Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Savonarola]

Absolut are set to make a killing

I just saw one of the local bars here had renamed the Moscow Mule the Swedish Mule and now make it with Absolut rather than Stolichnaya.

Also I see that Stolichnaya is now rebranding as Stoli.

[The Minsky Moment]

Who is ASBMilitary?  I see them posting all kinds of Russian propaganda.

Trying to pass off a 15 year old laptop running an OS that MSFT ceased to support in 2017 as a NATO IT asset is so weak it seems more likely they are a false flag to discredit pro-Russian propaganda.

[viper37]

The point is simply that though much is made of Ukraine "winning" on propeganda, its likely also helping to feed Russian propeganda in a way that is counter productive for Ukraine.

If this was your point, why in the world did you start off by calling it semi fascy?

Because it is?

How is this dissimilar?

[The Brain]

WTF kind of rifle is that supposed to be? Worst German Mauser ever.

[Berkut]

Hey Yi, thought of you when I read this:

U.S. officials say Ukrainian leaders have told them that American and other allied weaponry is making a difference on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers armed with shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles have several times in the past week attacked a mileslong convoy of Russian armor and supply trucks, helping stall the Russian ground advance as it bears down on Kyiv, Pentagon officials said. Some of the vehicles are being abandoned, officials said, because Russian troops fear sitting in the convoy when fuel-supply tanks are being targeted by the Ukrainians, setting off fireballs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html?referringSource=articleShare

[Jacob]

That guy has some rather interesting threads on Russia, Ukraine etc. - no idea how correct the information he gives is, but he makes good narratives:

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

Interesting reading, thanks for sharing

[The Minsky Moment]

Lots of media focus on the Kyiv sector for obvious reasons but it seems like the bulk of Russian forces are still engaged in the east and south. If the Russians can maintain pressure the Ukrainian army is going to face a difficult decision soon whether to cede a lot of ground or risk a big encirclement.

[celedhring]

I'm not a military expert, but I keep hearing about encirclements, and the fact is that these are not WWII-sized armies. How effectively can Russia create pockets with the kind of manpower they brought? I read an analyst claiming that they don't even have enough people to fully encircle Kiev's urban perimeter.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not a military expert, but I keep hearing about encirclements, and the fact is that these are not WWII-sized armies. How effectively can Russia create pockets with the kind of manpower they brought? I read an analyst claiming that they don't even have enough people to fully encircle Kiev's urban perimeter.

Their 150,000 (and not even the majority of that is even in Kyiv area) man force can't come anywhere close to a WW2 style encirclement of a city the size of Kyiv, however they can certainly do a sort of encirclement that makes it fairly dangerous and difficult to go in or out of the city to the point most civilians won't be able to do it. That's not the same as the sort of like "solid wall of men and death" encirclements in WWII ala Stalingrad or such.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

On one side I don't want to be optimistic at all regarding the chances of the Ukrainians, but on the other hand it does seem (especially with all the material and volunteers streaming in, coupled with the heroic resistance of the  Ukrainian nation) that there's this glimmer of hope of victory.

I wonder if this is how our grandparents felt somewhere around 1942/43, in sofar they were aware of the situation.

[celedhring]

I'm not optimistic, to be honest. If war is about destroying your enemy's will to fight, Putin's unbreakable - a failure in this war will collapse his regime, so he will do anything to avoid that outcome.

[Syt]

Footage from Al Jazeera in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1500853652671860739?t=RqlX2M34BsE0lssYwEjB-w&s=19

[crazy canuck]

On one side I don't want to be optimistic at all regarding the chances of the Ukrainians, but on the other hand it does seem (especially with all the material and volunteers streaming in, coupled with the heroic resistance of the  Ukrainian nation) that there's this glimmer of hope of victory.

I wonder if this is how our grandparents felt somewhere around 1942/43, in sofar they were aware of the situation.

Afghanistan circa 1979 is probably more apt

It seems unlikely Ukrainians are going to sit passively by even if Russia wins the initial shooting war.  And the supply lines are much less complicated to support them from the West.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not optimistic, to be honest. If war is about destroying your enemy's will to fight, Putin's unbreakable - a failure in this war will collapse his regime, so he will do anything to avoid that outcome.

Eh, Putin isn't half the man Stalin was in terms of willingness to sacrifice and even Stalin backed down when it made sense. Destroying the will to fight isn't the only aspect of a war or the only determinant of its outcome. Wars have costs, some costs cannot be easily borne. Even an autocrat who does not want to lose face, may eventually conclude a war that is costing astronomically more than he expected is not worth continuing. Remember that the very fact Putin can create his own reality gives him more "outs" of this war than most people are appreciating. No matter what out he takes, he can/will claim victory. I think the whole narrative that anything less than total victory for Putin is the end of his regime is untrue.

Putin has big ambitions for Russia, that he values enough that he has made his country a pariah nation over them, at a certain point the war in Ukraine could actually be imposing such high costs that it would imperil the further ambitions Putin has for Russia and even set it up to grow weaker over time. That may be a cost he isn't willing to bear, as it works at cross purpose to his overall goals and mindset.

[Jacob]

I'm not optimistic, to be honest. If war is about destroying your enemy's will to fight, Putin's unbreakable - a failure in this war will collapse his regime, so he will do anything to avoid that outcome.

Why do you think Putin is unbreakable?

Yes, he's spinning hard but he has egg all over his face. He looks like an idiot with his "quick war, they'll welcome us with flowers." The reputation of the Russian armed forces have taken a significant blow... though I suppose it's not impossible to turn that around.

At the same time, the material underpinnings of his war machine - and his entire state - are on incredibly soft footing.

I mean, I think you're right, Putin isn't going back down himself but that doesn't mean he can't break.