Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

I can't see it without a Twitter account?

Nope. The Elmo took that away today.

[viper37]

I can't see it without a Twitter account?

Nope. The Elmo took that away today.

Fucker.

[Josephus]

Drones are scary shit. I have heard anecdotal stories about children in Iraq and Afghanistan who hate to go outside on clear, cloudless days, because that's when drones used to come.

[Legbiter]

Interesting thread from Kamil Galeev on how predominantly German firms (Siemens, etc) are keeping the moskal war effort afloat with specialized machine tools. Sure they can't bank with the West but the flow of very specialized components needed for the war effort has just quietly carried on. 

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1675117253887504384

[Jacob]

Interesting thread from Kamil Galeev on how predominantly German firms (Siemens, etc) are keeping the moskal war effort afloat with specialized machine tools. Sure they can't bank with the West but the flow of very specialized components needed for the war effort has just quietly carried on. 

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1675117253887504384

Yeah, he's been blowing that horn since the war started IIRC. Would be good if Germany took action here - though there may be some nuances in play somewhere. We know that Germany often takes a bit of time to gear up to action on this sort of stuff.

[Sheilbh]

On a semi-related front I've seen that there's theories in the UK that a spate of agricultural crime (basically targeting new farming equipment) is maybe being driven by a black market in Russia and Belarus for spare parts (and chips) in those types of machines. And if there's a black market somewhere, criminals around it will try to get involved.

[Iormlund]

Interesting thread from Kamil Galeev on how predominantly German firms (Siemens, etc) are keeping the moskal war effort afloat with specialized machine tools. Sure they can't bank with the West but the flow of very specialized components needed for the war effort has just quietly carried on. 

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1675117253887504384

Can't see Twitter any longer, but I have 20 years experience with machine equipment, especially Siemens.

With a few exceptions the things they make are so widespread it is virtually impossible for some not to end up in Russia via third parties.
HMI displays, CNC machines, PLCs, VFDs and so on are ubiquitous.

If you have a small workshop in Omsk you might be fucked if Siemens can no longer sell in Russia. But a government can surely pay 10 times the listed price to keep a tank repair or ammo plant going.

[Legbiter]

Can't see Twitter any longer, but I have 20 years experience with machine equipment, especially Siemens.

With a few exceptions the things they make are so widespread it is virtually impossible for some not to end up in Russia via third parties.
HMI displays, CNC machines, PLCs, VFDs and so on are ubiquitous.

If you have a small workshop in Omsk you might be fucked if Siemens can no longer sell in Russia. But a government can surely pay 10 times the listed price to keep a tank repair or ammo plant going.

He mentions Siemens but really singles out ZET Chemie who supplies hyper-specialized cutting fluids used in production of precise parts that are then used to make weaponry. Basically russki nuclear blackmail for instance would not be possible without their services and they still operate openly in Russia.

Global supply chains have various bottlenecks like this where 1 component to make it all work is made by 1 or 2 German artisan workshops. And according to him this especially applies to the russki weapons industry.

"They can't hang you if you don't sell them the rope".

His recommendation is to fine them into bankruptcy.

[Zanza]

I can't see Twitter anymore, but the named company states on its website that it fulfills the sanctions on Russia. What's the claim he makes?

His narratives always sound interesting, but they do not seem to be corroborated by others. That makes me skeptical. 

[mongers]

Ukranians are reporting Russians are advancing in several areas of Eastern Ukraine; a prelude to them being 'pocketed' perhaps?

[Legbiter]

I can't see Twitter anymore, but the named company states on its website that it fulfills the sanctions on Russia. What's the claim he makes?

His narratives always sound interesting, but they do not seem to be corroborated by others. That makes me skeptical. 

A link he provides seems to show the company took part in a russian trade show just last March for instance.

[Legbiter]

Russian state tv claiming Priggy was ACKSHUALLY brainwashed by British propaganda. 

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1675791456773058560

Must be a nice ego boost for the brits here. 

[Razgovory]

Russians always seem to blame the British for stuff like this.

[Valmy]

Russians always seem to blame the British for stuff like this.

I know Stalin had a weird obsessive paranoia about the British...granted he was weirdly paranoid about his wife, kids, best friends, work colleagues, superiors, subordinates, casual acquaintances, total strangers, the long deceased, the not yet born, etc.

But maybe that carries on.

I know it was a long held belief that the British secretly controlled the United States by American conspiracy theorists in the 19th and 20th century as well.

It seems silly today but during the 20th century I guess people saw pith helmetted mustachio-twirling red coats everywhere.

[Sheilbh]

Russian state tv claiming Priggy was ACKSHUALLY brainwashed by British propaganda. 

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1675791456773058560

Must be a nice ego boost for the brits here. 

Genuinely feel an official target in Whitehall should be for the British state to be half as capable as the Russians (and Iranians) think it is

I know Stalin had a weird obsessive paranoia about the British...granted he was weirdly paranoid about his wife, kids, best friends, work colleagues, superiors, subordinates, casual acquaintances, total strangers, the long deceased, the not yet born, etc.

Also the Great Game - and that was very much active again in Central Asia in the interwar period. I think the allied intervention in the civil war is something that is largely forgotten now but I thinkk the British sent something like 60,000 troops (I imagine from the Indian Army) against the Soviets which I'd guess was the largest intervention by the allies and a fairly good reason why early Stalin might be paranoid.

The Maisky diaries of the Soviet ambassador to London from 1932-43 are really fascinating on the manoeuvres between London, Paris and Moscow in the 30s - as is Stephen Kotkin in Waiting for Hitler.

Plus I think very different experiences of some shared major wars - which from a Russian perspective very much look like the Brits sitting it out and letting the Russians take a beating/win it for them

Also I don't think there's really any British romanticism about Russia and the steppe in the way you get in German or French culture. And I think that goes both ways I always get the sense (from just reading) that Russia always looked to Paris and Berlin, not London. It's a generalisation but I think there is something to, I think, a French diplomat's comment that France is always naive and overly hopeful about Russia and Britain is about Turkey (both in the past and present)