Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

All the mockery of tank variants aside, it appears that the military situation is not developing to Ukraine's advantage at the moment.  Ukrainians are openly admitting that things are grim in Donbas and they're suffering heavy casualties.  Hopefully it's not a start of a trend of Russians becoming less stupid.

Yet in order to do so they have had to downsize the Donbass operation - which now seems limited to the Severodonetsk salient rather than cutting off the entire region. I think this is going to be their high watermark.

That said, I'm not optimistic the Ukrainians have the ability to kick them out of what they currently occupy, outside of limited operations like the one around Kharkiv - this is headed towards a stalemate in the short/mid term.

Question is whether that is Ukraine's present objective.  While Russia refocused their efforts in Donestk/Luhansk, UKR took advantage to carry out their offensive in an area of greater priority to them - Kharkiv - and achieve a local success.  So what would be their next move?  I would think that the Kherson region would be a greater strategic importance to Ukraine right now than western Luhansk.  If that is so we'd expect to see a fighting retreat in Luhansk with the aim of degrading as much Russian striking power as possible while looking for opportunities for counter-attack in south.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There have been rumors that Ukraine has been building up a force near kherson. But that probably takes a while to be ready.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians are asking for a lot of modern multiple launch rocket systems to outrange enemy artillery and clean up advancing Russian formations grid by grid. 

[Sheilbh]

As mentioned Orban is blocking the oil sanctions at the EU level and apparently sanctions on transport companies ahve also been deleted from the latest draft - at the request of Greece:


I've said before but I think we're probably at the peak of EU-level sanctions/economic pressure now unless there's another escalation. There may, however, be future funding packages for Ukraine and, obviously, member state transfers of weapons are still very important.

[Threviel]

I can understand that. I think the EU needs to focus on kicking the Hungarians out and more support for Ukraine.

[Iormlund]

As much as it would benefit me personally to see them kicked out, I very much doubt that is ever going to happen.

[Zanza]

We need to reduce their EU benefits so much that they leave themselves.

[Josquius]

I said it before, EU is the league of nations. Start from scratch with a new EU.
Let UK come too plz.

Ukrainians are asking for a lot of modern multiple launch rocket systems to outrange enemy artillery and clean up advancing Russian formations grid by grid. 

Isn't that why they were supposed to have the howitzers?

[viper37]

Let UK come too plz.

They were ejected or shunned in any way...
 

[PDH]

Isn't that why they were supposed to have the howitzers?

I think they would want MLRS systems to stonk the advances by more massed troops.

[grumbler]

Can't ever have too much boom in a conventional war.

[Legbiter]

American and Brit volunteers adding a Russian BTR to the pile somewhere around Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1530067008246751233?cxt=HHwWgoC90cv18bsqAAAA

[Crazy_Ivan80]

seems UKR has done something of a counterattack near Cherson, but it's all rumour so far

[Admiral Yi]

American and Brit volunteers adding a Russian BTR to the pile somewhere around Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1530067008246751233?cxt=HHwWgoC90cv18bsqAAAA

With two camera angles!

[grumbler]

American and Brit volunteers adding a Russian BTR to the pile somewhere around Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1530067008246751233?cxt=HHwWgoC90cv18bsqAAAA

With two camera angles!

Soon in 3D at your neatest IMAX theater.