Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Hungary "demands from the major actors of world politics" to dial down the sabre rattling and provocations and focus on a diplomatic resolution.

The guys must be in a difficult situation. They are nominally NATO but in reality deep in Putin's pockets, and the topic is major war in a neighbouring country with a sizeable Hungarian population.

[Tamas]

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1495765118969421824?s=21

Allegedly this is "head cam footage" recovered from the Ukrainians doing the incursion. Also the type of BMP changed between driving down the road and becoming a flaming wreck, so that's heft wundervaffen those Russian border guards have.

[Tamas]

Theory: the Duma originally voted to ask recognition of the breakaways on the 15th (or was it 14th?). The "emergency" evac message of the breakaway leaders to their people was aired on the 18th but filmed on the 16th. These would indicate the original invasion date DID leak to the Americans, and was changed after they publicised it.

[Josquius]

Then theres the question of how they could have better used that information.
I struggle to think of ideas.

[celedhring]

Then theres the question of how they could have better used that information.
I struggle to think of ideas.

Well, it's made the whole sham more shameful. Wether this is going to make a material effect remains to be seen, but exposing Russia's BS should indeed be done.

[Tamas]

Putin will address the nation soon. Let's hope they'll stop at declaring the breakaway's independence and won't launch the invasion.

[Tamas]

Then theres the question of how they could have better used that information.
I struggle to think of ideas.

Well, it's made the whole sham more shameful. Wether this is going to make a material effect remains to be seen, but exposing Russia's BS should indeed be done.

Yeah, honestly, I am rather impressed with the approach chosen, so far.

[Syt]

So is that his plan? Liberate occupy the breakaway territories and declare it a victory, hoping that it's just enough for him to save face and not too much to create too much of a united front among western countries that can actually harm him?

[Tamas]

So is that his plan? Liberate occupy the breakaway territories and declare it a victory, hoping that it's just enough for him to save face and not too much to create too much of a united front among western countries that can actually harm him?

With all those troops deployed I think his original plan was more ambitious but let's hope it's just that now. However, as this Ukrainian guy points out, you can claim those regions and bite out a far bigger piece of Ukraine than currently rebel-controlled:

Ukraine's former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said any attempt by Russia to expand the territory controlled by pro-Moscow separatists would mean a full-scale war with Ukraine.

The historic borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions are much larger than the exiting pro-Moscow-run areas. Key Ukrainian cities include the port city of Mariupol, Kramatorsk- where Ukraine's army has its eastern HQ - and numerous villages.

[Tamas]

Putin informed Germany's Scholz and France's Macron he will sign decree recognizing independence of separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.

[Syt]

I mean looking at a map, the Dnepr line would be a "natural" defensible line.

[The Larch]

So it seems that Donetsk and Lugansk will be officially recognized by Russia as independent countries.

[Syt]

From the "discussion":

[The Larch]

Seems to be official now:

Ukraine crisis live: Putin will recognise breakaway regions as independent states, Kremlin confirms
Separatist states in Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk regions have been at war with Kyiv since 2014

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of France and Germany on Monday that he intends to sign a decree later today recognizing the two pro-Russian breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement on Monday evening.

"In the near future, the president plans to sign the order," the Kremlin said.

According to the Kremlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron "expressed their disappointment with this development of the situation" but "indicated their readiness to continue contacts".

Earlier on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Russia would be breaching the 2015 Minsk peace accords if it were to recognise the independence of east Ukraine's rebel republics.

The German leader warned that "such a step would be a gross contradiction of the Minsk agreement for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in east Ukraine and a unilateral breach of these deals from the Russian side," Scholz said in a call between Russia's Vladimir Putin.

The EU on Monday evening also has urged Putin not to recognize the Donbas as an independent.

"We call upon President Putin to respect international law and the Minsk agreements and expect him not to recognise the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts," the blocs foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told journalists after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, according to the Reuters news agency.

Vladimir Putin will address the nation in a video address Monday night, the Kremlin said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called an emergency meeting of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council.

[Berkut]

What is the actual status of those areas? Are they actually pro-independence from Ukraine in reality?

If there was a truly free vote there of people who have lived here for more that the last five years that would result in them wanting to break free from Ukraine? Or is this all Russian bullshit?