Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

What is the actual status of those areas? Are they actually pro-independence from Ukraine in reality?

If there was a truly free vote there of people who have lived here for more that the last five years that would result in them wanting to break free from Ukraine? Or is this all Russian bullshit?

Probably like most of those regions in Europe it is such a mix of sentiments that is impossible to untangle geographically.

[Syt]

https://www.rt.com/russia/550139-russia-recognizes-independence-donbass/

Interesting Freudian slip by RT:

The Russian president's decision to declare the independence of the DPR and LPR comes as tensions remain high on the border with Ukraine.

I think they were supposed to write "recognize"

[Tamas]

Putin is starting by explaining Ukraine isn't just a neighbour but part of their history and same blood. Not a promising start.

[The Larch]

What is the actual status of those areas? Are they actually pro-independence from Ukraine in reality?

If there was a truly free vote there of people who have lived here for more that the last five years that would result in them wanting to break free from Ukraine? Or is this all Russian bullshit?

I guess that anyone there that wanted to stay in Ukraine has already moved away from the region.

[Syt]

IIRC the East was traditionally more pro-Russian than the West of the country, and Yanukovych did well in elections in the areas.. How much of that translated into full on separatism - unsure, of course.

[DGuller]

From the "discussion":

I'm surprised Putin seems to be okay with his own state propaganda publicizing such shots.  You'd think that authoritarians like Putin would fear looking weak and scared more than they fear death itself.  These kinds of shots would invite mockery and disdain in cultures far less macho than Russia.

[Syt]

Works as "lonely leader, shouldering the burden" imagery, though.

[The Larch]

Assuming that this recognition of independence doesn't trigger new military action, what do you think is the future for the DNR and LPR, mid-term? Incorporation into Russia like Crimea? Pariah "states" like Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Those are the two most likely options, IMO.

[Tamas]

Putin is still in history lesson mode. This seems like a buildup far larger than it's needed just for the independence recognition. 

[Syt]

I find it interesting that Putin first called France and Germany to tell them about recognizing the separatists, before informing his nation. What was the idea? Gauging their immediate reaction to help determine what to put into his speech?

[Syt]

Putin is still in history lesson mode. This seems like a buildup far larger than it's needed just for the independence recognition. 

Is he reading his essay I linked further up?

[The Larch]

Putin is still in history lesson mode. This seems like a buildup far larger than it's needed just for the independence recognition. 

Is he reading his essay I linked further up?

Which was chock full of BS. I wonder if he's ever been called off about it (from outside of Russia, of course).

[Syt]

I think few people ever read it.

[Syt]

So, I read some comments about his speech that he's basically saying it went all downhill with Lenin, who restructured Russia, eventually leading to its splintering into the breakaway republics in early 90s?

[The Larch]

I think few people ever read it.

I did, and intended to post about it, but then got sidetracked and forgot about it.