Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

Christo Grozev (executive director of Bellingcat) shared what is allegedly from an FSB insider. Interesting reading (via google translate).

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569?t=DwDWtYEAOxg-37pEefcOSw&s=09

Well, that's a grim read. I agree with Grozev that it feels authentic given how long and rambling it is, but we'll see...

[Jacob]

Well, that's a grim read. I agree with Grozev that it feels authentic given how long and rambling it is, but we'll see...

The bit about global famine was grim, yeah.

My take on the discussion about nuclear weapons was that the author considered nuclear armageddon likely, and the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine is an unlikely scenario (i.e. I thought the scenario was examined to be dismissed). Though, of course, it's easy for nuance to get lost in google translate and with a lack of knowledge of the larger context.

I thought the bits about Kadyrov and Syria particularly interesting.

[Jacob]

Another interesting twitter thread (by Phillips P. O'Brien - Prof. of Strategic Studies at St. Andrews University) on Russian logistics: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213948834009089

TLDR they'er awful. The thread even include a video of Russians shipping civilian trucks to the front because - one would presume - they are running out of military trucks. This is is not a positive sign for the Russian war effort.

[Josquius]

It's amazing the amount they are just abandoning. I wonder if the Ukrainian civilian pop are starting to make use of ex Russian army lorries.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

egg liqueur and romulan ale?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Probably blue curacao and advocaat.

Sympathetic as I am to the Ukranian plight I don't think I will be making this drink.

[Zanza]

Supposedly Blue Curacao with peach.

[celedhring]

Too fruity for my taste, but not a terrible combination.

[Josquius]

Well, that's a grim read. I agree with Grozev that it feels authentic given how long and rambling it is, but we'll see...

The bit about global famine was grim, yeah.

My take on the discussion about nuclear weapons was that the author considered nuclear armageddon likely, and the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine is an unlikely scenario (i.e. I thought the scenario was examined to be dismissed). Though, of course, it's easy for nuance to get lost in google translate and with a lack of knowledge of the larger context.

I thought the bits about Kadyrov and Syria particularly interesting.

I didn't see nuclear war mentioned and checking the comments the worldwide famine stuff is a little overstated... But not by much. Seems from less winter we can expect food prices to go up a fair bit and the genuine risk of famine in some developing countries. Which is bad enough alone and could lead to more war.
Hope some action is being taken on this - America and Canada ordering the planting of more wheat for instance

[Josephus]

Tonight I made chicken Kiev. It was very nice. 

Shouldn't it be chicken Kviv?

[Eddie Teach]

Chicken Lwow.

[Threviel]

Tonight I made chicken Kiev. It was very nice. 

Shouldn't it be chicken Kviv?

Kyckling Könugård.

[jimmy olsen]

Another interesting twitter thread (by Phillips P. O'Brien - Prof. of Strategic Studies at St. Andrews University) on Russian logistics: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213948834009089

TLDR they'er awful. The thread even include a video of Russians shipping civilian trucks to the front because - one would presume - they are running out of military trucks. This is is not a positive sign for the Russian war effort.

Another convoy of Russian fuel trucks anhilated. How much longer can this go on before complete logistical collapse?

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500422445697843206

Artillery battery destroyed
https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500435301524770818

[Duque de Bragança]

Tonight I made chicken Kiev. It was very nice. 

Shouldn't it be chicken Kviv?

Kyckling Könugård.

Gallus Gallus Kioviana.

[Threviel]

Been reading up on the logistics. The Russian logistical train seems to be in horrible condition and there are reports that they've started to send civilian trucks to Ukraine, presumably further hindering their off-road capabilities.

The offensive seems to slowly grind to a halt, the war seems to develop into sieges of Kiev, Charkov, Zaporizjzja and Mykolaiv, perhaps Dnipropetrovsk. As long as those places hold the Russians will have gigantic logistical dificulties to go around them. Also I will never learn to spell these places.

Everything points to this war being longer than anticipated, unless the Russians fold it might last months or even years. But for that to happen the west need to get supplies to Ukraine, mostly light weapons. There are 44 million Ukrainians, potentially there's an army of 4-5 million soldiers to fight the Russians, but they need equipment, everything from uniforms to weapons.

And they need logistical support, we need to supply fuel and trucks to the Ukrainians to increase their longevity. No doubt western production outproduces Russia to a huge margin, but have we started our factories? I've read precious little of what the US is supplying, what are they sending? Have anyone heard anything about this kind of stuff?

And does anyone know what the Russian are capable of? How many trucks can their factories produce? How many planes?