Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Things bode well for Ukraine militarily imo.
In terms of human suffering war is always shit, especially with Russia for an enemy, but purely militarily... Well. It's basically Vietnam or Afghanistan, except unlike in those situations Ukraine has a very friendly western neighbour and good connections to them through which to get resupply.
As long as Poland keeps pumping arms into Ukraine its looking unlikely Russia will win, provided Ukrainian morale can remain up (the big if) and its government remains united and opposed to the invasion.


Which... Is why things don't bode so well for the world it could be seen. I could see Putin settling for a minor victory. But accepting anything short of a victory? The longer Ukraine holds on the more they'll be unwilling to accept a even paper defeat too.

[Eddie Teach]

Why do Swedes kick chicken?

[mongers]

There are still cohesive Ukranian mobile unts about, yesterday on Al Jazeera the correspodent was returning to Zhizokzia, you know the city with 3 z's in the name, and going the other way they filmed a convoy of Ukrainian T72s and APC heading south.

[Josquius]

There are still cohesive Ukranian mobile unts about, yesterday on Al Jazeera the correspodent was returning to Zhizokzia, you know the city with 3 z's in the name, and going the other way they filmed a convoy of Ukrainian T72s and APC heading south.

Nice to know, but also shame on Al jazeria for showing that.

[jimmy olsen]

There are still cohesive Ukranian mobile unts about, yesterday on Al Jazeera the correspodent was returning to Zhizokzia, you know the city with 3 z's in the name, and going the other way they filmed a convoy of Ukrainian T72s and APC heading south.

I read that not one Ukrainian  T-72 as been photographed destroyed/captured. That doesn't mean there haven't been any, but it seems they're armored reserved is still in being.

[celedhring]

The whole civilian vehicles being dragged to the front thing is hilarious. Hopefully it means Russia can't sustain this war for long.

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1500417894491983876

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Well, that's a grim read. I agree with Grozev that it feels authentic given how long and rambling it is, but we'll see...

The bit about global famine was grim, yeah.

My take on the discussion about nuclear weapons was that the author considered nuclear armageddon likely, and the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine is an unlikely scenario (i.e. I thought the scenario was examined to be dismissed). Though, of course, it's easy for nuance to get lost in google translate and with a lack of knowledge of the larger context.

I thought the bits about Kadyrov and Syria particularly interesting.

I didn't see nuclear war mentioned and checking the comments the worldwide famine stuff is a little overstated... But not by much. Seems from less winter we can expect food prices to go up a fair bit and the genuine risk of famine in some developing countries. Which is bad enough alone and could lead to more war.
Hope some action is being taken on this - America and Canada ordering the planting of more wheat for instance

apparently the famine thing is not only because of the grain, but also because both Russia and Byelorussia are big exporters of fertilizer. If that isn't going out too it'll have effects on those parts of the world where there fertilizers are needed.
So depending on how severe the shortages are we may see effects like in 2011

[Legbiter]

The whole civilian vehicles being dragged to the front thing is hilarious. Hopefully it means Russia can't sustain this war for long.

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1500417894491983876

Jesus.

[Admiral Yi]

Man I've seen plenty of video of knocked out and abandoned Russian gear.

Makes some sense Russia is having success in the south, since they can presumably supply by sea.

[Josquius]

Saw a funny comment.
"Does Russia have a war against America next week or something? Their invasion of Ukraine looks like when Man Utd have an FA Cup tie against a non league side and send out all the academy players"

[Syt]

A prominent member of the Brazilian right is facing calls to resign after he was exposed in leaked audio messages making a succession of callous and misogynistic remarks about Ukrainian refugees during a purportedly humanitarian mission to the recently invaded country.

Arthur do Val, a São Paulo congressman and former supporter of Brazil's rightwing president, Jair Bolsonaro, made a three-day trip to the region last week, supposedly to raise awareness of the human cost of Vladimir Putin's attack.

On Friday, Brazilian media published audio messages in which Do Val spoke in highly offensive terms about Ukrainian refugees.

In one recording, the politician says: "I've just crossed the border on foot between Ukraine and Slovakia. Bro, I swear to you ... I've never seen anything like it in terms of beautiful girls. The refugee queue ... it's like 200metres-long or more of just total goddesses ... It's some incredible shit ... The queue outside Brazil's best nightclub ... doesn't come close to the refugee queue here."

In a second excerpt Do Val says: "Let me tell you, they're easy because they're poor."

[Tamas]

I enjoy signs of Russian ineptitude as anyone but I think we are just about starting the really ugly phase. There has been bad scenes of people trying to flee what seems to be a large north-west suburb of Kyiv while being shot at by Russians, and evacuation of Mariupol failed a second time.

[Jacob]

Been reading up on the logistics. The Russian logistical train seems to be in horrible condition and there are reports that they've started to send civilian trucks to Ukraine, presumably further hindering their off-road capabilities.

The offensive seems to slowly grind to a halt, the war seems to develop into sieges of Kiev, Charkov, Zaporizjzja and Mykolaiv, perhaps Dnipropetrovsk. As long as those places hold the Russians will have gigantic logistical dificulties to go around them. Also I will never learn to spell these places.

Everything points to this war being longer than anticipated, unless the Russians fold it might last months or even years. But for that to happen the west need to get supplies to Ukraine, mostly light weapons. There are 44 million Ukrainians, potentially there's an army of 4-5 million soldiers to fight the Russians, but they need equipment, everything from uniforms to weapons.

And they need logistical support, we need to supply fuel and trucks to the Ukrainians to increase their longevity. No doubt western production outproduces Russia to a huge margin, but have we started our factories? I've read precious little of what the US is supplying, what are they sending? Have anyone heard anything about this kind of stuff?

And does anyone know what the Russian are capable of? How many trucks can their factories produce? How many planes?

Not sure how long the Russian factories can continue being productive without any foreign replacement parts for their machinery, without any foreign components, and without being able to pay their workers.

I read that Russia has a debt payment due on the 16th, which they may or may not be able to service.

[Syt]

There was a walkout at a Turkish factory in Russia. The (Turkish) employees have their salary pegged to the the US-$, and they didn't accept the new lower exchange rate. They settled on meeting in the middle, halfway between current and pre-sanctions exchange rate.

[Jacob]

Man I've seen plenty of video of knocked out and abandoned Russian gear.

Makes some sense Russia is having success in the south, since they can presumably supply by sea.

Yeah. I wonder how long they make a real push for Odessa.