring the Ukranian army to battle and destroy it.

It strikes me the Ukrainians kmow this and will be avoiding it.

[The Brain]

I wonder why the southern front has been the most problematic for Ukraine.  You'd think that Crimea would be the easiest border with Russia to seal off.

I think Ukraine likely feels it has to focus on defense of Kyiv and Kharkiv and stuff.

[The Brain]

I remember back before the invasion started a lot was written about how Russias plan was to bring the Ukranian army to battle and destroy it.

It strikes me the Ukrainians kmow this and will be avoiding it.

Seems to be plenty of battle. As for who's getting the most destroyed, I guess we'll find out.

[PDH]

I wonder why the southern front has been the most problematic for Ukraine.  You'd think that Crimea would be the easiest border with Russia to seal off.

The soldiers now holding Mykolaiv said they hadn't been put on war readiness before the invasion - unthinkable unless you realize what a mess Ukraine was before the war.  They abandoned their heavy armor and retreated.  Now they have held off the Russians for a few days there with regular troops and territorial defense units.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-beats-russia-mykolaiv.html

In all honesty, holding the Crimean pinchpoints would have been tough anyway - the Russian forces were closest to their supply lines, positions would have been zeroed in for artillery, and any AAA umbrella would have covered the assaults.

[Jacob]

I wonder why the southern front has been the most problematic for Ukraine.  You'd think that Crimea would be the easiest border with Russia to seal off.

I heard it's because there's no rasputitsa in the South. Basically, no mud to impede Russian progress and fuck up their logistics.

Probably more to it than that, but it could be a factor.

[The Brain]

I wonder why the southern front has been the most problematic for Ukraine.  You'd think that Crimea would be the easiest border with Russia to seal off.

I heard it's because there's no rasputitsa in the South. Basically, no mud to impede Russian progress and fuck up their logistics.

Probably more to it than that, but it could be a factor.

Sad love machine noises.

[alfred russel]

It probably makes more sense militarily to abandon the east and withdraw everyone across the Dnieper, but then you have to eat the huge political cost of giving the Russians half the country. Everything seems bad so they must be deciding which option is the least worst to take.

If they abandon the east I wonder if they aren't giving away the whole ballgame. I just can't imagine Russia is going to try to occupy the whole country up to and including Lviv.

[Sheilbh]

Given Tarkovski's stance on war that one is extremely ridiculous.

I agree about not to give the time of the day to Putin stooges, though. The whole "if I speak up I will have trouble at home" doesn't kinda work with me. When facing this kind of naked aggression people should take a stand, particularly if you're well-off and mainly working internationally.

Not to entirely derail the thread but I think there's an element of an international relations "cancel culture" to this The number of companies who have stopped working in Russia is extraordinary compared to previous crises or boycott movements - like apartheid South Africa - at an incredible pace.

Plus there is a weird Russophobic side to this which I find really baffling. For me the point of cultural sanctions is to cut Russia off from the world - no football games, no film festivals with Hollywood stars (except for Depardieu and Seagal), no theatre/ballet/orchestra tours etc - because regimes draw prestige and credibility from those events. It is not to cut ourselves off from Russian culture - unless there is a specific reason to do so (for example if an author wrote a big piece about how great the invasion is) - and it is mind-numbingling inane to see universities cancel seminars on Dostoyevsky or Tarkovsky festivals. If, at the height of the Cold War, we can still engage with Shostakovich, Tarkovsky, Grossman etc; or during the apartheid bocott we read Gordimer and Coetzee - we can still engage with Russian art. It's not infectious - and the only people hurt by that stuff are ourselves

Separately - fairly extraordinary video of angry mothers confronting a regional governor (in Siberia):
https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1500633861012828163?s=20&t=tSSBuvrZnBpDfT8JRtoMpA

From what I understand there was a lot of this during Afghanistan and I believe historians/analysts think it was pretty important. I mentioned before but in Afghanistan the Soviets suffered 15,000 casualties over about a decade. In this war they will surpass that within a year, even using the Kremlin's figures. The stuff about soldiers thinking it was exercises and only having three days rations seems to come up a lot.

[The Brain]

Any solid info on the Russian warship at Odessa supposedly damaged?

[Maladict]

Any solid info on the Russian warship at Odessa supposedly damaged?

Small patrol vessel "Vasil Bykov" (project 22160), from what I saw on social media.