Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

  

[Zanza]

  There is also "merkeln" in German which is just sitting out a situation passively.

[Zanza]

Related:

[Crazy_Ivan80]

the memes almost make themselves....

[Sheilbh]

Oliver Carroll went to the opening of an art exhibition at Wagner's newly opened St Petersburg HQ:
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1616723668859555841

Worth remembering that they didn't even officially really exist a year or two ago.

[Legbiter]

Baltic foreign ministers with a joint declaration regarding Leopards.

We, Foreign Ministers, call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard.

https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1616699923994660865

I see several NATO members have started training Ukrainian crews on the tanks. I think they'll send them, with or without German permission. 

[Tonitrus]

That seems to me to be the best course...

If all of Germany's NATO allies decide to send Leopard II regardless, what is Germany going to do?  Freeze out all of their NATO allies/customers from replacement purchases and spare parts?  Initiate a flurry of lawsuits?  That would only make their public image among their NATO allies deeper into shitter.

We (the US) is probably doing the right thing, in not trying to diplomatically push Germany into a corner gutter, but their intransigence is reaching, or is past, the baffling point.

[Josquius]

So the Germans said they weren't blocking the export of Leopards.
No matter what they might actually be saying in private that sounds like a public go ahead to me. The decent governments with leopards should run with it.

Also on the "we won't unless America does" front... Can't help but think America is making excuses by saying they're impractical for Ukraine. They could well send a token number or get in a room with the Germans and Ukrainians to ask directly what Ukraine wants.

[Legbiter]

That seems to me to be the best course...

If all of Germany's NATO allies decide to send Leopard II regardless, what is Germany going to do?  Freeze out all of their NATO allies/customers from replacement purchases and spare parts?  Initiate a flurry of lawsuits?  That would only make their public image among their NATO allies deeper into shitter.

That would burn the German defense industry down to the ground so unlikely.

We (the US) is probably doing the right thing, in not trying to diplomatically push Germany into a corner gutter, but their intransigence is reaching, or is past, the baffling point.

They end up doing the right thing...eventually. The German domestic political situation seems to be a never-ending seesaw between those who've been completely mugged by the war and who desperately wish to go back to the pre-war candyland where the war just peters out and things return to normal, and those who seem to realize the good old days are gone. Scholz comes across as an unserious shitweasel as a result. Absolutely infuriating all the Eastern Europeans and Scandies in the process.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Scholz is lucky there are no elections in Germany right now or he'd probably be wiped out

[Legbiter]

Scholz is lucky there are no elections in Germany right now or he'd probably be wiped out

Eh, you go to war with the German Chancellor you have...

[Sheilbh]

That seems to me to be the best course...

If all of Germany's NATO allies decide to send Leopard II regardless, what is Germany going to do?  Freeze out all of their NATO allies/customers from replacement purchases and spare parts?  Initiate a flurry of lawsuits?  That would only make their public image among their NATO allies deeper into shitter.

I think countries are starting to shift - I believe Poland is now looking to reduce its procurement dependency on Germany and get stuff from the US. I think it is really key and profound from a NATO and EU perspective that a number of German partners want to take steps dealing with something they consider an existential issue and are being blocked by Germany. It may be for very good reasons - but the German government is not explaining those reasons at all - but at the minute it just looks irrational. As those countries live in a world where Russia is a threat to them I think it's very likely that they will be looking to try and de-couple their security from Germany so they don't face the same dependency again.

I think broadly as well that German governments have always had big disagreements with France especially over strategic autonomy and European defence. It's always been expressed with both parties pretending to agree while practically disgreeing. That worked in the 1990-2022 period. In the context of a European war (I'd also add increasing threat from China, the risks of dependencies in energy transition and questions about US desire to lead given the Pacific) I don't think there's space for that sort of kabuki (as Francois Heisbourg put it) anymore.

The German government is refusing calls from NATO and EU allies - again there may be a good reason, but I don't think it's been provided. I think it's heading to a policy position that's incompatible with either NATO solidarity or European strategic autonomy (at a time when we desperately need both and the relationships between countries to be functional).

[Zanza]

Scholz is lucky there are no elections in Germany right now or he'd probably be wiped out

His party would lose a bit, the Conservatives would gain a bit. No wipe out. However, the Conservative voters are even more skeptical of sending weapons to Ukraine than the Social Democrat voters. Whether a Conservative chancellor would act more decisively is by no means sure.

[Zanza]

If all of Germany's NATO allies decide to send Leopard II regardless, what is Germany going to do?

So far apparently no one actually formally applied for an export allowance, but Germany has indicated that they would allow it. That's not the same as Germany sending tanks itself...

The German domestic political situation seems to be a never-ending seesaw between those who've been completely mugged by the war and who desperately wish to go back to the pre-war candyland where the war just peters out and things return to normal, and those who seem to realize the good old days are gone.

Not really...

[Jacob]

Not really...

What's the general German take on Scholz hesitation? And what's your take? What's really going on and why is Scholz acting in a way that makes him looks profoundly feckless?