Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

The continued push for a no-fly zone by Ukraine is very smart.

I am sure at the very least their leadership understand it would mean starting WW3, and what exactly they have to lose with that?

And they may rightly think the Western public may start pushing their politicians for it, since it sounds straightforward and safe: just tell Russians they can't fly, and it's done.

So, I think, it's a smart PR way of pushing for military intervention by Europe.

I think it may happen if the war drags on long enough, and enough pictures of suffering reach Western TV screens and social media accounts.

Realistically, though, I doubt it would probably be labeled differently, though. A "civilian safe zone" or "refugee sanctuary" or what have you where Ukrainians can be displaced in Ukraine (rather than in countries not Ukraine), and cover Western parts of the country only, assuming the Russians have too little interest in actually bothering to occupy those. Kind of like the no fly zones that used to be in Iraq.

Even so, I would hope that if it comes to this, that it's done carefully, and with full use of what back channels still exist.

[Syt]

Austria can into relevancy!

Russian foreign ministry has condemned Chancellor Nehammer and foreign minister (and short term chancellor) Schallenberg. They complain about "one-sided, inflammatory statements", and that they use "emotional, anti-Russian rhetoric."

Russia will keep this in mind for the future, because it casts serious doubts on Austrian neutrality.



(Austrian politicians, largely, said that Austria is militarily neutral, but not necessarily politically if there's clear, one-sided aggression. Nehammer, asked if Austria was too friendly with Russia in the past, said that there may have been misjudgments in the past, and that supposed security concerns in Russia did not justify a war of aggression. Also that Putin apparently wants to reinstate the Soviet Union. He also offered Austria as possible location for UA/RU negotiations and summits.

[Syt]

 

[Sheilbh]

I don't see it happening - but as Michael Weiss pointed out, it makes sense for the Ukrainians to push it and then get drones and fighters as a "least we can do" (but also the most) compromise.

[Jacob]

Yes, you're right, people are saying that it's a footage from a stabilized drone camera.  The theory is that the civilian drone operator and the MANPAD operator are working in tandem.

That seems really ballsy. It is quite ballsy to be shooting down Russian helicopters by itself, but coordinating with a drone operator just adds a level of difficulty.

I don't know if it's ballsy... it might be super sensible. Your basic drone flies up to spot the air traffic, giving information on the position to units out of sight and out of the line of fire?

[Jacob]

Saw a thing that said that Russia's invasion force has no road-building or repair logistics, which is going to be a bit of a problem for them as Ukrainian roads are disintegrating under the strain of the heavy threads that are using them, the strain of combat on them, and of course active destruction to hamper Russian mobility.

The same things said that the evidence (satellite imagery) indicates that Russia's follow up force that they're staging right now similarly does not have any such logistics support.

I don't know if it's true, but if it is it doesn't speak highly of Russian organizational capability.

Which then gets me to think how extraordinary it is there is all this visibility on the Russian operations to allow this kind of information be disseminated so rapidly.

[mongers]

Mastercard and Visa to stop operations and transactions within Russia.

[Jacob]

Mastercard and Visa to stop operations and transactions within Russia.

As a friend said: they wanted to go back to Soviet times....

[mongers]

There are some cracks appearing in the Russian political monolith, yesterday a Senator in the Russian upper house, Lyudmila Narusova said of a conscript unit being withdrawn from Ukraine, that it's original strength was 100 but only 4 had survived.

[jimmy olsen]

Interesting interview of Ukranian soldiers who routed a full battalion and captured 30 vehicles in a counterattack outside of Kharkiv

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t7enbg/ukraines_93rd_mechanized_brigade_captured_30/?utm_term=1765959820&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_source=embed&utm_name=&utm_content=header

[Syt]

Austria can into relevancy!

Russian foreign ministry has condemned Chancellor Nehammer and foreign minister (and short term chancellor) Schallenberg. They complain about "one-sided, inflammatory statements", and that they use "emotional, anti-Russian rhetoric."

Russia will keep this in mind for the future, because it casts serious doubts on Austrian neutrality.

The Austrian foreign ministry has actually bothered to release a counter statement.



Translation:

Austria is a militarily neutral country. But when it comes to observing international law, we're never politically neutral. We're by no means neutral towards violence and will never be silent when the sovereignty, territorial integrity or independence of a country is attacked. We will stand against it always and on all levels. Observing international law, especially international humanitarian law, is our red line.

Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs.

[Zanza]

[Solmyr]

There are some cracks appearing in the Russian political monolith, yesterday a Senator in the Russian upper house, Lyudmila Narusova said of a conscript unit being withdrawn from Ukraine, that it's original strength was 100 but only 4 had survived.

To put that in context, Narusova is the ex-wife of Anatoly Sobchak, early 1990s mayor of St. Petersburg who originally put Putin in a position of political power in his city. So Narusova is a big deal as Putin's friends go.

[Jacob]

Christo Grozev (executive director of Bellingcat) shared what is allegedly from an FSB insider. Interesting reading (via google translate).

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569?t=DwDWtYEAOxg-37pEefcOSw&s=09

[Syt]